Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Dry and mild conditions during the early overnight will give way
to showers and thunderstorms from west to east between 3 AM EDT
and 7 AM EDT this morning. Some storms could be strong to severe
overnight into early Thursday morning with hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Drier conditions then return Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. High temperatures this afternoon
will reach into mid 70s to low 80s. Friday into the upcoming
holiday weekend will then feature near normal temperatures and
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Strong bowing segments were upstream over Illinois ahead of a
cold front where wind gust reports were close to 70 mph which
matched the forward speed of the returns in the Springfield area.
Given the radar returns and a very distinguished rear inflow
notch, fast storm movement and the likelihood of cell mergers,
have coordinated with the SPC and added severe mention to the
forecast given a good chance for a watch. There is a good chance
for severe wind gusts, especially west of Highway 31 all of the
way to the Mich line. Organized convection is still expected east
of Highway 31 where wind gusts to or above 50 mph are possible. A
large cell merger had taken place about 240 EDT southwest of IKK
bring an greater likelihood for severe storms into the Laporte
County area. Storms will move through rapidly and should clear the
area by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

For Friday through the middle of next week, the pattern will
remain active north of the upper ridge with periodic chances for
showers and storms. Precipitable water values will be above 1.5
inches and times and bring the potential for heavy rain,
especially if cell train. Highs should be around 80 to 85 most if
not all days through next week Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu May 22 2019

Widespread showers and thunderstorms from north central Illinois
into eastern Missouri will shift east across northern Indiana
during the overnight hours. Upstream storms should gradually
congeal into larger convective complex as it enters northwest
Indiana after 08Z with a threat of strong/severe storms and
associated wind/hail potential. Instability gradient would appear
to favor areas generally along and south of Route 30 for greatest
severe threat overnight. Have not made much timing to previous
timing in TAFs, with 08Z-11Z TSRA mention at KSBN and 09Z-12Z at
KFWA. Did also include a mention of stronger westerly wind gusts
to 35-40 knots in association with stronger storms at KFWA.
Strong winds aloft should allow for steady eastward progression of
possible congealed convective complex, taking bulk of stronger
storms into northwest Ohio after 10Z or 11Z. Will also continue
mention of LLWS overnight with strongest southwesterly low level
jet of 45 to 50 knots at 2000 ft. Remainder of the short term
period should be quiet, with westerly winds and gusts to around 20
knots across northern Indiana during the day Thursday as frontal
boundary sags south of the terminals. Focus for additional shower
and storm activity on Thursday should remain across southern
Indiana/Ohio.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

INZ027-034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-240730-
Adams-Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to possibly severe storms with wind gusts above 50 mph will
move across the area early this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for
much of the Friday night through Tuesday period. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible at times, along with the potential of
isolated strong to severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>026-032-033-240730-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Grant-Blackford-
321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 /221 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for
much of the Friday night through Tuesday period. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible at times, along with the potential of
isolated strong to severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed early this morning.

LMZ043-046-240730-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
321 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong storms will move across the nearshore waters early this
morning with wind gusts greater than 40 knots possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms can be expected through Memorial
Day and may bring gusty winds along with hazards to small craft.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
457 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N NORTH WEBSTER       41.36N 85.70W
05/23/2019  M61 MPH          KOSCIUSKO          IN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION MEASUREMENT.

&&

SLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
502 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW WINONA LAKE       41.23N 85.82W
05/23/2019                   KOSCIUSKO          IN   PUBLIC

            BRANCHES DOWN AND A CHIMNEY BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&

SLL