Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM and LONG TERM Sections have
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

 A frontal system will slowly drift south through the
local area over the next couple of days. In the wake of this front,
high pressure will build into the area by the weekend. Another front
may approach the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Linear MCS, associated with a vorticity center over northern
Illinois, currently moving through the areas. Fairly steep mid
level lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear should allow for
this line to maintain itself for the rest of the afternoon,
accompanied by a damaging wind and large hail threat.
Extrapolation suggests this line will be close to or exiting the
eastern/southeastern zones around 202100Z-202200Z.

Short term models suggest the vorticity center will pass through
northern Indiana later this evening. Appears most of the instability
will be swept off to the south due to the current activity, but short
term models suggest lapse rates may recover later tonight, along
with some enhanced flow at 850mb over the southern zones.

Based on above, will keep high PoPs going into the late afternoon
hours, with PoPs tapering off during the early evening hours. Model
data not really showing much in the way of redevelopment later
tonight, but given the increasing lapse rates and enhanced 850mb
flow, prefer to keep some PoPs going most of the night.

Will trend lows tonight near expected wet bulb temperatures, which
is close to the GFS MOS numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Model data suggest a short wave trough will drift across the
northern Great Lakes in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. An
associated front will drift south through the local area, reaching
the Ohio River by Wednesday night or Thursday, and may drift into
the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Operational and ensemble data are
quite wet over the next few days, as disturbances ripple along the
front. However, successive outflows will probably continue to push
the better instability south with time, so precipitation potential
late in the period may be overdone. Will maintain PoPs into Friday
for now.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance by Thursday and Thursday night may be a little too cool.
Will bump up the guidance some in those periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Ensembles suggest upper ridging will move over the area during the
weekend, followed by an upper trough expected to move into the
northern Midwest and western Great Lakes early next week.

Ensembles indicate the precipitation threat with the next trough may
arrive as early as Sunday, with a better threat by next Monday and
Tuesday. Will trend towards a drier forecast for Friday night
through Saturday, and go with higher PoPs in the Sunday to Tuesday
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 20/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1224 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MVFR to IFR conditions expected during afternoon convection with
VFR conditions expected afterwards. MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities possible again tomorrow morning due to fog and
clouds.

An active period expected with a line of thunderstorms moving in
towards central Indiana at this time. Current thoughts are for
arrival at HUF and LAF around 18Z. BMG and IND will be impacted
likely between 19 and 20Z. Brief wind gusts in excess of 30 kts
possible with best chances for strong winds at HUF and LAF. Quiet
weather is expected afterwards before chances for low ceilings and
fog return tomorrow morning with plenty of low level moisture and
nearly calm winds expected. Confidence is still fairly low on
extent of this with best chances near LAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1010 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211415-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
1010 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening.

Hazards: Damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, isolated tornadoes,
hail.

Timing: Most likely window for severe storms noon to 6 pm.

Discussion: An upper level weather disturbance in combination with a
warm and humid air mass across Central Indiana may produce severe
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will be possible at times through Sunday

Discussion: A series of weak upper level weather disturbances will
interact with lingering surface boundary to bring some chances for
showers and storms to much of central Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND GST     INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W
08/20/2019  M73 MPH          MARION             IN   ASOS

&&

BHH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S ATTICA              40.22N 87.25W
08/20/2019                   FOUNTAIN           IN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON AUTOMOBILE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
259 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S WYNNEDALE           39.81N 86.19W
08/20/2019  M70 MPH          MARION             IN   PUBLIC

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWBERRY                38.93N 87.02W
08/20/2019  E60 MPH          GREENE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
301 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BARGERSVILLE       39.50N 86.20W
08/20/2019  E65 MPH          JOHNSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AW