River Flood Warning 256, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1253 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

A frontal zone will begin to approach the area today, perhaps
sparking a few thunderstorms near peak heating, with more
potentially moving in overnight as the front gets closer. Chances
will be highest north nearest the boundary over the next couple
of days, before it is forced back northward by developing low
pressure to the west. This will give a brief break of dry weather
as the weekend starts, before the cold front moves in to bring
additional thunderstorms late in the weekend. Periodic chances can
be expected into next week as an active pattern continues.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Fog continues to lift so removed mention of it from the forecast.
Focus is then on convective complex across Wisconsin into Iowa.
There remains a lot of uncertainty on how much if any of this makes
into central Indiana this afternoon. Good warm advection aloft
should help sustain at least part of it, but how much and where
remains in question.

Started PoPs a bit earlier than previous across the northwest given
current timing of the storms. Left PoPs in chance category across
the north for now this afternoon, but will have to continue to watch
closely.

Clouds from the complex will make it into the area, so continued
with increasing clouds for this afternoon. Nudged down high
temperatures a bit given the thicker clouds moving in, but again
will have to watch closely as to where the thickest clouds will go.

Previous discussion follows...

Expect dry weather much of today, but as peak heating approaches,
there will be a chance for remnant boundaries and the approaching
front to spark some storms that could impact portions of the area.
Additional convection may develop into the overnight that will
have the potential to become organized and may pose a severe
threat, mainly north and northeast, as a 40-45KT westerly low
level jet feeds into any storms that do develop. Day one slight
risk is reasonable.

Consensus temperatures looked a little too cool today given the
length of time we're likely to be dry and upstream numbers which
were well into the 80s in spots. Expect upper 70s to low 80s most
areas today. Overnight tonight, warm advection ahead of the
approaching front and widespread cloud cover should keep temps up,
and adjusted temps accordingly. May not drop out of the mid 60s in
spots tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Will continue to carry low chances near the boundary Friday into
Friday evening, and then cut off pops late Friday night into
Saturday evening as the front is forced back northward by
approaching low pressure from the west. The cold front will begin
to impinge upon the area late Saturday night and will carry low
chances for thunder in the west as a result.

Consensus temperatures required some minor adjustments but were
generally in the ballpark. Should see our first real taste of
summer Friday and Saturday with highs well into the 80s in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Models and ensembles in good agree agreement that two strong
negatively-tilted troughs will pivot north across the western
Great Lakes and bring chances for thunderstorms too the area. The
best chances look to be Sunday and Tuesday night. Blend agrees and
so will not make any changes.

For the rest of the long term, good confidence that ridging will
result in mainly dry weather and near normal to above normal
temperatures per the blend.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Some low level wind shear is possible overnight.

Will continue to monitor TSRA complex across Illinois. The eastern
end is weakening while western end continues. Low confidence in its
evolution into the TAF sites due to less instability locally. For
now will just mention VCSH, but TS definitely still on the table.

Additional SHRA/TSRA will develop tonight with another upper wave.
Greatest coverage will be north of the TAF sites, but enough will be
around to have a VCSH mention at the northern sites.

Isolated convection is possible Friday, but odds are too low to
mention that far out.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield/50
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
149 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-171800-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
149 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible. A few may be severe.

Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, brief heavy
rain and lightning.

Timing: General thunderstorms mainly after 300 PM and then through
the night most areas. Window for severe storms mainly 300 PM to
Midnight.

Discussion: A cold front will approach from the northwest and could .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: There is a chance for thunderstorms over parts of northern
and central Indiana through Friday evening. A few storms could
become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as the
main threats.

Thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday night through Sunday
night and by the middle of next week. Some of the storms could be
strong at times.

Discussion: A front will stall over northern Indiana Friday and
separate strong systems will lift to the western Great Lakes late in
the weekend and the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon into the evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind