Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Indianapolis, IN

655 
WWUS53 KIND 212201
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
601 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INC011-212211-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-190721T2215Z/
Boone IN-
601 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3990 8628 3967 8632 3986 8662 3992 8652
      3992 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 328DEG 19KT 3983 8647 

$$

INC063-097-212215-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-190721T2215Z/
Hendricks IN-Marion IN-
601 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN HENDRICKS AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 601 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brownsburg, or
17 miles west of Indianapolis, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Avon, Pittsboro,
Clermont, Lizton and Eagle Creek Reservoir.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 124 and 126.
 Interstate 70 near mile marker 69.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 57 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8628 3967 8632 3986 8662 3992 8652
      3992 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 328DEG 19KT 3983 8647 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ryan

313 
WWUS53 KIND 212215
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
615 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INC063-097-212225-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-190721T2215Z/
Hendricks IN-Marion IN-
615 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HENDRICKS AND
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Significant Weather Advisory has been issued until 7 PM for this 
storm.

LAT...LON 3990 8628 3967 8632 3986 8662 3992 8652
      3992 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 305DEG 32KT 3976 8635 

$$

Ryan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
417 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The heat and humidity of the last several days will be forced south
of the region by a cold front tonight and MOnday that will bring
rain and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in late Monday with
a wonderful stretch of weather expected through next weekend with
dry...warm and much less humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

To this point so far this afternoon...convection has remained
isolated over central Indiana with greater coverage near the Chicago
metro area and to the southeast across central/eastern Kentucky
northeast into southern Ohio. Mesoanalysis would suggest a lack of
forcing aloft and a subtle drier layer with precip water values as
low as 1.6 to 1.7 inches aligned SW to NE across the forecast area
may be the culprit in the slower convective development across
central Indiana. One last oppressively hot and humid day as 19Z
temperatures had warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat
indices ranging anywhere from around 100 degrees up over 105.

First order of business before we talk about the storm threats will
be on the tail end of this heat wave. As this is day 4 in a row of
heat indices at advisory levels at a minimum and in some cases
higher than that...will let the Excessive Heat Warning ride through
00Z before expiring. If convection can really blow up in the next
couple of hours and drop the heat indices substantially...will
consider an early cancellation. But at this time...the headline will
run through 00Z.

While the precip water values are slightly lower over the
area...they remain more than sufficient as storms likely expand in
coverage through the rest of the afternoon. LAPS soundings show
ample instability with MLCAPE values near 3000 J/KG. As a cold front
situated over the lower Great Lakes gradually sags south into the
region into this evening...should see convection increase in
coverage. A lack of significant shear and helicity suggests the
storms will pulse in intensity...being driven by available
instability...outflow boundaries and forcing associated with the
cold front. Downdraft CAPE values are in excess of 1000 J/KG...so
cannot rule out brief and localized damaging winds from collapsing
storm cores...otherwise expect storms to largely remain subsevere
into tonight. Moisture pooling along the front with precip water
values near 2 inches...combined with freezing levels at 14-15kft and
slow storm motions supports heavy soaking rains and a localized
flooding threat through tonight.

The front will progress south overnight as weak waves ripple along
it before settling near the Ohio River by daybreak Monday. High pops
remain warranted through the evening...dropping back overnight as
convection diminishes in coverage with the loss of heating and
instability.

Temps...trended towards the warmer MAVMOS which was supported by the
low level thermals. Should see lows from the mid 60s north to the
lower 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Forecast challenges focus on showers and storms shifting south with
the front Monday and with temperatures through the short term as a
much more comfortable airmass settles in.

The upper level flow across the country will become more amplified
through the first half of the week...highlighted by an expanding
trough over the eastern part of the country as the ridge retrogrades
into the Intermountain West. This will push the aforementioned cold
front well south of the region into the Southeast States by early
Wednesday. Broad high pressure over the Central Plains will expand
east...bringing a wonderful stretch of weather for late July.

The cold front will continue its southward push Monday but remain
close enough to support scattered convection across much of the
forecast area through midday Monday. Bulk of the CAMs shift the
convection south of the Ohio River by mid to late afternoon along
the axis of better instability and moisture. Will gradually lower
pops through the afternoon from the north with much of the forecast
area free of precipitation by early evening.

Skies will clear from the north MOnday night as a cooler and much
drier airmass expands south into central Indiana. The remainder of
the short term will be highlighted by mainly clear skies with a
refreshing flow of northerly air advects into the forecast area. May
see some diurnal cu development both Tuesday and Wednesday but the
presence of increased subsidence should limit overall development.
Really nice stretch of weather coming for the region.

