Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 49, NWS Jackson, MS

February 20, 2019Lawrence County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Feb 20, 2019, 9:29 PM CST for Lawrence County, Mississippi. It took effect at Feb 21, 2019, 3:36 PM CST. It was in force for 50 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 20, 2019, 9:29 PM CST (03:29 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 21, 2019, 3:36 PM CST
Expired
Feb 23, 2019, 6:00 PM CST
In force
50 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Lawrence County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pearl River near Monticello (MTCM6). The gauge peaked at 21.78 ft at Feb 24, 2019, 7:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderate1015202502/2102/2202/2302/2402/25
Action stage
21 ft
Minor stage
22 ft
Moderate stage
25 ft
Major stage
33 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02488500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

415 
WGUS44 KJAN 210329
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
929 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019


...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Please note that forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has 
occurred along with forecast rainfall for the next 24 hours. River 
forecasts in the Tombigbee River Basin have an additional 48 hours of
rainfall added. Rainfall amounts greater than forecast may take the 
rivers higher.


Additional information is available at:  
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC029-127-220929-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0048.190221T2200Z-190223T0600Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.190221T2200Z.190222T0600Z.190222T1800Z.NO/
929 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* from Thursday afternoon to late Friday night.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
  and will continue to rise to near 25.5 feet early Friday morning.  
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Widespread flooding of low pastureland and 
  bottomland is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  21.2 Wed 08 PM  23.5  25.4  22.7  25.5 12 AM 02/22


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-220929-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0049.190221T2136Z-190224T0000Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.190221T2136Z.190222T1200Z.190223T1200Z.NO/
929 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* from Thursday afternoon to Saturday evening.
* At  9:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
  and will continue to rise to near 22.5 feet early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  18.3 Wed 09 PM  21.0  22.5  22.0  22.5 12 PM 02/22


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$
3 follow-up statements
418 
WGUS84 KJAN 211518
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
918 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Please note that forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has 
occurred along with forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours. Rainfall 
amounts greater than forecast may take the rivers higher.


Additional information is available at:  
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-222118-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0048.190222T2200Z-190225T1800Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.190222T2200Z.190223T1800Z.190225T0600Z.NO/
918 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
  and will continue to rise to near 25.5 feet Saturday evening.  
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Widespread flooding of low pastureland and 
  bottomland is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  23.0 Thu 08 AM  24.6  25.4  25.2  25.5 06 PM 02/23


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-222118-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0049.190222T0200Z-190226T0600Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.190222T0200Z.190222T1800Z.190225T1800Z.NO/
918 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* from this evening to late Monday night.
* At  8:15 AM Thursday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this evening and 
  will continue to rise to near 22.5 feet early Saturday morning.  
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  20.8 Thu 08 AM  22.3  22.5  22.3  22.5 12 AM 02/23


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$
582 
WGUS84 KJAN 220132
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
732 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Strong River At D'lo affecting Simpson County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Please note that forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has 
occurred along with forecast rainfall for the next 24 hours. River 
forecasts in the Tombigbee River Basin have an additional 48 hours of
rainfall added. Rainfall amounts greater than forecast may take the 
rivers higher.


Additional information is available at:  
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC029-127-230731-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0048.190222T2200Z-190225T1800Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.190222T2200Z.190223T1800Z.190225T0600Z.NO/
732 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* from Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At 6:30 PM Thursday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
  and will continue to rise to near 25.5 feet early Saturday 
  afternoon.  
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Widespread flooding of low pastureland and 
  bottomland is occurring.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  23.6 Thu 06 PM  24.4  25.4  25.2  25.5 12 PM 02/23


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-230731-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0049.190222T1330Z-190226T0600Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.190222T1330Z.190223T0000Z.190225T1800Z.NO/
732 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* from Friday morning to late Monday night.
* At 7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 21.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow morning 
  and will continue to rise to near 22.5 feet tomorrow evening.  
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  21.1 Thu 07 PM  21.9  22.5  22.3  22.5 06 PM 02/22


