Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Indianapolis, IN

212 
WWUS53 KIND 230729
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
329 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

INC045-157-165-171-230800-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-190523T0800Z/
Fountain IN-Tippecanoe IN-Warren IN-Vermillion IN-
329 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE...WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES...

At 328 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Surrey to near Lochiel to Ridge Farm, moving northeast
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Veedersburg, Williamsport, Attica, Cayuga, West Lebanon,
Perrysville, Newtown, Pine Village, State Line City, Pence, Foster,
Tab, Gessie and Rainsville.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 1 and 16.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8695 4022 8710 3990 8753 4048 8753
      4048 8709 4056 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 238DEG 66KT 4099 8723 4066 8732 3990 8765 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JAS

599 
WWUS53 KIND 230755
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
355 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

INC045-157-165-171-230804-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-190523T0800Z/
Fountain IN-Tippecanoe IN-Warren IN-Vermillion IN-
355 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...
NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE...WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EDT for
west central Indiana.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Indianapolis.

LAT...LON 4056 8695 4022 8710 3990 8753 4048 8753
      4048 8709 4056 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 238DEG 58KT 4121 8676 4088 8686 4012 8719 

$$

JAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
237 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Dry weather is expected tonight as a weak frontal boundary and
upper level disturbance exits the area. Another weak cold front
and upper level weather disturbance will push across Central
Indiana early on Thursday...bringing chances for showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm.

High pressure is then expected to settle across the southeastern
states for Thursday night into the weekend. This will allow a
warmer and more humid flow of gulf air to arrive across the Ohio
valley. Thus slight chances for showers and storms will persist
through the holiday weekend along with above normal temperatures.

More rain chances are expected to persist as the next work week
starts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
over GA and Alabama. A stream of moisture was apparent on
GOES16...streaming across TX...AR toward Indiana and KY. Deep Low
pressure was found across Minnesota. Aloft...water vapor showed
stream of moisture stretching across the desert southwest across
the Plains states...wrapping into the deep low across the
northern plains.

Best forcing and moisture associated with the overnight and
morning rain has exited the area to the east. Water Vapor shows
subsidence arriving from the southwest...with mainly diurnal
clouds in place upstream of Central Indiana.

The GFS and NAM both suggest a moderate short wave pushing across
the area late tonight associated with an elongating frontal
boundary sagging southward out of the northwest. Time heights and
forecast soundings suggest good saturation within the middle and
upper levels...but plenty of dry air within the lower levels.
Enough forcing and moisture will be present to warrant
pops...with best pops in place across the northern parts of the
forecast area. Given the increasing clouds and dew points in the
60s present...will trend lows overnight at or above the forecast
builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Models suggest the best forcing aloft departs the area during the
morning hours as the elongated surface front lingers in the area.
meanwhile forecast soundings by afternoon show convective
temperatures near 80 with CAPE near 3000 j/kg. Pwats appear near
1.42 as dewpoint linger in the low to mid 60s. Thus some diurnal
afternoon showers cannot be ruled out after the morning wave aloft
departs. Will continue to keep at least chance type pops within
the forecast. Will stick close to the blends on temps.

Forecast soundings go dry on Thursday night as heating and
instability is lost. Aloft the models suggest strong upper ridging
building across Indiana...pushing any ridge riding waves well
north to the Great Lakes. Thus will trend toward a dry and warm
forecast thursday night.

Models suggest little change in the overall pattern on Friday and
Friday night. Strong ridging remains suggests aloft over
Indiana...again pushing any forcing dynamics well north of
Indiana to the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings again suggest
attainable convective temperatures but with lesser amounts of
CAPE. Thus will include lower chc pops at mainly northern spots
for diurnal convection. Will trend toward a dry forecast on
Friday night. Again will stick close to the blends on highs.

Similar story remains in play on Saturday as forecast soundings
again suggest a conditionally unstable column with attainable
convective temps and CAPE only near 1200 J/KG. The GFS and NAM
suggest a short wave arriving during Saturday afternoon...which
could be an additional trigger. Thus will stick close to model
pops at this point as specific confidence remains low at this
point. Again with warm and southerly winds in place...will trend
highs at or above the blends.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Appears pattern will become more progressive early next week as
ensembles indicate a large chunk of the persistent western trough
will eject into the western Great Lakes by the middle of next
week. This should allow for the current upper ridge to move to a
position near the East Coast.

Ensembles continue to indicate daily chances for convection as a
frontal boundary lingers over the area. There are still some
indications that the front may shift more to the north by Monday
and Tuesday, as western trough starts to eject towards the area.
This may result in a relative minimum threat for precipitation
around Monday and Tuesday, before the threat increases again by
next Wednesday as the trough, and associated frontal system,
arrive.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 23/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Good confidence in mostly VFR conditions but MVFR and worse are
possible in showers and thunderstorms 07z-15z and again after 20z as
a cold front moves in from the northwest.

Winds will start off south and southwest less than 10 knots but will
increase to around 10 knots with gusts possible after 15z. Low level
wind shear will also be a concern 06z to 15z or so.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
944 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-231000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
944 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

...Slight Risk Severe Weather Overnight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms are possible overnight.

Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes,
heavy rain, lightning.

Timing: After 3 AM.

Discussion: Strong or severe thunderstorms are possible overnight
ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Outlook: Periodic thunderstorms will be possible at times Thursday
through Memorial Day. Some of the storms could be strong.

Discussion: A frontal boundary will set up over the lower Great Lakes
Thursday...then meander across the region through the weekend. This
will provide a focus for periodic threats for strong thunderstorms. A
few severe storms are possible as well Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Afternoon heat indices will reach the lower to middle 90s for areas
south of Interstate 70...especially Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Overnight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

MK/Puma