Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Northern Indiana

436 
WGUS73 KIWX 071025
FFSIWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
625 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

INC151-MIC023-059-OHC171-071445-
/O.CON.KIWX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190707T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Steuben IN-Branch MI-Hillsdale MI-Williams OH-
625 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN STEUBEN...SOUTHEASTERN BRANCH...SOUTHERN HILLSDALE AND
NORTHERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES...

At 620 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain had diminished 
across the warned area. Upwards of three to four inches of rain had 
fallen in some areas from northern Steuben through northern Williams 
counties. Additional showers will persist through 8 am EDT with up 
to one half inch additional accumulation. Flash flooding of low 
lying areas and along small streams will continue into mid morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Angola, Fremont, Pioneer, Holiday City, Columbia, Ray, Waldron,
Camden, Montgomery, Clear Lake, York, Alvordton, East Gilead,
Bridgewater Center, Lake Gauge, Nevada Mills, Nettle Lake, Crooked
Lake, Lake Seneca and Berlien.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8438 4170 8440 4165 8440 4161 8441
      4164 8509 4178 8518 4179 8484 4173 8437

$$

JBALL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
345 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Isolated showers are possible again today though many locations will
remain dry. Dry conditions will then persist through Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 80s and much lower humidity. The next chance
of rain will arrive on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Pattern change is underway this morning but current lack of strong
mid/upper level support for subsidence over the Great Lakes supports
continued lower level cyclonic flow and maintenance of moist
environment locally. Moisture boundary is very apparent on morning
surface obs with dewpoints still in the low 70s for parts of our
area and in the 50s over MI. Subtle inverted trough/convergence zone
is maintaining this moisture bubble and supporting convection in our
NE with impressive rainfall rates despite dwindling instability.
This activity is expected to slowly dissipate later this morning but
latest model theta-e and wind fields indicate true dry air advection
and anticyclonic flow will not fully engulf our area until late this
evening and most guidance (hires and otherwise) is generating some
additional light QPF for most of our CWA this afternoon. Instability
will be much lower today given cooler temps and slightly lower
dewpoints but still supportive of a few showers and wouldn't
entirely rule out a rumble of thunder in our south where residual
moisture is maximized. Have therefore raised PoPs with the highest
values (30-ish) central and south. Also did add a slight chance
thunder mention but not expecting anything impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Dry conditions assured on Monday and likely continuing through Tue
as notable theta-e trough sinks into the CWA and stout longwave
ridge builds over the Great Lakes. 850mb temps remain in the mid
teens...supporting highs near climatological norms (low/mid 80s).
Biggest change will be surface dewpoints crashing into the 50s...a
welcome change following recent mugginess.

Pacific NW upper low will finally eject east into the Great Lakes by
Wed with our next chance of rain. Best dynamics remain north of our
area but decent moisture surge noted immediately ahead of rather
sharp cold front and warrants chance PoPs. Still some timing issues
to resolve but expect best chance late Wed and have tried to add a
bit more temporal detail to concensus initialization. Dry airmass
returns to end the work week with temps near to slightly below
normal but subtropical ridge looks to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Subtle sfc trough and embedded upper disturbance over ne IN will
drift south this morning and continue to spawn showers/embedded
thunder. However at this point it remains to be seen if these will
influence the terminals later this morning. Otherwise enough
boundary layer mixing appears in place to deter expansion of rain
based IFR cigs over far ne IN/sc MI thus VFR indicated although
boundary layer moisture remains quite high and increasing but weak
convergence going later into Sun morning may yield a greater
likelihood of MVFR stratocu along with additional showers.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM CDT this morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1047 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-071030-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1047 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 /947 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-071030-
La Porte-Berrien-
1047 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 /947 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

A beach hazards statement for hazardous swim conditions continues
through Sunday mor.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
ning before winds and waves decrease.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-071030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1047 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Conditions hazardous to small craft will continue through Sunday
morning.