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

MSC127-230731-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-190223T1516Z/
/DLAM6.1.ER.190221T1445Z.190222T1200Z.190223T0316Z.NO/
732 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Strong River At D'lo
* until Saturday morning.
* At 6:45 PM Thursday the stage was 25.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet 
  tomorrow morning.  
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Water begins to inundate farmland along the 
  river. Farmers should take necessary action to protect live stock 
  and remove farm equipment.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Strong River 
D'lo           25  25.9 Thu 07 PM  26.5  23.1  16.8  26.5 06 AM 02/22


&&


LAT...LON 3192 9009 3200 8997 3205 8988 3205 8973
      3189 8989 3182 9005             



$$
893 
WGUS84 KJAN 221633
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1033 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Please note that forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has 
occurred along with forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours. 
Rainfall amounts greater than forecast may take the rivers higher.

Additional information is available at:  
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-221703-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190225T1800Z/
/ROCM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1033 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 23.9 feet this
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of bottomlands is occurring 
  in the immediate proximity of the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  23.8 Fri 09 AM  23.8  23.7  23.3 23.9 tda pm        


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-221703-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-190226T0600Z/
/MTCM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1033 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello.
* At 10:15 AM Friday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 21.2 feet. The 
  river will fall to 21.0 feet by tomorrow morning. 

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  21.2 Fri 10 AM  21.0  20.9  20.7            


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 20, 9:26 PM CST, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 20, 9:26 PM CST, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
926 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather will continue tonight into tomorrow morning as a
frontal boundary continues to drift back and forth across the
region beneath sustained moist southwesterly flow aloft. The
frontal boundary pushed through much of the area today and is
currently analyzed over southeast Mississippi where it has
stalled. The boundary is progged to lift back north overnight with
increasing isentropic ascent and strong baroclinicity supporting
another round of showers and thunderstorms. This band of
convection will slowly lift northwest overnight into tomorrow
morning with the slowest movement over southeast Mississippi
generally along and southeast of the Natchez Trace. It is over
this area where training convection could result in additional
flooding issues, especially for locations that already observed heavy
rainfall and flash flooding earlier today, as 1-2" of rain with
locally higher amounts is expected. This convection will reside in
an environment supportive of enhanced rainfall rates owing to
upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, 1.5" PWATs, respectable deep
moisture convergence and H850 dewpoints of 11-13 C. The main focus
for the forecast update was to adjust PoPs accordingly in addition
to expanding the limited flood threat in the HWO/graphics to
include the Jackson metro. Latest suite of hi-res CAM guidance is
in agreement on a swath of 1-2" with locally higher amounts
across the limited threat area, however uncertainty exists with
regards to the exact placement of these totals. Flooding issues
could be exacerbated if these locally higher amounts are realized
within the same axis from Brookhaven to Mendenhall to Forest that
observed widespread flooding today. /TW/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Thursday...The showers and storms have cleared
from most of the area this afternoon but this will be short lived.
The frontal boundary will be stalled over the Pine Belt region this
evening, but as another short wave approaches the area overnight the
front will begin to move back to the northwest. As the boundary
moves back to the north, showers and thunderstorms will be on the
increase once again early on Thursday. These storms will push
northward through the morning into the afternoon hours. Due to the
already saturated soils, will issue a limited risk for flooding over
the southern and eastern portions of the area where heavy rainfall
fell earlier today. These areas could see another 1-2 inches
Thursday morning through the afternoon hours. With the storms being
elevated and also limited instability on Thursday, expect the storms
to remain sub-severe, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
/15/

Thursday night through early next week...

Expect showers/storms to become widespread by Thursday night with
the flash flood threat rapidly increasing over the Delta region
into NC MS by that time, in areas that can not hold much if any
additional rainfall. Will be issuing a flash flood watch for this
area and upping the hazardous weather outlook/graphic threat to
significant as well for the Thu aftn through Saturday night time
frame to account for what will likely be a significant flooding
event. Farther southeast, QPF is less on average and rainfall
hasn't been quite as heavy, but cannot rule out some localized FF
issues at any locations given the continued strong moisture
transport in areas that manage to develop. Otherwise, the severe
threat for late week into the weekend has not changed much. /EC/

By the daytime on Friday, low-level humidity and increasingly
warm temperatures will become more supportive of isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms developing south of the front. This
activity will be driven by daytime heating, and some capping may
limit overall coverage of thunderstorm development. Therefore a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms has been introduced to the
forecast for the day on Friday - for northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in Mississippi mainly along and west
of Interstate 55.

