Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
231 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Periods of rain will occur this afternoon into Tuesday as a slow
moving system drags a frontal boundary across the area. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible, especially late tonight into Tuesday. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s and in
the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Robust sw disturbance through nrn IL will continue newd near term.
Supported large downstream broken band of shra expected to diminish
into this evening while low topped convection develops west within
broken cloud shield where some limited instability was noted.

Otherwise more concerted secondary band of rainfall expected to
develop late tonight along trailing height fall axis of departing
wave and ahead of incoming cold front. This will continue west-east
into Tuesday afternoon before clearing timed with arrival of
vigorous dry slot.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Much drier and seasonably cool air follows within post frontal
airmass into Saturday before moderating as heights aloft flatten
through ern Canada/ern US. Weak cold frontal passage late Fri/early
Sat will be moisture starved but may yet yield a few shra and will
retain low chc pops from blend. Otherwise turning warmer by Sun
through much of next week as ridge aloft builds back through the
TN/OH valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

IFR ceilings are the main flavor of observation at this time,
with some MVFR closer to the surface low (currently over northeast
IL). These MVFR ceilings have the best opportunity to lift into
SBN, while FWA has the greatest chance to remain within IFR
ceilings. With this cycle, notable changes were adding IFR
ceilings to the overnight hours while reducing wind gusts. This is
in line with the latest suite of guidance. Periods of SHRA are
expected, with some breaks, through no totally dry times were
worth including.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy/T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Brown

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

INZ003-MIZ077-271000-
La Porte-Berrien-
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 /155 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is the potential for dangerous swimming conditions along the
southeastern shores of Lake Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ004>009-016>018-024>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-271000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-
Whitley-Allen IN-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ012>015-020-022-023-271000-
Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 /155 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
A few of these could be severe with gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado.

Additional thunderstorms are possible late tonight. No
severe weather is expected with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for a time late this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ043-046-271000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft are possible from Tuesday
evening through Wednesday evening.