Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1142 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A wide range of flight categories driven by ceilings currently
exists across the area. Areas of VFR are ongoing where breaks in
the clouds have occurred, meanwhile MVFR ceilings with areas of
IFR have been stubborn to lift mainly from JAN to GTR and
locations southeast. Ceilings will continue to fluctuate between
VFR and MVFR/IFR through the daytime hours before coming MVFR area
wide overnight. Another round of showers will increase in coverage
late tonight into early tomorrow morning from the south. MVFR
visibilities will be possible with any of this activity. /TW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A baroclinic zone remains elongated across the ArkLaMiss with 1.5"
PWATs and upper 50s dewpoints across southeast Mississippi while
drier and cooler air remains entrenched across the Delta. A few
isolated to scattered showers will remain possible southeast of
the I-59 corridor today, otherwise the rest of the area will get
to enjoy a brief lull in the wet pattern. Adjusted high
temperatures up a degree or two based on latest observations and
an area of clearing noted on visible satellite imagery over
Louisiana into western Mississippi. Otherwise, the rest of the
near term forecast remains on track and no further changes were
needed. /TW/

Prior discussion below:

Today through Tonight:

With the remnants of the frontal boundary stalled out across the
region beneath southwesterly flow aloft, some patches of fog have
developed early this morning. Do not anticipate widespread dense fog
to be an issue for our area this morning though. The Pine Belt will
be most favored for on and off light rain showers into today due to
proximity to the front and a little deeper moisture in place.
Looking at water vapor satellite imagery, the steady stream of
tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean can be seen arcing
across our region. Some moistening can be seen over northern Mexico
with the next disturbance which will be headed our way overnight
tonight. As a closed low pressure system spins over the Four Corners
region of the Desert Southwest, this next wave will bring an
increased chance for rain showers by late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Expect another night of warmer than normal temperatures.
/NF/

Wednesday through Friday: The persistent wet pattern will
continue through the end of the abbreviated first work week of
2019. As the upper jet stream remains anchored from northern
Mexico through the Ohio Valley during the midweek period, a couple
waves of moderate to heavy rain overrunning a surface front
stalled immediately to our southeast will soak the area. The
initial wave is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as a
leading mid level shortwave and right upper jet entrance region
traverse the region. The second wave is expected later Thursday
as an upper low advances eastward toward the Mid South and a
surface low pressure system tracks across the forecast area.

Latest guidance continues to suggest a swath of 3-5" QPF
generally from Central LA into Central MS, with the bulk of this
occurring Wednesday through Thursday night. Given the antecedent
saturated ground conditions across much of this area, flash
flooding is expected to become a possibility. River flooding is
already ongoing on some area waterways, and it could be prolonged
or made worse. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed for some
portion of the area within the next day. In the mean time, the
potential will continue to be highlighted in our HWO and graphical
products.

The eastward advance of the upper low will finally break down the
pesky southwesterly upper level flow regime, resulting in a
decrease in rain chances as it passes the region on Friday. Though
heavier rains will are expected to be gone by Friday, lingering
clouds and lighter rain associated with the upper low will remain
possible into the night.

Saturday through Monday: Mid and upper ridging will build across
the area over the weekend, with a surface ridge expanding from the
Gulf Coast along the East Coast. This should result in a well-
deserved break in the rain this weekend into the beginning of next
week. With the upper jet becoming displaced well north of the
area, temperatures will steadily moderate to above normal. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  47  52  48 /   5  30  79  88
Meridian      62  48  54  49 /  15  25  72  77
Vicksburg     59  44  48  46 /   7  37  87  91
Hattiesburg   65  53  61  53 /  36  26  68  57
Natchez       61  47  51  47 /   3  35  84  87
Greenville    53  40  44  42 /   2  24  91  92
Greenwood     57  42  47  44 /   4  17  87  92

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/DL

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