Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Jackson, MS

012 
WGUS74 KJAN 172320
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

MSC105-159-172330-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190617T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oktibbeha MS-Winston MS-
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN OKTIBBEHA AND NORTHEASTERN
WINSTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3319 8909 3356 8909 3356 8886 3318 8885

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
401 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday: Enhanced 0-3 km flow has been enough to organize a
broken line of storms with localized damaging wind gusts. This
convection will continue to advance north/northeastward through the
remainder of the afternoon, then taper off this evening with the
loss of daytime instability. With the outflow/cold pool from today's
convection making lesser progress into eastern Mississippi this
evening, there is some potential for redevelopment of showers and
storms along the remnant boundary overnight or early Tuesday
morning. Overnight, low stratus development is likely to occur
across much of the area as the low levels remain rather moisture-
rich. Winds may also become light enough for some patchy fog
development.

The mid/upper shortwave will advance eastward through tomorrow, and
the pool of greatest deep layer moisture will become oriented across
East MS and AL. This will focus the higher rain chances in the
eastern portion of the area, though isolated to scattered convection
remains possible farther west. Lesser buoyancy due to development
earlier in the day and relaxing low level shear may lessen the
threat for isolated severe storms. /DL/

Tuesday night through Monday: Tuesday evening the shortwave trough
will be shifting east of Mississippi and along with the loss of
daytime heating, the chance for rain will end from the west.  still
be left with a rather moist airmass with PWATs around and inch and a
half and surface dew points in the lower 70s. This will help
maintain our warmer than normal low temperatures. Wednesday a couple
additional northern stream shortwave troughs will be moving over the
Plains. The northern most shortwave will support a surface low but
both will track well north of our region. Models are a little slower
with the southern shortwave that is expected to move over our CWA
after midnight. There will be isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
convection Wednesday that is not expected to be severe in our area
but, in our northwest Wednesday night isolated severe storms will be
possible as the shortwave moves over our CWA. Damaging winds still
look to be the primary threat but hail to the size of quarters will
also be possible. Thursday the shortwave will be shifting east of
Mississippi while the weak cold front sags into the central
portions of our CWA. Model consensus stalls this weak cold front
near the Interstate 20 corridor. This boundary will prolong rain
chances in our CWA through the day Thursday into Thursday night.
Induced mid level ridging will strengthen over our region Friday
while surface ridging continues to remain across the Florida
peninsula and over the central Gulf. This will allow for warmer
temperatures and lower rain chances. Mid level ridging is expected
to continue strengthening over our region Saturday into Sunday as
upper level troughing takes over the western CONUS and slowly tries
to shift east. Models differ on how low the ridging will dominate
and troughing moves in from the west. Consensus suggests a warming
trend through the weekend with very little chance for rain in the
east while low chances will be hard to leave out in the west. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions exist at most TAF sites this afternoon. However,
scattered SHRA/TSRA are developing across the region and will
spread northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. As
storms move across sites, brief categorical reductions of ceiling
and visibility are possible in +RA and wind gusts up to 50 kt
cannot be ruled out. Activity will generally decrease shortly
after sunset, with VFR conditions returning through much of the
night. Toward daybreak on Tuesday, MVFR stratus development is
expected across much of the area and some patchy areas of fog are
possible as well. VFR conditions will return by mid-morning. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  87  72  91 /  30  49  19  27
Meridian      73  87  73  90 /  60  66  27  34
Vicksburg     72  88  73  92 /  23  38  10  22
Hattiesburg   71  86  72  91 /  48  69  22  39
Natchez       70  87  72  90 /  24  39  10  22
Greenville    71  88  74  92 /  44  28  16  26
Greenwood     73  87  74  90 /  61  43  19  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>046-049>052-055>058-
064>066-072>074-181945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

Isolated severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
are possible this afternoon through early this evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for southeast
Arkansas, portions of northwest Mississippi, and portions of
northeast Louisiana Wednesday night. The primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ047-048-053-054-059>063-181945-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-Hinds-
Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W UNION CHURCH        31.69N 90.86W
06/17/2019                   JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 4 W
            UNION CHURCH. TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 28 AT
            BARNES LN.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SHARON              32.66N 89.91W
06/17/2019                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS OLD HWY 16.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

MSZ036-037-043-044-172100-
Attala MS-Leake MS-Madison MS-Holmes MS-
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LEAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES...SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Newport, or 10 miles south of Durant, moving north at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mcadams around 350 PM CDT.
  Durant around 355 PM CDT.
  Possumneck around 400 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sallis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8970 3287 8997 3318 8990 3312 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 195DEG 22KT 3293 8983

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W TERRY               32.11N 90.37W
06/17/2019                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN AT MIDWAY AND GREEN GABLE
            RD.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

MSZ030-033-172130-
Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Longview, or 10 miles west of Starkville, moving west at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Oktibbeha and southwestern Clay Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8892 3339 8909 3348 8909 3356 8906
      3356 8902 3364 8902 3364 8903 3365 8902
      3359 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 096DEG 5KT 3345 8900

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
407 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

MSZ032-033-038-039-045-046-172130-
Kemper MS-Oktibbeha MS-Neshoba MS-Winston MS-Noxubee MS-Choctaw MS-
407 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW...WESTERN
NOXUBEE...NORTHWESTERN KEMPER...SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON AND
NORTHEASTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 407 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Center Ridge, or near Louisville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Millcreek around 420 PM CDT.
  Betheden around 425 PM CDT.
  Craig Springs around 430 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Noxapater and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8893 3285 8914 3309 8932 3311 8932
      3343 8899 3319 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 218DEG 32KT 3307 8902

JM