Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the
east central and southeast sections of Illinois this evening. The
storms are associated with a weak cold front that is moving
through the region. The front should move southeast of the area by
late tonight. Dry weather will then be the rule through the rest
of the week. Temperatures will average near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Moisture channel imagery shows significant dry air in the mid
levels and the SPC mesoanalysis shows downdraft CAPE values of
1200. Instability values of surface based CAPE of near 4500 over
the southeast sections of CWA, along a weak surface boundary has
fired storms that will move east over the region this evening.
Surface boundary will continue to drift to the southeast and usher
in dry weather overnight. Conditions will remain weather
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Northwest flow aloft will be the main upper level flow pattern for
much of the week. High pressure will be mostly in control through
the week, but will only a couple of week upper systems to trigger
a slight chance of precipitation. Main system will be Thursday and
Thursday night, but only a slight chance. Temperatures will be
mainly normal for August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Frontal zone in surface data remains ill-defined over central IL
this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows areas of MVFR
clouds over region, mainly after the frontal zone drifts through.
Expect the MVFR clouds to be scattered over sections through the
afternoon, dissipating in the evening.

As for convection, SPC mesoanalysis depicts most unstable air over
eastern MO into south central IL, and so kept some VCTS in several
of the TAF sites for a few hours this afternoon. Main convective
develpment to be over south central and southeast areas in most
instablity.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-071100-
Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Monday. These are
currently not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-071100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-
Shelby-Vermilion-
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this
afternoon and move southeast. While there is not a widespread
severe weather threat, a few of the storms may be strong to
briefly severe, producing strong wind gusts. A few storms may
linger across eastern Illinois into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A few thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday, especially
over eastern Illinois, but these are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon into early
evening.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-071100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this
afternoon and move southeast. There is a slight risk that some of
the storms could become severe with damaging winds being the
primary severe weather risk. A few storms may linger across
southeast Illinois this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A few thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday, especially
over eastern Illinois, but these are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon into this
evening.

Auten

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
223 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ILZ071-072-062015-
Clay-Richland-
223 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stephen Forbes Station, or 12 miles northwest of Flora, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flora, Louisville, Clay City, Noble, Xenia, Bible Grove, Iola, Sailor
Springs, Schnell, Ingraham, Oskaloosa, Wendelin, Hord and Olney Noble
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3861 8865 3863 8869 3884 8868 3891 8860
      3890 8838 3889 8836 3885 8836 3885 8830
      3873 8811 3860 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 307DEG 27KT 3876 8868

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             XENIA                   38.64N 88.64W
08/06/2019  M0.88 INCH       CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL UP THE SIZE OF NICKELS REPORTED...ALSO A 50 MPH WIND
            GUST REPORTED.

&&

LAUFENBERG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ILZ073-062100-
Lawrence-
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lawrenceville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Sumner, St. Francisville, Billett, Red Hills State
Park, Mount Carmel Airport, Petrolia and Pinkstaff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3869 8790 3884 8774 3870 8752 3868 8754
      3866 8760 3865 8760 3864 8762 3860 8762
      3859 8761 3859 8764 3857 8765 3857 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 311DEG 20KT 3873 8775

Auten

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
648 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ILZ063-067-068-073-070045-
Jasper-Lawrence-Clark-Crawford-
648 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
CRAWFORD...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 647 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willow Hill, or near Newton, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson, Oblong, Palestine, Hutsonville, Flat Rock, Willow Hill, New
Hebron, Eaton, Annapolis, Hunt City, Merom, Stoy, Yale, Rose Hill,
Crawford County Airport, Sam Parr State Park and Trimble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 8754 3901 8814 3910 8815 3917 8762
      3914 8766 3912 8763 3911 8765 3910 8762
      3909 8762 3906 8757 3900 8758 3899 8756
      3899 8758 3897 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 268DEG 27KT 3905 8806

Shimon