Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight. Then, a strong
upper trough will push a cold front through the area late Monday and
Monday night. Unsettled weather will result.

After that, high pressure will result in mostly dry weather with
above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms was lifting northeast
across southwestern parts of central Indiana this afternoon. With a
ribbon of 2500-3000 J/KG surface based CAPE along and ahead of the
line, expect the line to maintain and possibly intensify. High
Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests that additional activity in its
wake will move into Ohio 02z-04z. So, high PoPs look good through
then. Only slight chance after 04z.

With the warm front expected to be north of the area tonight and
late day dew points in the lower 70s, good confidence in blend
overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Good confidence in thunderstorms Monday. Then, confidence the area
will dry out Tuesday. Finally, low confidence in more thunderstorms
Wednesday.

Upper Colorado system will take on a negative tilt and lift
northeast across the Great Lakes Monday night. This system will push
a cold front across the area as well Monday night. Blend high PoPs
MOnday afternoon and chance PoPs Monday evening look good. A few of
the storms could be strong or possible severe per the Day2 SPC
Marginal Risk.

After that, high pressure will build in and provide dry weather to
the area at least Monday overnight and Tuesday. Would not rule out
more convection Tuesday night and Wednesday  in cyclonic flow aloft,
but confidence is not good.

Blend near normal temperatures look reasonable with highs in the
lower to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night Through Sunday)...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models
initialization was accepted for most items.

Central Indiana will remain near the edge of an upper ridge to the
west and south and an upper trough to the north and east during the
long term. The ridge will be strong enough to keep the area dry
through Thursday, but the upper trough may dip south enough to bring
a front into the area for the weekend.

Will keep the initialization's slight chance PoPs at times Friday
through Sunday, but with low confidence.

Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period thanks to
the upper ridge to the west.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 231800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 101 PM  EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Variable conditions expected in the first several hours of the TAF
period, then eventually becoming MVFR by Monday morning.

A line of convection will move through the sites this afternoon,
with at MVFR or lower conditions and potential for wind gusts over
30kt.

Lower confidence in convection after the main line, so will use
vicinity wording to cover.

Expect mainly VFR into the night at most areas, although KLAF will
dip into MVFR and potentially IFR for a while. The remainder should
reach MVFR during the daylight morning hours Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
954 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-241400-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
954 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are expected across the area today, and some
of these could be severe. Heavy rain is possible with any storm.
Increasingly warm and humid.

Hazards: Heavy rain causing flooding...damaging winds...hail...and
lightning. Heat indices peaking in the low 90s this afternoon, mainly
south.

Timing: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into tonight. The best chance for severe weather will be
from mid afternoon into the evening. Highest heat indices this
afternoon.

Discussion: A warm front combined with an upper level disturbance by
will trigger thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: Periodic threats for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Monday evening. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday
with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. Any heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding due to saturated ground.
Moderate river flooding is occurring on area rivers.

Discussion: Chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue Monday
as an upper level low tracks into the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Tuesday with warm and mainly
dry weather expected for much of the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible later today and again on Monday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY CITY               39.28N 87.11W
06/23/2019                   CLAY               IN   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND NUMEROUS
            TREE LIMBS SNAPPED WITH POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED IN CLAY CITY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

AW

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