Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
242 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

A strong weather system racing south out of Canada will bring heavy
snow to Lower Michigan and northern Indiana tonight and Monday.
Farther south, snowfall amounts will be lower, but a rain and snow
mix may cause cause travel difficulties. Bitterly cold air will
follow from Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures dropping well
below zero with wind chills becoming dangerously cold by Wednesday
and likely approaching -40 at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Forecast hinges on all important sfc cyclone track with a narrowing
seen across gamut of 12Z solutions. Strong ensemble based consensus
tracks sfc low from nrn IL ewd into sw MI before pivoting newd
toward lake Huron as sw disturbance melds with rapidly approaching
PV. Notable outliers include the NAM and extended RAP which turn
quicker and are much drier. Some interesting mesoscale details noted
too, namely back bending sfc trough across the south end of lake
Michigan Mon evening within lagging mid level moisture wrap which
would provoke a vigorous lake enhanced snow plume. Otherwise
indicated consensus track far enough south to spread leading warm
advection wing across nrn zones followed by frontal precip band.
Overlap of these two precip inducing mechanisms along with Mon
evening lake enhancement key to snowfall forecast at this juncture
and warrant an upgrade to a warning in sw MI especially in light of
affect Monday morning/evening commutes.

Swd influence of leading warm advection fits close with prior issued
advisory delineation and left as is. However US30 portion from
Laporte into Kosciusko troubling per myriad of higher tilted
ensemble based qpf solutions yet will punt to midshift to ascertain
if futher 00Z based swd adjustments occur. Nevertheless overall
timing of existing advisory still generally fits for most as dryslot
overspreads areas south of lake enhanced plume. Otherwise diabatic
effects within frontal zone look to hold any mix to rain south of
the highway 24 corridor as noted in colder mos temps. Finally little
if any snow expected far se (Portland to Lima).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Strong post frontal cold advection pattern well underway to start
this period. Backing flow ahead of PV wrapping into wrn WI will
steer remaining lake effect bands north into wrn MI as heart of low
level chill overspreads Tue night. Difficulties remain with srn
extent of lake induced clouds. However some very gusty winds likely
within core of low level jet Tue/Wed aftn especially with weak solar
induced mixing as seen in 10m momentum xfer with 30+ mph gusts
possible which will no doubt yield some substantial blowing/drifting
in higher snowpack areas. Otherwise life threatening cold Tue night
through Wed night with most records expected to be broken.

Thereafter PV lifts rapidly newd into nrn QB by Friday as
substantial height rises/thermal ridging spreading into the wrn
lakes. Robust disturbance follows Thu night/early Fri with another
bout of snow followed by rapid breakdown to wrly flow aloft next
weekend. This will aide in quite a dramatic temp recovery as even
more substantial thermal ridging develops into the lakes with temps
well into the 40s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Lake effect snow showers will come to an end this afternoon at KSBN
soon as winds continue to shift, inversion heights decrease, and
drier air works its way in. Have a tempo in for the next hour or so
for brief reductions to IFR/LIFR. Meanwhile, KFWA will remain VFR.
There will be a short break in precipitation before a clipper system
arrives from the west. Expect strengthening south-southwesterly flow
and low level wind shear with a strong LLJ, along with moderate
snow. Snow will start at KSBN first around 6z, then make its way
eastward into KFWA by 11z. Expect rapid reductions in visibility
thanks to falling and blowing snow, in addition to lowering ceiling
heights. Have both KSBN/KFWA deteriorating to IFR/LIFR conditions.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6
     PM CST/ Monday for INZ003-004.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6
     PM CST/ Monday for INZ005-012-014.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for
     INZ006>009-016.

MI...Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     MIZ077-078.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     MIZ079-080.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ081.

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EST Monday for OHZ001-
     002-004.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper/T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MCD

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
556 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

INZ003>009-012-014-016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-281100-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Marshall-Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
556 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 /456 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Heavy snow is likely Monday followed by bitterly cold temperatures
through the middle of this week. Strong winds combined with subzero
temperatures will cause wind chills of -30 from late Tuesday into
early Thursday. Significant disruptions in travel and commerce are
likely from Monday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ005-015-016-024-025-281100-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-
Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
556 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 /456 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will develop from the northwest and then spread southeast across
the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Snow is likely Monday, along with the chance for a wintry mix.
Bitterly cold temperatures will follow through the middle of this
week. Strong winds combined with subzero temperatures will cause
wind chills of -30 to -40 from late Tuesday into early Thursday.
Significant disruptions in travel and commerce are likely from Monday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-281100-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
556 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected through mid
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Dangerous conditions are ahead this upcoming week for all marine
vessels. Heavy snow is likely Monday followed by strong to possibly
gale force winds from Tuesday into Thursday which will likely cause
heavy freezing spray. In addition, rapid ice accumulation is possible
on Lake Michigan which may make navigation difficult.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1203 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             3 W NILES               41.84N 86.30W
01/27/2019  M5.8 INCH        BERRIEN            MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-BN-4, 2 W NILES.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SW LA PORTE           41.59N 86.73W
01/27/2019  M4.4 INCH        LA PORTE           IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-LP-7, 1 SW LA PORTE.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 WNW ANGOLA            41.65N 85.03W
01/27/2019  M3.5 INCH        STEUBEN            IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-SN-33, 1 WNW ANGOLA.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NNE WAKARUSA          41.57N 85.99W
01/27/2019  M3.1 INCH        ELKHART            IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-EL-8, 2 NNE WAKARUSA.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 S THREE RIVERS        41.93N 85.63W
01/27/2019  M3.0 INCH        ST. JOSEPH         MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TRVM4, THREE RIVERS.

0700 AM     SNOW             MILLERSBURG             41.52N 85.70W
01/27/2019  M2.9 INCH        ELKHART            IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-EL-7, MILLERSBURG.

0940 AM     SNOW             1 N WALLEN              41.18N 85.16W
01/27/2019  M2.8 INCH        ALLEN              IN   PUBLIC

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SSE MONTGOMERY        41.76N 84.79W
01/27/2019  M2.5 INCH        HILLSDALE          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-HL-9, 1 SSE MONTGOMERY.

0800 AM     SNOW             5 S DEACON              40.57N 86.33W
01/27/2019  M2.5 INCH        CASS               IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION YNGI3, YOUNG AMERICA.

1030 AM     SNOW             2 SSE HUNTINGTON        40.86N 85.50W
01/27/2019  M2.3 INCH        HUNTINGTON         IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HNTI3, HUNTINGTON.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 N NEW HAVEN           41.13N 85.03W
01/27/2019  M2.2 INCH        ALLEN              IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-AL-39, 4 N NEW HAVEN.

0600 AM     SNOW             GRABILL                 41.21N 84.97W
01/27/2019  M2.0 INCH        ALLEN              IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-AL-72, GRABILL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NNW KNOX              41.31N 86.63W
01/27/2019  M2.0 INCH        STARKE             IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KNXI3, KNOX WWTP.

&&

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