Storm Watch 1, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1231 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 420 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Quiet weather continues today and tonight, with partly to mostly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Highs will be in the upper 40s
and low 50s. Lows will be in the 30s. Rain is expected Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night. It will
be windy on Wednesday. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected,
with a few gusts up to 55 to 60 mph possible in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 420 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Quiet forecast today with dry conditions expected. A weak cold
front/surface trough will shift in from the northwest and wash out
across the central CWA this evening, but expect only increasing
cloud cover. Highs today will climb into the upper 40s and 50s under
continued WAA. Lows tonight will be in the mid-upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

The main show of the long term will be the system forecast to impact
the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night, thankfully still as
all rain for our area. The greater concern will be the winds
Wednesday, which are still well on track to be at least advisory
criteria (sustained wind 30-39mph and gusts between 45-57 mph for at
least one hour).

High Wind Watch Potential: Given that Wednesday is the day before
Thanksgiving, debated issuing an earlier-than-normal high wind watch
to give folks a heads up. Opted to hold off however, as neighboring
offices were not fully confident in reaching warning criteria-and
nailing down the exact counties to include in headlines would be
tricky this far out. Certainly understandable, as warning criteria
is pretty tough to reach around here (Sustained to 40 mph/gusts >=58
mph for at least 1 hour). Forecast winds are on the border of
advisory/warning right now, with gusts up to 45-50 mph expected for
all counties Wednesday. Would not be surprised to see a few gusts up
to 55-60 mph Wednesday afternoon, especially near Lake Michigan.

Little change from previous forecast, as the surface/upper level low
is expected to lift from the central plains Tuesday into northern
Lake Huron by early Wed Eve. This brings us rain chances Tuesday
afternoon, increasing to more widespread potential Tuesday night/Wed
AM with better isentropic ascent/moisture transport. Did add a
mention for thunder Tue PM/Wed AM as there is an axis of decent
MLCAPE (300-600 J/kg) ahead of the occluding front. Concerning
factors in favor of us reaching high warning criteria include the
abrupt isentropic descent (285K) within the dry slot starting
Wednesday morning (SW to NE), with 850mb winds at around 55-60
knots. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it won't be too
difficult to mix down given the expected favorable mixing profiles.
Highs Tue/Wed will be in the 50s, with temps falling through the day
on Wednesday behind the front.

Marine headlines-wise, a storm watch was issued for the open waters
of Lake Michigan, and a gale watch for the nearshore waters, with
potential for storm force gusts. This may need to be increased,
depending on how the forecast evolves as we get closer. A lakeshore
flood watch has also been issued due to potential for significant
beach erosion and lakeshore flooding.

Thursday will feature quiet weather with an amplifying ridge aloft
and surface high pressure settling in. Winds will diminish Wednesday
night as the low pulls off to the northeast, especially after
midnight. Highs will be in the 40s. Friday we'll see potential for
some rain showers ahead of the next system with weak WAA, however
models disagree as to how far north any precipitation will reach.
Have kept POPS limited to around 20-30 percent-greatest further
southwest Friday afternoon. Highs will linger in the 40s.

The developing surface low over the north-central plains Friday
PM/Saturday will shift into northern WI by Sunday afternoon, then
cross the Great Lakes through Monday. Models have come into slightly
better agreement re: this system than the previous forecasts.
Assuming the track remains the same, this system will bring another
chance for widespread precipitation with strong isentropic
ascent/moisture transport ahead of the warm front Friday night into
Saturday, and then forcing from the main low/occluding front Sunday.
Could see some lake effect behind the front Sunday night into
Monday. Rain/snow mix is expected Friday night into Sunday, with the
mix moreso during overnight hours. Daytime highs Saturday will be in
the 40s and low 50s Saturday/Sunday, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

VFR flight conditions expected through the first half or so of the
period with little more than a lowering high/mid cloud deck as
moisture begins to increase ahead of strong low pressure set to
impact the area. A warm front will develop across the area in
response to this development, with dramatic increase in low level
moisture later tonight into Tuesday. Any rain looks to hold off
till close to the end of the valid period, but MVFR cigs and
vsbys are expected to rapidly setup in the 6 to 12Z Tues time
frame, first at KFWA. Can't rule out IFR conditions at both
locations closer to 18Z, but will keep MVFR (barely at KFWA) as
noted in previous forecast and delayed arrival a few hours at
KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for INZ003.

MI...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...Fisher

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