Temps...the heat will be the first to go Monday with the humidity to
follow by late day into Monday night. A combination of clouds and
scattered convection will keep most of the area in the 70s Monday.
Slow recovery in highs for Tuesday and Wednesday generally ranging
from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will slide back to a range
from the mid 50s to lower 60s...frankly a gift for late July. With
dewpoints tumbling into the 50s during the period as well...the
airmass will be much more comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The long term period will be characterized by persistent surface
high pressure across the region, leading to a dry long term
forecast and very pleasant dewpoint temperatures, keeping things
reasonably comfortable even as temperatures climb back toward the
mid to upper 80s in spots.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 212100Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Delayed start of VCTS at KIND until 21Z based on latest radar
trends. Still expect convection coverage to increase across the
sites.

Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions expected outside of convection today with some
MVFR ceilings possible late tonight and early tomorrow.

Primary focus for the period will be tracking chances for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Current thoughts are
that storms will begin to initiate near LAF after 19Z and become
more widespread later in the afternoon. Carrying VCTS starting at
20Z with tempo TS groups from 22Z to 01Z when convection is
expected to be most widespread. Confidence is fairly high that all
terminals will see some sort of precipitation with lower
confidence on the timing. Ceilings will generally be around 030
this afternoon and evening with lower ceilings expected late
tonight after convection ends. Winds will generally be out of the
south today at 10-12 kts with occasional gusts before shifting to
the north after 0Z and weakening to 5-7 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ryan
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...White/50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
335 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
335 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Hot and humid conditions will persist this afternoon.
A few strong or isolated severe storms are possible. Damaging
winds will be the main severe threat.

Hazards: Heat index values to around 105. Damaging winds,
lightning, brief heavy rain.

Timing: The heat through this afternoon. Storm related through
tonight. Damaging winds mainly this afternoon and evening.

Discussion: A cold front will interact with the hot, humid and
unstable atmosphere and trigger strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: A few thunderstorms will linger on Monday into Monday
evening. Lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain are possible.

Discussion: A cold front will move south of the area as Canadian
high pressure builds in in its wake. This will result in much
cooler weather and lower humidity next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
349 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ028-029-035-212030-
Fountain IN-Warren IN-Tippecanoe IN-
349 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...WESTERN
TIPPECANOE AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Williamsport, or 14 miles south of Templeton, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Williamsport, Attica, Shadeland, Battle
Ground, Newtown and Purdue University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8686 4024 8678 4019 8730 4039 8736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 256DEG 28KT 4030 8724

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
425 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ029-030-036-037-212115-
Montgomery IN-Clinton IN-Boone IN-Tippecanoe IN-
425 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE...
CLINTON...NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Lafayette, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Frankfort, Rossville, Shadeland, Thorntown, Dayton,
Mulberry, Kirklin, Linden, Colfax, Clarks Hill and Michigantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 8633 4013 8629 4013 8690 4041 8697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 265DEG 26KT 4027 8687

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
444 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ036-037-212130-
Montgomery IN-Boone IN-
444 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOONE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crawfordsville, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Whitestown, Thorntown, Darlington, Advance,
New Ross and Ulen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 8691 4013 8688 4014 8629 3994 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 272DEG 26KT 4008 8682

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
506 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ030-031-037>040-045>047-212145-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Tipton IN-Putnam IN-Hendricks IN-Madison IN-
Boone IN-Hamilton IN-Marion IN-
506 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON...HOWARD...HENDRICKS...NORTHERN MARION...BOONE...HAMILTON...
TIPTON AND NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary along
a line extending from near Grissom Afb to 9 miles southwest of
Kokomo to Lebanon to 13 miles south of Crawfordsville. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this outflow
boundary...which will occur well before any rain or thunderstorms.
The outflow boundary could reach the northwest portions of the
Indianapolis metro area by 530 to 540 pm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Anderson, Kokomo, Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville,
Lawrence, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Lebanon, Zionsville, Speedway,
Danville, Elwood, Alexandria, Tipton, Windfall, Westfield, Avon and
Cicero.

LAT...LON 4036 8585 4037 8558 4030 8558 4003 8577
      3969 8633 3981 8695 3987 8685 3987 8669
      3995 8669 4003 8654 4033 8630 4055 8624
      4056 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 269DEG 33KT 4061 8615 4035 8623 4004 8650 3986
8692

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
513 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

INZ051-052-212200-
Clay IN-Vigo IN-
513 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VIGO AND NORTHWESTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Terre Haute, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Brazil, West Terre Haute, Prairieton, Seelyville,
Staunton, Center Point, Riley, Cory, Saline City, Pimento and Indiana
State University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 8753 3952 8703 3934 8705 3929 8705
      3930 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 267DEG 17KT 3941 8745

Ryan