A separate round of severe thunderstorms is anticipated for Saturday
as the western CONUS trough swings across the country and lifts out
of the Plains during the day. Continued warm, moist advection ahead
of a deepening surface low  and stronger dynamics as a jet streak
rounds the base of the trough will bring a better chance for severe
thunderstorms to develop. Overall forcing will favor northern
portions of our forecast area, where the current Slight risk has
been expanded eastward to encompass all of northern and north-
central Mississippi for Saturday. A nice punch of dry air in the
wake of a cold front Saturday night will clear out rain chances
through at least Monday, and the upper-air pattern will become zonal
across the country. Rain chances start to creep back northward
Monday night into Tuesday as flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns. At
this time, there are no concerns for flooding rains or severe
weather early next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
A mixture of flight categories is occurring this evening from VFR
to LIFR. This is due to low stratus and perhaps some light
drizzle/mist lingering across the area. This will continue through
the night. With the cold front stalled over the southeast, rain
and perhaps some thunderstorms will be possible overnight, lifting
north and affecting other TAF sites through the day tomorrow. This
will keep low ceilings and vis at all TAF sites with minimal
chance to return to VFR over the next 24 hours. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       50  61  53  75 /  80  92  77  68
Meridian      53  64  54  76 /  92  59  63  64
Vicksburg     47  56  51  74 /  39  91  88  72
Hattiesburg   58  73  63  79 /  80  51  51  43
Natchez       50  60  54  76 /  83  88  73  68
Greenville    40  53  48  65 /   0  95  92  84
Greenwood     43  54  49  69 /   3  95  94  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MSZ018-019-025>042.

LA...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for LAZ007>009-015.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

TW/NF/15/28/EC
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 20, 9:02 PM CST, 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
902 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>030-034>036-040>042-220315-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
902 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Thursday

Expect showers and storms with the threat for heavy rainfall to
return Thursday afternoon. Due to recent heavy rainfall, a
significant flash flood threat could develop quickly with the
potential for roads to be closed and homes and businesses to be
threatened by flood waters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

A significant threat for flooding will continue into the weekend
with additional rounds of showers and storms and heavy rainfall
expected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Friday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday, especially across
northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in Mississippi
north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is still
several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to the
forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

LAZ015-016-MSZ031>033-037>039-047-220315-
Richland-Madison LA-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Warren-
902 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Thursday

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Thursday afternoon

Expect showers and storms with the threat for heavy rainfall to
return Thursday afternoon. Due to recent heavy rainfall, an
elevated flash flood threat could develop quickly.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

An elevated threat for flooding will continue into the weekend
with additional rounds of showers and storms and heavy rainfall
expected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Friday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday, especially across
northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in Mississippi
north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is still
several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to the
forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

LAZ023>026-MSZ043-044-053-220315-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Madison MS-Leake-Claiborne-
902 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Thursday

Expect showers and storms with the threat for heavy rainfall to
return Thursday afternoon resulting in a limited threat for flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

A limited threat for flooding will continue into the weekend with
additional rounds of showers and storms possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Friday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

MSZ045-046-048>052-054>066-072>074-220315-
Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
902 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of tonight through Thursday

Showers and storms will redevelop later tonight and continue into
Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall could result in localized
flash flooding concerns, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall and flooding today.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

A limited threat for flooding will continue for late this week
and into the weekend as additional showers and storms will be
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Friday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

