Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
416 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening along
with the chance for strong to severe storms through early evening.
Strong winds, even outside of showers and storms will persist
through the evening/early tonight, then gradually diminishing by
daybreak. Significantly colder air will funnel into the region
later tonight into Friday, with temperatures becoming steady in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Scattered to numerous rain showers,
mixed at times with snow, are also expected on Friday as a
secondary upper level system tracks through. This is expected to
be followed by an unseasonably cool weekend, with just a low
chance of rain or snow showers on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Intense focus on ongoing severe/tornado/large hail and damaging
wind risk. Presently linear convection from east central Indiana
into eastern Kentucky with exceptional 75-90 mph cell movement to
the north- northeast and extreme effective shear of 75-85 knots
and 0-1 km storm relative helicity axis of 400-600 m2/s2. High
shear/low instability environment with 500-1000 J/Kg still quite
impressive given impressive dynamics/extremely deep mid level
vortex over northeast Iowa to lift through northern Lower Michigan
by 06 UTC Friday. This line poses a risk for damaging winds next
few hours over eastern CWA, approximately along/east of Interstate
69.

Other segment from southern Wisconsin through northeast Illinois
along primary deep stacked low/attendant cold front slicing
north/south through Illinois. Large hail also a significant risk
with strong elevated cores, 70 plus dBZ to 6kft/low freezing
level. Satellite/surface observations indicates convergent flow
with approximately 100 mile wide clear slot ahead of frontal
boundary to aid in low instability maintenance. Still given high
translational speed to limit time within more optimal environment
and should trailing convection fail to develop/evolve upscale only
northwest CWA of concern versus the entire area. Furthermore
northern ligation of higher/lower 60s dewpoints bodes unfavorable
for severe convection. Bottomline is an all or nothing event over
next few hours. Of course given background environmental/high
shear environment/upstream tornadoes in northeast IL will continue
with maintain full proactive weather watch through evening hours.

Other concern is wind advisory. Current expiration at 00 UTC to
cover southerly prefrontal winds. A post frontal lull may be
followed by another uptick in southwest winds as low level lapse
rates steepen 02-06 UTC. Given fast northeast/east movement of
synoptic features, lesser 3 hour mb rise/fall couplet, shallow depth
of momentum transfer will continue to maintain 00 UTC expiry.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Blended approach for long term, especially given primary focus on
present severe risk. Primarily transition to cooler temperatures
with some lake effect response as eastern trof/western ridge
dominates. Thermal moderation towards end of forecast period,
days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

A deep upper low will move into Upper Michigan early tonight, and
then into southern Canada. Ahead of this system, a strong cold
front will sweep east across northern Indiana this afternoon.
Gusty winds are likely as the thunderstorms move across the area.
There is a good chance for stronger winds in the vicinity of the
storms. Otherwise, winds will veer to the west with lower clouds
moving back into the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077>081.

OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...Skipper

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-150730-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 /230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Wind gusts in excess of 45 will be possible this afternoon.

There is also a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though isolated
tornadoes are also possible. The higher probabilities for severe
thunderstorms are between 1 pm and 7 pm across northeast Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             3 SSE PULASKI           41.47N 84.49W
03/14/2019  E0.88 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             3 ESE WEST UNITY        41.58N 84.39W
03/14/2019  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
442 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             FAYETTE                 41.67N 84.33W
03/14/2019  E1.00 INCH       FULTON             OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
452 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             3 WSW EDWARDSBURG       41.78N 86.14W
03/14/2019  E0.75 INCH       CASS               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

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