Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
253 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: Convection has been more abundant this afternoon
owing to greater deep layer moisture and a lingering weak surface
trough. Moderate to strong instability has allowed a few convective
cores to become robust; however, weak shear has limited the ability
of stronger convection to sustain itself. As this activity is
primarily diurnal in nature, coverage should decrease quickly after
sunset. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight through daybreak
Monday, particularly given the greater coverage of rain today and
anticipated calm/light wind overnight. While it could be locally
dense in a few spots, confidence in coverage is too low to warrant
mention in the HWO at this point.

The weak surface trough will shift slightly southward on Monday,
with relatively drier air advect into the northern portion of the
region. This should shift the balance of highest rain chances toward
the Pine Belt, with coverage more isolated around the Delta
tomorrow. Forecast weak shear and lapse rates suggest any severe
threat will be limited. Lesser clouds/precip should result in
slightly higher, but still seasonable, max temps. /DL/

Monday night through Saturday: Mid level flow pattern will undergo a
slow change through the upcoming week as quasi stationary trough
over the eastern US begins to pull away further east with high over
the Intermountain West ridging eastward. For sensible weather this
will translate into lessening rain chances and increasing daytime
temperatures. While weak shortwaves will continue in the weakening
northwesterly flow to aid in diurnal convective activity, the
increased ridging will begin to skirt these waves further around the
forecast area, mostly affecting far northeastern areas. To the
southwest, less convection and warmer temperatures aloft will allow
surface temperatures to climb as well. With nothing to scour away
the low to mid 70s dewpoints, the higher temperatures will result in
heat indices reaching around 105 over areas west of the river
Tuesday and Wednesday and areawide Thursday through Saturday,
especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta region./GG/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across most of the area, but scattered
SHRA/TSRA are developing at midday. This activity will continue
through the afternoon hours, bringing potential for brief
categorical reductions in ceiling/visibility, before tapering off
during the early evening. VFR conditions will prevail through most
of the night, then some patchy fog development is possible around
daybreak Monday morning, with reductions to MVFR visibility
possible. Conditions will then improve to VFR again shortly after
daybreak. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  72  92 /  29  41  15  30
Meridian      71  92  71  92 /  35  50  20  30
Vicksburg     73  92  72  93 /  27  32  11  26
Hattiesburg   72  91  72  92 /  34  60  22  46
Natchez       73  90  72  91 /  27  46  16  38
Greenville    72  91  73  93 /  18  18   7  21
Greenwood     72  89  71  92 /  21  23   8  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
222 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the entire outlook Tuesday through Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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