Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
320 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Hot and humid conditions will prevail into this evening with a
chance for a shower or storm in some locations. Somewhat cooler
and less humid air arrives for Thursday with another small chance
for a shower from late morning into the mid afternoon period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Unstable, but capped environment in place across the area with
SBCAPE values in the 2500-3500 J/KG range. Cu have popped across
the region but remain shallow given the capping and lingering
subsidence behind this mornings wave. Challenge remain on
coverage/placement/intensity of convection into this evening with
the picture really no clearer. Multiple subtle possible triggers
(lake breeze far NW, remnant weak convergence in far SE, pre-
frontal trough working east through IL. Also possible that nothing
is able to develop until upper wave draws closer and just grazes
the area this evening. All these factors warrant no more than slgt
chc to chc pops until clearer signals appear. Main threat with
anything that forms will be heavy rain and maybe locally gusty
winds with little shear existing at this point to organize
anything. Boundary interactions and arrival of trough this evening
may increase shear locally. Hot and muggy conditions will linger
into this evening with heat indices in some areas flirting with
100 for an hour or 2 and plenty of mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

Pre frontal trough will bring somewhat less humid air to the area,
but still leave plenty of moisture around for the day Thursday as
another disturbance and more pronounced front arrive late morning
into the afternoon. After collaboration, have expanded slgt chc
pops further N and W to account for at least some limited
potential for a shower (rumble of thunder?).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High pressure will settle into the region and provide a mainly dry
period. Temperatures will slowly warm starting Saturday back well
into the 80s with near/above 90 degree temps still likely into
next week along with return to at least some humidity. Can't rule
out a few chances for a shower or storm next week as weak
disturbances ride the edge of the upper level ridge. Will also
need to watch how tropical system in the Gulf evolves and possible
impacts towards middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

KIWX radar indicating morning showers have either dissipated or
exited east of the area and latest VIS satellite showing clearing
skies over both TAF sites along with sct diurnal CU. Best synoptic
scale forcing well to the north as water vapor imagery depicting
upper trough over southern Ontario/northern great lakes with mid
level speed max rounding base and pushing through northern WI this
afternoon. Meanwhile convective complex continues pushing
southeast through MO/E KS into very unstable airmass where
surface based CAPES are over 5000J/Kg. So while our area does
continue to destabilize this afternoon...lack of focus for
organized convection should keep any development scattered over
the area. Arrival of cold front later tonight will have
unfavorable timing for instability but does have better
moisture/mass convergence. Will therefore continue trend from
current TAFs and keep mention confined to VC and monitor
development and amend as needed.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...JAL

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