Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Jackson, MS

195 
WGUS74 KJAN 301056
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
556 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

MSC049-089-301105-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0112.000000T0000Z-191030T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
556 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HINDS AND MADISON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended for now. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3234 9071 3234 9063 3250 9059 3250 9052
      3258 9045 3258 9040 3261 9035 3261 9034
      3264 9031 3270 9010 3272 8985 3258 8986
      3244 9007 3240 9007 3225 9021 3219 9020
      3211 9072

$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

Widespread IFR ceilings/vsbys will continue through the forecast
period. Considerable SHRA and isolated TSRA lifting north ahead of
a warm front will become more confined to the north with a break
in the rainfall likely during the day before returning to the
entire area along and behind a strong cold front. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest radar readings from around our region, we
increased the PoPs and QPF through 7am. Because instability is
limited across the region we lowered the chances for thunderstorms
through that time as well. As the warm front lifts towards the
north, temperatures will increase overnight. Otherwise, the
previous forecast remains on track. /NF/TDB/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Wednesday...Clouds will continue increasing across the
forecast area this evening and through the overnight hours as
moisture aloft increase under southwesterly and southerly flow.
Late tonight and into Wednesday morning, a warm front currently
situated along the central gulf coast, will steadily lift
northward through the CWA. This will be in response of a deepening
trough sliding southeast from the Four Corners region into the
southern plains states. Behind the warm front, warming conditions
are expected as dew points climb into the 60s areawide through the
morning, with temperatures leading the way as they likewise
increase through the early morning hours.

Increasing chances for showers, and even some isolated
thunderstorms, are expected overnight into Wednesday morning, as an
area of convection lifts north northeast across mainly eastern
portions of the CWA.  Some rainfall could be heavy at times,
especially across Southeast Mississippi as precipitable water values
climb to around 2 inches.  This area of convection should be exiting
the Golden Triangle area by late morning.  Despite this down-trend
in convection during the late morning and first part of the
afternoon, there will be a chance of at least scattered convection
about the forecast area.

After a brief lull, by mid & late afternoon when daytime heating and
instability will be at their best, chances for showers and storms
will yet again increase.  This will particularly be the case across
Southeast Mississippi where an isolated severe storm will be
possible.  This threat will begin to lessen there early into the
evening, when daytime heating and instability begin to wane, but the
chance for an isolated severe storm will increase in the west as a
cold front approaches the CWA from the west.  The primary concern
with any isolated severe storms will be damaging wind gusts.

Confidence in heavy rainfall and flash flooding has really decreased
across the area, as models have become quite progressive with this
system.  Despite a potential 1-2 inches of rain, with locally higher
amounts possible, falling across the CWA, this potential looks to
fall across a 36-48 hour period. Model have also overall scaled back
their rainfall totals with this mid-week system. As a result, we've
removed the "Limited" threat for flash flooding across the CWA from
the HWO, as again confidence in this threat has become low. /19/

Wednesday night through Monday night...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the area Wednesday night out
ahead of a cold front that sweeps across the area into Thursday
morning. Forcing could produce some strong to possibly severe
storms along the line, with strong wind gusts the main concern, so
will have a marginal risk for the cwa for Wednesday night.
Rainfall amounts have trended down, along with confidence for
flash flooding, so will remove mention for flash flooding from the
HWO for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The front will be east of the area by mid to late morning Thursday,
with showers and storms ending from west to east through the day.
Highs on Thursday will only climb into the 50s for most of the area.
Cold high pressure will settle in behind the boundary with lows
falling into the 30s by Friday morning. Temperatures may fall to
around freezing for some areas along and north of I-20, with patchy
frost possible, so have introduced a limited risk in the HWO for
patchy frost late Thursday night into Friday morning. Cool days will
continue Friday and Saturday with highs only climbing into the 50s
for most locations. Strong high pressure ridging will continue to
prevail across the region through Monday, with highs in the 50s to
around 60 on Sunday, warming into the low to mid 60s by Monday. Lows
will fall into the 30s each morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  51  55  34 /  71  82  88  14
Meridian      76  58  63  34 /  90  78  88  23
Vicksburg     78  49  53  35 /  69  87  89  14
Hattiesburg   78  59  65  35 /  92  71  80  18
Natchez       79  49  53  35 /  67  85  87  14
Greenville    71  46  50  33 /  70  93  84  14
Greenwood     73  47  51  33 /  81  88  89  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
232 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
232 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Wednesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts of 60 mph, are possible across the outlook area from late
Wednesday afternoon into late Wednesday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday...

Patchy frost is possible across mainly central and northern
portions of the outlook area early Friday morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

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Meso Analysis...
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Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
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Storm Reports...
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