1

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 20, 7:55 PM CST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
755 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE JOHNS             32.14N 89.83W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON ASHLEY ROAD.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Feb 20, 7:59 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
759 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW JOHNS             32.11N 89.85W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON SPRINGWATER
            RANCH ROAD.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Feb 20, 8:00 PM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
800 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE PUCKETT           32.10N 89.74W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON OIL WELL ROAD.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Feb 20, 8:05 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW PUCKETT            32.10N 89.79W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 18 NEAR
            HIGHWAY 43. THIS AREA WAS TEMPORARILY CLOSED
            BY MDOT DUE TO THE FLOODING.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Feb 20, 8:08 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW WHITE OAK         32.05N 89.74W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON LIB VANDERFORD
            ROAD.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Feb 20, 8:13 PM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
813 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 AM     HAIL             3 WSW COLLINS           31.62N 89.61W
02/19/2019  E0.25 INCH       COVINGTON          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0517 AM     HAIL             COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
02/19/2019  E0.88 INCH       COVINGTON          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0519 AM     HAIL             3 NE COLLINS            31.66N 89.51W
02/19/2019  E0.25 INCH       COVINGTON          MS   PUBLIC

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EUPORA                  33.54N 89.27W
02/19/2019                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED IN EUPORA.

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARROLLTON              33.51N 89.92W
02/19/2019                   CARROLL            MS   NEWSPAPER

            LOCAL NEWSPAPER REPORTS MUDSLIDE IN
            CARROLLTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AT THE CORNER
            OF WASHINGTON AND COLLEGE STREETS, NEAR THE
            CARROLL ACADEMY GYM.

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N COILA               33.44N 89.97W
02/19/2019                   CARROLL            MS   NEWSPAPER

            A RESIDENT ON COUNTY ROAD 148 HAD TO BE
            EVACUATED FROM HER HOME TUESDAY DUE TO HEAVY
            FLOODING AROUND HER HOME. ACCORDING TO BEAT
            4 SUPERVISOR CLAUDE FLUKER, WATER WAS ALMOST
            TO HER DOORSTEP BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E CUMBERLAND          33.62N 89.05W
02/19/2019                   WEBSTER            MS   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING ON BERRY ROAD IN DANCY.
            REPORT AND VIDEO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST POINT              33.61N 88.65W
02/19/2019                   CLAY               MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND STILL ONGOING
            ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0122 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE AVON              33.22N 90.97W
02/20/2019                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON DOUGLAS ROAD
            NEAR AVON DARLOVE ROAD.

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIANOLA               33.45N 90.64W
02/20/2019                   SUNFLOWER          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF MINOR STREET FLOODING IN
            INDIANOLA.

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E GREENWOOD           33.52N 90.18W
02/20/2019                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING IN GREENWOOD.

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ITTA BENA               33.50N 90.32W
02/20/2019                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING IN ITTA BENA.

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTH CARROLLTON        33.52N 89.92W
02/20/2019                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS FLOODED, DESCRIBED AS SOME AREAS
            UNDER WATER, IN N CARROLLTON AND IN THE
            COUNTY.

0710 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE GORE SPRINGS      33.74N 89.53W
02/20/2019                   GRENADA            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER A PART OF PLEASANT GROVE RD.

0740 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW PUCKETT            32.03N 89.83W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON BRANDON-WILLIAMSBURG RD.

0755 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W ELLIOTT             33.68N 89.76W
02/20/2019                   GRENADA            MS   PUBLIC

            BOLTON HILL RD UNDER WATER.

0824 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW HOMEWOOD          32.22N 89.56W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS CO RD 558C.

0825 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E MENDENHALL          31.96N 89.85W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 540 NEAR HWY 49 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0829 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W DLO                31.98N 89.93W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MS 540 AT JOHN AYERS RD IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

0830 AM     HAIL             MABEN                   33.56N 89.08W
02/20/2019  E0.70 INCH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN
            MABEN.

0835 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE POLKVILLE          32.21N 89.68W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PART OF SCR 538 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0854 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CATO                32.09N 89.89W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            DRIVEWAY AND CULVERT FLOODED IN CATO.

0910 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW JOHNS             32.11N 89.85W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON SPRINGWATER
            RANCH ROAD.

0915 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE JOHNS             32.14N 89.83W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON ASHLEY ROAD.

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N JOHNS               32.16N 89.84W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON MCINTYRE ROAD.

