River Flood Warning 59, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
ARKLAMISS...

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this evening through tonight:

Overall the severe weather potential remains in effect through
this evening as the cold front swings through the area. This is
leading to widespread shower & thunderstorm development across the
region, with quite a few strong rotating updrafts developing
across the region. The juxtaposition of strong mid-deep layer
shear, low-level long clockwise turning hodographs & widespread
destabilization, will continue to bring the threat for severe
weather through the ArkLaMiss. We still to maintain the threat but
some of the potential has likely been somewhat hindered due to the
veer-back-veer issues in the local sounding profiles. Timing has
been slightly adjusted to around 7PM in the Jackson metro & I-55
corridor & through early evening (8-9PM) in eastern Mississippi.
These storms could still produce very large hail, widespread
damaging winds & strong tornadoes, especially along & north of the
I-20 corridor in the "Enhanced" risk area. Overall, main
adjustments were to clear out the back side of the tornado watch &
HWO graphics accordingly. Main adjustments to the flooding were
to remove some of areas west of the river from the "Enhanced" as
this is more depending on the ongoing convection & previous
flooding. Lastly, left the "Elevated" & wind advisory going due to
some brief gusts &/or sustained winds up towards advisory
criteria but overall it is getting a little less frequent than
earlier today, when it was easily reaching criteria.

Expect the severe weather potential move out tonight by around
8-9PM or so, which coincides with the end of the tornado watch as
well. Right now, it seems as though as the forcing swings into the
area, this will lead the cold front driving quickly into the area
& driving out most rain chances by or just after midnight. Due to
this, expect strong isentropic subsidence in the wake of the cold
front & drier air & clearing skies into tonight. Lows will fall
closer to normals in the Delta in the low 40s to mid-upper 40s to
low 50s in central & southeastern areas.

Sunday through next week (Friday):

Expect a much cooler & less active pattern as strong ridging
builds into the region. This will lead to cooler than normal
temperatures as PWs fall into quarter inch or less by Sunday &
Sunday night. Expect mid-level zonal pattern to persist across the
region, with a reinforcing cold front to stall just off to the
north over the central Plains to mid-Mississippi Valley. This will
lead to near normal highs Sunday & into the start of the week on
Monday. Due to clear skies & somewhat lighter winds, this could
lead to some potential for some radiational cooling, other than
some lighter northerly winds in the area.

Mid-level zonal flow, some increasing low level moisture & a
stalled boundary/baroclinic zone to the south over the Gulf of
Mexico will keep some light rain chances across the southern half
of the area Tuesday & most of the area into mid-week (i.e.
Wednesday). Some warm-air advection will lead to increasing warmth
but even with that being said, expect increasing clouds, which
could hinder some of that warmth.

Later in the week, expect another mid-level disturbance to dive
down from the northwest, helping bring back some better moisture &
mid-level flow across the area. Due to increasing warmth &
moisture around next Thursday-Friday, can't rule out some more
organized convection & some storms around that time. Regardless,
expect hazardous weather potential to remain mostly low through
the week. Lastly, another strong cold front may move through by
late week, bringing a gradual end to rain & storm chances by late
next week & into the weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR ceilings will continue through much of the afternoon,
although VFR ceilings may periodically occur. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will occur across the area this afternoon. A squall
line of thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front, will sweep across
the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening with
the cold front lagging shortly behind. Winds ahead of the front
will be strong from the south with sustained around 20 knots and
gusts from 30 to 40 knots. Winds will switch to the west and
northwest behind the front later tonight at 10 to 20 knots with
gusts from 20 to 30 knots. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  60  37  62 /  68   1   2   1
Meridian      50  64  37  63 /  82   3   2   1
Vicksburg     45  59  37  61 /  17   1   2   1
Hattiesburg   53  66  38  64 /  58   2   1   2
Natchez       46  61  38  62 /  22   1   2   2
Greenville    43  56  35  59 /   6   1   1   1
Greenwood     44  57  35  60 /  41   1   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>037-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ008-009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ARZ075.

&&

DC

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