River Flood Warning 28, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
IFR and MVFR conditions prevailing across the region to start the
period as areas of light to moderate rain and low stratus are
restricting ceilings and visibility. Some +RA will be possible at
times before 00Z Thursday, causing brief periods of IFR or lower
visibility. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east
throughout the period as drier air brings and end to precipitation
and the stratus layer breaks up and clears out. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall not too many changes needed for the near-term, but the
risk for severe weather was upgraded to a Slight risk for far
southeastern portions of the area from around Columbia, MS to
Laurel, MS and areas southeast from that line. Limited instability
of around 500 J/kg CAPE has developed in those areas ahead of a
cold front moving east, which may support brief severe
thunderstorm development with strong wind shear in place. The cold
front and more stable air is already reaching the Interstate 59
corridor, so the window for severe weather possibility will
quickly diminish as we head into the early afternoon. Elsewhere,
showers will continue into the evening tonight and a steady drop
in temperatures as colder air settles into the region. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight:

A shortwave trough will bring widespread rainfall to the ArkLaMiss
region today, and in addition, the potential for a few severe
storms and locally heavy rainfall over eastern MS. As of early
this morning, the associated surface cold front is nearing the
Mississippi River, and it is depicted by a sharp temperature
gradient with temperatures falling up to 20 deg F in little time.
The density change in the airmass combined with strongly forced
shallow convection is resulting in strong wind gusts with frontal
passage. However, deep convection and a marginal risk for severe
weather will develop later this morning/early afternoon farther east
when increasing deep layer and BL moisture (PW ~ 1.5 in, Sfc Td ~
mid 60s) are expected to energize the atmosphere. Strong wind shear
should support an organized QLCS with some wind damage/tornado
potential over mainly the Pine Belt region, this in spite of very
weak instability.

The window of time for severe weather potential looks to be
relatively short and should close quickly early this afternoon as
the front pushes east of the area. Given the amount of forcing and
moisture, a limited threat for flooding exists for eastern MS as
well. Localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches in a few
hours would be possible in association with the deep convection
per recent HRRR runs. Otherwise, look for colder temperatures to
spread across the forecast area behind the front this afternoon
and evening with clearing skies expected late tonight. The threat
for any wintry precipitation continues to dwindle and have left it
out of the near term forecast. /EC/

Thursday through next Tuesday:

A general west to west northwest flow aloft will remain over the
region through much of the forecast period. High pressure at the
surface building into the region in the wake of Wednesday's front,
will result in a cold dry airmass over the forecast area as we
begin the long term period on Thursday. A reinforcing shot of cold
dry air will advect into the region on Friday, as strong high
pressure builds in behind another cold front that races southeast
through the CWA late Thursday night into Friday morning. Other
than a slight increase in northwest winds and an increase in
clouds over the area during this time, no precipitation is
currently expected to accompany the passage of this cold front.

High pressure at the surface quickly builds into and through the
region Friday and through the weekend.  Winds will become more west
southwesterly allowing conditions to warm a bit Saturday into
Sunday.  A weakening boundary will drop south into the region on
Sunday, but again looks to currently result in only a slight
increase in cloud cover over the CWA.

Through the course of the day Monday and into Tuesday, conditions
will continue to warm and moisten over the area. By late in the
day Monday and overnight, rain chances will increase as another
cold front is currently advertised to shift east through the
region. Rain will gradually exit the eastern half of the CWA
through Tuesday morning, as high pressure and another cold dry
airmass advects southeastward into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       30  50  30  45 / 100  36   0   4
Meridian      31  51  30  46 / 100  74   1   4
Vicksburg     31  49  31  44 / 100  12   0   5
Hattiesburg   31  53  31  51 / 100  70   1   2
Natchez       31  51  31  47 / 100  14   0   3
Greenville    30  49  28  40 / 100   6   0   7
Greenwood     29  48  27  40 / 100  22   0   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/19/EC

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