Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Local radars show scattered TSRA that wl affect HKS-JAN-MEI-PIB-
HBG this morning and bring reduced flight restrictions through
16Z. Additional TSRA development is expected this aftn into early
evening. Otherwise, a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs w prevail this
morning til 15Z. After 15Z VFR conds wl prevail away from TSRA
activity. VFR conds wl prevail tonight til 09Z when MVFR/IFR cigs
wl be psbl in the se and nw. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
showed the mid/upper level low centered over Arkansas with drier
air wrapping around the low and across our CWA from the
southwest. Satellite derived PWATs showed the tropical airmass
with PWATs in excess of 2 inches now east of Mississippi. The JAN
00Z Fri sounding had a PWAT of 1.63 inches and our PWATs wl likely
remain between 1.5-1.7in through tonight. The mid/upper level low
will track slowly east today and tonight and become centered over
western Tennessee by Saturday morning. Circulation around the low
will aid convection today and this evening before convection
wains later tonight. Local radar had scattered storms along the
Interstate 20 corridor and along and just north of Highway 84. A
few of these storms have become strong to severe with damaging
wind potential. Isolated severe storms will remain possible today
over the southeast two thirds of our CWA, especially during peak
heating. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but, hail
to the size of quarters will also be possible. The potential for
heavy rain and tornadic development is much less than yesterday.
Breaks in the cloud cover today should allow temperatures to top
out in the mid to upper 80s or near normal at most locations. The
potential for severe storms should end by early evening and most
of the convection should see a most distinct diurnal trend and
dissipate by midnight. /22/

Saturday through Friday:  A rainy pattern to finish out the
weekend will gradually give way to drier and seasonably cooler
weather by next work week. The forecast period will start off
tomorrow morning with the closed upper low that has been plaguing
the area off to our northeast over central Tennessee. Another
afternoon of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is
expected as plentiful moisture remains in place beneath
increasingly northwest flow on the back side of the low. SBCAPE
values are progged to increase into the 2500-3000 J/kg range,
however forecast soundings reveal skinny CAPE profiles that will
be detrimental to more robust updrafts. As such, given the
continued tropical nature of the airmass, expect mostly showers
with lightning only expected within the strongest updrafts that
can achieve charge separation within the mixed phase region of
the storm. Heading into Sunday, the closed low is expected to open
into a shortwave trough as it interacts with a northern stream
trough dropping out of the Inter-Mountain West. This will place
more of the region in drier northwest flow and will keep any
afternoon showers and isolated storms confined to eastern
Mississippi.

By next work week, a surface cold front will move through the region
Monday evening into Tuesday morning as northern stream troughing
takes hold of the weather pattern. A few isolated showers will be
possible Monday afternoon mainly east of I-55, but overall
conditions will start to dry out following this weekend's stretch of
wet weather. A drier and cooler airmass will filter into the area in
the wake of the frontal passage with dewpoints dropping into the mid
to upper 50s. Surface high pressure sliding into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley will help relax the pressure gradient with
calm winds and mostly clear skies supporting the potential for
several nights of efficient radiational cooling by June standards.
Lows are expected to drop into the mid to low 60s with several
readings in the upper 50s not out of the question. Daytime high
temperatures will also be slightly cooler in the middle 80s, but it
will be difficult to stay cooler during the day due to the high June
sun angle and mostly sunny skies. /TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  70  86  71 /  63  47  50  17
Meridian      86  71  86  71 /  78  64  60  31
Vicksburg     85  70  86  71 /  71  39  41   8
Hattiesburg   87  71  88  72 /  77  70  59  32
Natchez       85  69  86  71 /  74  44  42   9
Greenville    84  71  85  71 /  68  33  33   6
Greenwood     84  71  84  71 /  79  42  54  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
504 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>030-034>036-040-
041-081015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-
Sharkey-
504 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

LAZ024>026-MSZ031>033-037>039-042>066-072>074-081015-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
504 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to
the size of quarters are possible mainly this afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE JAN AIRPORT       32.31N 90.08W
06/07/2019  M44 MPH          RANKIN             MS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT JACKSON MEDGAR WILEY EVERS
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE HAWKINS FIELD     32.31N 90.21W
06/07/2019                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF PRENTISS AND CAPITOL
            STREETS.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSZ055-071245-
Simpson MS-
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SIMPSON COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM
CDT...

At 700 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Union, or 7 miles west of Pinola, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pinola around 715 AM CDT.
  Mendenhall around 730 AM CDT.
  Sanatorium around 740 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include D'Lo and Braxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 9014 3183 9013 3184 9015 3185 9015
      3186 9013 3189 9014 3190 9015 3205 9016
      3205 8977 3182 8977 3181 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 266DEG 24KT 3191 9008

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
733 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MSZ049-050-055-056-071300-
Smith MS-Scott MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
733 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...SMITH AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL
800 AM CDT...

At 733 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Martinville, or 9 miles north of Magee, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Raleigh and Burns around 745 AM CDT.
  Pineville around 755 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sylvarena and Puckett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8978 3209 8983 3229 8933 3196 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 240DEG 49KT 3200 8970

JC

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