Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Chances of thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon across
southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana, with thunderstorms
likely across all of the area by this evening into the early
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with a risk of
damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy
rainfall. A cold front will sag across the area on Tuesday,
bringing a potential of more showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. The active weather pattern will
continue for Wednesday and Thursday with more chances of rain and
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Temperatures this afternoon expected to warm up into the upper 70s
to near 80. Cloud cover this afternoon will increase ahead of strong
system to our west. Lingering low clouds/fog from Lake Michigan
stretching southeast through SBN and FWA finally eroding away. This
feature may play a role with stronger storms this evening as it acts
as a differential heating boundary.

Strong low pressure system spinning over IA/MN this afternoon will
be the focus in the short term for severe weather across our area.
Leading warm front will lift northward this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms along it possible. Severe risk with these
storms will be limited but cannot rule out gusty winds and small
hail.

Severe risk increases late this afternoon into the evening as warm
front lifts farther north. All severe hazards in play for tonight
including damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado, and heavy
rain. Behind the front, SFC based instability increasing to 2000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 50-60 knots. Long and curved
hodographs with backed winds at the SFC veering with height along
the boundary may result in storms with rotation. Damaging winds is
likely the biggest risk this evening as 500-700 mb winds increase to
50-60 knots by 00z. As stronger storms develop they will have the
potential to mix down these winds to the surface. Concern for large
hail is low especially given high PWAT values across the area around
1.5 inches.

However, due to high PWAT values, heavy rain and minor flooding is a
concern especially given already saturated ground. Widespread
0.75 to 1 inch rainfall with locally heavier amounts in stronger
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicating potential for even higher
amounts, but held off bumping up QPF further due to some
uncertainty.

Tomorrow, mild weather again with high in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Dry conditions in the morning before showers and thunderstorms
fire up in the afternoon along a residual boundary leftover from
previous nights storms. Kept inherited chance pops as its still
uncertain where the boundary will set up. &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Continued chances for rain in the long term as active pattern
repeats itself again on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and
thunderstorms chances will once again depend on upstream
convection that makes its way towards the Great Lakes. A brief
break in the pattern with a rare dry day Friday and into the day
on Saturday. Another shortwave drops down into the area Sat
afternoon bringing once again rain to the area into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Stubborn low stratus and fog has finally mixed out at the
terminals leaving mainly VFR conditions and southeast winds near
10 knots through the mid afternoon hours. Thunderstorm chances
increase during the late afternoon/early evening hours (22z-04z)
as a warm front lifts north in tandem with a convectively aided
vort tracking east from the Upper Midwest. Some of these storms
could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Chances for rain/storms then diminish later tonight into tomorrow
morning. Some MVFR, possibly IFR, stratus may creep back into
mainly KSBN later tonight near the leftover frontal zone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-032-MIZ077-078-282000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Grant-Berrien-Cass MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 /248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019/

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes
possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed across the area late this
afternoon into this evening.

INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-282000-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-
Adams-Blackford-Jay-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will become this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with large hail, damaging winds,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-282000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into early this
evening. Severe storms are possible with large hail and wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue for Tuesday through
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
421 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ022>024-032-272100-
Wabash-Miami-Cass-Grant-
421 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WABASH...NORTHWESTERN
GRANT...EASTERN CASS AND MIAMI COUNTIES...

At 421 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kokomo, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Peru, Wabash, Grissom Afb, Bunker Hill, La Fontaine, Mexico, Lincoln,
Wells, Galveston, Miami, Converse, Erie, Denver, Amboy, Onward,
Richvalley, Bennetts Switch, Deedsville, Mier and Wawpecong.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana .

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8587 4056 8625 4091 8620 4091 8617
      4094 8617 4076 8564 4075 8564 4052 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 205DEG 31KT 4051 8610

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

CM