Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
738 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

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.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 437 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

A remnant boundary may help to develop thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe,
with damaging winds the primary threat. A largely diurnal threat
for storms can be expected the next couple of days, with a more
substantial storm threat Wednesday with the passage of a cold
front. A few storms on Tuesday however could be severe with
damaging winds. Conditions late in the period will be cooler with
high pressure in the area, along with a few slight chances for
storms along the periphery of the upper ridge to the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 437 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Thus far, convection across the area has struggled, as a weak cap
does remain in place. We've got a little while longer for things
to develop and move into the area before we start to lose heat,
and plenty of instability is in place along with marginal but
increasing deep layer shear as a remnant circulation moves toward
the area over the next couple of hours. As is typical for the time
of year, hail is somewhat of an afterthought, especially today
with midlevel lapse rates marginal and freezing levels high.
Marginal severe hail cannot be ruled out though, but damaging
winds amid a healthy DCAPE and low level lapse rate environment
will be the primary threat.

Expect convection to wane steadily after the watch expires and
should be dry late tonight.

Airmass changes only marginally tonight and thicknesses/dewpoints
suggest lows near those of last night...70 plus or minus a couple
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 437 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Storm threats will continue each day through the short term, but
will be largely diurnal, with the highest threats in the
afternoons and evenings, and lower threats late nights into the
mornings. There will be a bit higher threat for storms Wednesday
as the cold front passes.

On Tuesday, day 3 outlook slight risk nudges into the area, and
SPC suggests a climatologically typical high CAPE low-moderate
shear MCS with a damaging wind threat. This looks entirely
reasonable given our position on the periphery of the upper ridge
to our southwest, and this threat will bear monitoring.

Temperatures should remain warm, in the neighborhood of 90 during
the day and 70 overnight through the short term, cooling quite a
bit as the front passes at the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sun/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Models in general agreement that a cold front will crop southeast
across central Indiana Wednesday and Wednesday night. The front will
interact with a warm, moist and unstable airmass and result in the
threat for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Then, the 12z GFS and ECMWF differ in that the Euro brings more QPF
in Thursday and Thursday night whereas the GFS does not. The EURO
seems to be keying in on upper waves around a Great Lakes through
and the western part of the cold front stalling and lifting
northeast as a warm front. The blend incorporates both with small
PoPs, mainly south through Thursday night. With confidence low, will
leave the blend PoPs.

Slightly below normal blend temperatures look reasonable.

The rest of the weekend looks mostly dry with below normal
temperatures as Canadian high pressure builds in. However, would not
completely rule out isolated convection in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

VFR the vast majority of the period. Severe thunderstorms will
impact operations at IND through the first couple of hours of the
period at least, with strong winds, heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and variable visibilities.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Nield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
424 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190830-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
424 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Timing: Mainly after 2 PM.

Hazards: Lightning, Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds.

Discussion: A lingering warm frontal boundary combined with upper
level support may allow additional showers and thunderstorms to
redevelop today and this evening across Central Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms through the
middle of next week for parts of central Indiana. Hot and humid
weather will continue through Wednesday with heat indices peaking in
the mid and upper 90s in the afternoons.

Discussion: A series of weak upper level weather disturbances will
interact with lingering surface boundary to bring some chances for
isolated showers and storms to much of central Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
744 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW HOMECROFT          39.69N 86.16W
08/18/2019  E60 MPH          MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             MOUNT SUMMIT            40.00N 85.39W
08/18/2019  E1.75 INCH       HENRY              IN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SENT LOOKS LIKE MULTIPLE SMALLER
            HAILSTONES FUSED TOGETHER.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
749 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CLERMONT          39.79N 86.34W
08/18/2019                   HENDRICKS          IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL 4 INCH TREE LIMBS SNAPPED.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE AVON              39.79N 86.36W
08/18/2019                   HENDRICKS          IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCH TREE LIMB AND 12 INCH TREE SNAPPED.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW NEW CASTLE        39.90N 85.39W
08/18/2019                   HENRY              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN WITH 18 INCH BASE.

&&

KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MOORESVILLE       39.62N 86.36W
08/18/2019  M65 MPH          MORGAN             IN   PUBLIC

&&

AW