Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Northern Indiana

748 
WWUS53 KIWX 012055
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
455 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INC039-141-012115-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190601T2115Z/
Elkhart IN-St. Joseph IN-
455 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ELKHART AND EAST CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mishawaka,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Goshen, Dunlap, Simonton Lake,
Gulivoire Park, Granger, Osceola, Jimtown and Woodland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8588 4155 8583 4155 8622 4166 8625
      4176 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 259DEG 31KT 4162 8615 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Showers and storms are possible through the late evening. Some of
these storms may be severe with hail and damaging winds. Cool and
dry conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday but additional
rain is expected thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Continue to focus primarily on severe chances this afternoon and
into the late evening. Our CWA continues to destabilize this
afternoon with surface temps around 80F and relatively cold temps
aloft. Surface dewpoints continue to run a few degrees lower than
guidance but excellent low/midlevel lapse rates still yielding
around 2K J/kg 0-1km MLCAPE per SPC/RAP mesoanalysis. Still waiting
on a trigger though with general AVA/subsidence/capping over IN.
Elevated WAA supporting convection across Michigan but this forcing
remains just north of our CWA. Guidance suggests enough heating late
this afternoon to erode lingering cap (particularly NE) and old
outflow/differential heating boundaries/lake breeze could generate a
few isolated storms during the afternoon/early evening as suggested
by the RAP. If this occurs...there will be a marginal severe risk
for wind and hail due to instability but storms will remain "pulsey"
given complete lack of deep layer shear over our area this afternoon
and little/no forcing for organization.

Much better forcing (and shear) arrives later this evening with
approach of fairly vigorous shortwave currently entering northern IL.
Associated cold front won't cross our area until 01-05Z tonight. Two
areas for concern with this later activity. One...potential for a
few isolated storms to develop ahead of the main front. Similar to
this afternoon...this would tap into better diurnal instability but
lack better forcing/shear. Two...with primary shortwave/cold front.
Diurnal timing is not favorable but healthy midlevel CVA and lapse
rates aloft could maintain stronger updrafts into the late evening.
Hail and damaging winds would be the primary concern. Very wet
antecedent conditions always lead to some flooding concern with
thunderstorms but expect storms will move fairly quickly and remain
more on the scattered side. Bottomline...several lower-end chances
for severe storms through the late evening across much of the CWA.
The risk is certainly there but delineating any particular location
and exact timing is difficult in this scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Sun/Mon/Tue still looking dry and pleasant with brief period of
highly amplified flow leaving our region in cool/dry NNW flow.
Incoming airmass is relatively chilly with 850mb temps around 0C
across MI and only mid-single digits over Indiana. This yields highs
in the mid/upper 60s and lows Mon morning near 40F. Will still
likely be a fair amount of cu on Sunday and even an outside chance
for a shower in our far east with trough axis swinging through the
eastern Lakes but will hold with silent 10 PoP.

Our reprieve will be short-lived though. Westerly flow returns high
theta-e plume to the area Tuesday night with an upper low meandering
into the region by the weekend. This leads to several periods of
rain and cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Atmosphere becoming very unstable but still capped. Area of storms
have moved by to our north where less capping and better forcing
exists. Cannot rule out an isolated tsra through the afternoon
near terminals but chances too low for inclusion. Better chances
arrive this evening ahead of cold front and stronger forcing
aloft. Expect better coverage with scattered tsra at that time and
made only minor adjustments to timing, mainly pushing start time
back a bit. Front passes bringing end to pcpn and northwest winds
for Sunday. Models bringing MVFR cigs into KFWA so added a group
for this overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Lashley

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-021915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 /209 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through late evening. Some of
these storms may be severe with hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Dangerous swimming conditions are possible Sunday along the
southeast shore of Lake Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-021915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
309 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             STURGIS                 41.80N 85.42W
06/01/2019  E0.70 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   PUBLIC

            0.5 INCH TO 0.7 INCH.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ003-004-012030-
La Porte-St. Joseph-
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH AND EAST
CENTRAL LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 405 PM EDT/305 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near New
Carlisle, or 9 miles east of La Porte, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, Lydick, Crumstown and Stillwell.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 8674 4158 8675 4171 8636 4160 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 263DEG 22KT 4161 8653

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
409 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ007-012045-
Steuben-
409 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN STEUBEN COUNTY...

At 408 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Angola, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Angola, Fremont, Lake Gauge, Lake James, Flint and Crooked Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 348 and 355.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 154.

Seek shelter until these storm pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 8484 4163 8519 4170 8519 4175 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 262DEG 21KT 4167 8515

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
420 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ006-007-012045-
Lagrange-Steuben-
420 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN STEUBEN AND EAST
CENTRAL LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 420 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Angola, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Angola, Elmira, Stroh, Salem Center, Indianola, Long Lake, Pleasant
Lake, Golden Lake, Big Turkey Lake and Big Long Lake.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 343 and
350.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 8526 4163 8528 4167 8499 4157 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 262DEG 20KT 4162 8518

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             2 N ORLAND              41.76N 85.17W
06/01/2019  E0.25 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
433 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

INZ004-012100-
St. Joseph-
433 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH COUNTY...

At 432 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North Liberty,
or near Gulivoire Park, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, Georgetown, Granger, Gulivoire Park, Osceola,
North Liberty, Lakeville, Indian Village, Crumstown, Wyatt and
Woodland.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 79 and
86.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 8608 4160 8606 4152 8606 4154 8647
      4166 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 259DEG 31KT 4159 8636

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...40MPH

CR