Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
408 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Through tonight: Squall line with locally strong to severe wind
gusts is currently progressing eastward across the area early this
morning. Despite the time of day, the environment ahead of this line
continues to be characterized by strong instability per latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Low level wind shear remains favorable for scattered
wind damage along the line, particularly with any segments that take
on a more ENE motion. As the line becomes more progressive, flash
flooding is a decreasing threat, but some flooding is already
ongoing across portions of the Delta this morning. Both of these
threats will end with the passage of the convective line. The
current Flash Flood Watch will be pared back as ongoing flooding
subsides.

Though it is unclear how well the line will continue to hold
together as it begins to cross I-55, there is increasing confidence
the remnant cold pool will make it across the majority of the area
this morning. Though these storms will end within the next few
hours, they will have implications on the forecast for the rest of
today. Most synoptic model guidance has a poor handle on eastward
progress of the MCS, and as a result, they are overdoing
instability, warming, redevelopment through the day. Much of the
available CAM guidance, on the other hand, appears to have a better
handle on things. POPs were cut back quite a bit for today,
especially in the NW as lingering stratiform rain tapers off and a
convectively processed airmass encompasses the area through much of
the day. Temperatures and dewpoints were also adjusted downward. The
best opportunity for airmass modification to allow for redevelopment
will be across south/east MS, and that is where the highest POPs are
focused for this afternoon.

Tonight, we could see somewhat of a resurgence of more moist air
trying to return northward across the region. This could allow for
isolated showers to develop overnight as a weak shortwave approaches
the area from the west. /DL/

Tuesday through Sunday:

With the mid-level trough exiting to the east, more zonal flow
begins to settle in. However a small shortwave will develop and
bring scattered showers and storms to our region on Tuesday
afternoon. The synoptic models suggest that this shortwave will
stick around through much of the week even as ridging builds over a
large part of the central CONUS. The shortwave will provide a
weakness in the mid-level flow and a focal point for continued
daily, afternoon convection. By Friday, the upper ridge has fully
developed. With the models showing rather impressive lapse rates
this week (or at least relative to normal), a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out on just about any day this week.

The coverage of storms is expected to be greatest on Tuesday and
such will inhibit high temperatures just a bit. Temperatures will
remain near normal through this period, with daytime mixing expected
to be sufficient enough to limit major heat stress issues. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
A complex of TSRA is moving into N LA, SE AR, and NW MS this early
morning and will build gradually SE across the remainder of the
area through the early morning hours. These storms should
eventually lose intensity overnight, but in the mean time, brief
reductions to IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings in +TSRA are
possible, with isolated gusts to 50 kt possible as well. MVFR
stratus are possible around MEI/HBG/PIB later this morning through
shortly after sunrise. Winds will shift from southerly to
northwesterly behind the complex of storms through the morning.
Outside of the storms and early morning stratus, VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Some
redevelopment of SHRA or TSRA is possible later today, but
confidence is coverage/placement is too low at this time to
include at any TAF site. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  72  89  71 /  54  23  43  30
Meridian      90  71  91  71 /  60  24  35  32
Vicksburg     87  72  89  72 /  35  23  49  28
Hattiesburg   91  72  92  72 /  59  19  28  27
Natchez       87  72  89  71 /  53  16  44  29
Greenville    87  71  86  71 /  25  24  48  30
Greenwood     86  72  87  71 /  42  24  47  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035.

LA...None.
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

10/DL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ025>027-036-240915-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Leflore MS-Holmes MS-
326 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...CARROLL...
WESTERN GRENADA AND LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 326 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Minter City to near Swiftown. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Minter City and Sunnyside around 330 AM CDT.
  Sidon around 345 AM CDT.
  Seven Pines and Holcomb around 355 AM CDT.
  Black Hawk and Bew Springs around 400 AM CDT.
  Coila and Malmaison around 405 AM CDT.
  North Carrollton around 410 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Carrollton,
Schlater, Morgan City and Cruger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8986 3329 9033 3331 9034 3329 9036
      3329 9045 3381 9035 3381 9018 3379 9017
      3376 9019 3376 9025 3374 9031 3370 9030
      3369 9028 3374 9024 3372 9022 3372 9014
      3381 9014 3382 8993 3390 8993 3390 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 252DEG 34KT 3377 9030 3332 9040

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
334 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

MSZ053-054-059-061-062-240930-
Jefferson MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-Claiborne MS-
334 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAIBORNE...WESTERN LINCOLN...
EASTERN JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN AND WESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM
CDT...

At 334 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Rocky Springs to Hamburg. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rocky Springs and Hermanville around 340 AM CDT.
  Carpenter around 355 AM CDT.
  Bude and New Hope around 400 AM CDT.
  Mccall Creek and Dentville around 410 AM CDT.
  Vaughn and Center Point around 425 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Roxie and Meadville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9115 3208 9094 3208 9091 3210 9092
      3213 9091 3212 9088 3212 9086 3211 9072
      3205 9072 3205 9041 3135 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 279DEG 30KT 3205 9087 3158 9105

JC

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