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE JOHNS              32.18N 89.78W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON DIAMOND D LAKE
            ROAD.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW ENTERPRISE        31.50N 90.39W
02/20/2019                   LINCOLN            MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MS 583 BETWEEN HWY 84 AND HOLMESVILLE RD
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN MULTIPLE PLACES.

0930 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW LORENA            32.20N 89.59W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD
            558, WITH A FEW OTHER SMALL TREES DOWN
            ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W EUPORA              33.54N 89.30W
02/20/2019                   WEBSTER            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MT. VERNON RD COMPLETELY SUBMERGED UNDER
            FLOWING FLOOD WATER.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW BURNS              32.18N 89.61W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN N PART OF COUNTY.
            PART OF HWY 481 WAS FLOODED AS WELL AND
            BRIEFLY CLOSED.

0949 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW MERIT             31.90N 89.93W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MS 43 CLOSED BETWEEN MS 13 AND MS 28 DUE TO
            FLOODING OVER ROADWAY.

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW PUCKETT            32.10N 89.79W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 18 NEAR
            HIGHWAY 43. THIS AREA WAS TEMPORARILY CLOSED
            BY MDOT DUE TO THE FLOODING.

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE PUCKETT           32.10N 89.74W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON OIL WELL ROAD.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MENDENHALL          31.98N 89.87W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER COVERING US 49 ROADWAY BETWEEN MS 13
            AND EAST STREET.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW WHITE OAK         32.05N 89.74W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ON LIB VANDERFORD
            ROAD.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW WHITE OAK         32.13N 89.72W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS HIGHWAY 541
            BETWEEN HIGHWAY 13 AND HIGHWAY 18.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW MENDENHALL        31.97N 89.89W
02/20/2019                   SIMPSON            MS   NEWSPAPER

            BEDFORD CARE CENTER HAD TO BE EVACUATED DUE
            TO FLOOD WATER IN THE BUILDING.

1010 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E MORTON              32.36N 89.59W
02/20/2019                   SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY AT US 80 AND OLD
            HWY 80.

1026 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FOREST                  32.36N 89.48W
02/20/2019                   SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            FRONT STREET FLOODED WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N HILLSBORO           32.47N 89.49W
02/20/2019                   SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS HUGHES RD. PICTURE
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S WINONA              33.45N 89.73W
02/20/2019                   MONTGOMERY         MS   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY SOUTH OF THE
            WINONA AIRPORT.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PUCKETT                 32.08N 89.78W
02/20/2019                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL PICTURES OF FLOODING AROUND PUCKETT
            INCLUDING WATER INTO A HOME.

1050 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W PHILADELPHIA        32.77N 89.16W
02/20/2019                   NESHOBA            MS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS FROG LEVEL
            RD.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE STEELE             32.45N 89.36W
02/20/2019                   SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF WATER ACROSS WILLIS RD.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTER RIDGE            31.95N 89.48W
02/20/2019                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PART OF HWY 37 WAS FLOODED.

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE HOPE               32.72N 89.21W
02/20/2019                   NESHOBA            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FAIRGROUNDS FLOODED WITH WATER UP TO THE
            CABIN PORCHES.

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE MERIDIAN           32.37N 88.70W
02/20/2019                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED IN MERIDIAN DUE TO
            WATER ACROSS THE ROADWAYS.

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      QUITMAN                 32.04N 88.72W
02/20/2019                   CLARKE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS AND 3 BUSINESSES FLOODED IN
            QUITMAN.

1220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAUREL                  31.70N 89.14W
02/20/2019                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

DC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 20, 9:29 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANCopiah, Simpson51 hr
Feb 20, 10:15 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANJefferson Davis, Lawrence45 min
Feb 20, 10:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Simpson, Smith48 min
Feb 20, 11:10 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANNewton35 min
Feb 20, 11:36 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLauderdale24 min
Feb 21, 12:23 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLauderdale37 min
Feb 21, 2:11 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSmith34 min
Feb 21, 9:01 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake7 days
Feb 21, 9:02 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSimpson28 hr
Feb 21, 10:03 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLowndes6 days
Feb 21, 5:35 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANBolivar, Humphreys, Leflore, Sharkey, Sunflower, Washington11 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.