Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Lincoln, IL

345 
WWUS53 KILX 292229
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
529 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILC115-139-173-292245-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190529T2245Z/
Moultrie-Shelby-Macon-
529 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MOULTRIE...NORTH CENTRAL SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MACON COUNTIES...

At 529 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bethany, or 8
miles west of Sullivan, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bethany and Findlay. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 8887 3970 8881 3970 8861 3947 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 287DEG 21KT 3961 8878 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Deubelbeiss

700 
WWUS53 KILX 292244
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
544 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILC115-139-173-292253-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190529T2245Z/
Moultrie-Shelby-Macon-
544 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MOULTRIE...NORTH
CENTRAL SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM
CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3960 8887 3970 8881 3970 8861 3947 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 288DEG 25KT 3958 8866 

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Focus in the near term is on the thunderstorm potential through
the remainder of today and tonight. Regional radar this afternoon
shows extensive convection from northeastern TX into SW MO with
additional scattered activity along the Ohio valley to our south.
Convection is expected to spread northeast through the rest of
today and do anticipate the greatest coverage of storms to stay
within the corridor described above, largely along or south of the
I-70 in Illinois late this evening and overnight. Meanwhile,
farther north, stable conditions have persisted over most of
central Illinois through the day associated with remnant outflow
from earlier convection. Stable waves have been noted on visible
satellite imagery through the day, and 18Z KILX raob indicated
just over 100 J/kg MLCIN. Given the time of day and thickening
cirrus blowoff from upstream convection, does seem that stability
may be a limiting factor for convection this evening. Still,
ascent associated with a low amplitude shortwave ahead of the main
upper low over the mid Missouri Valley and the right entrance
region to the upper jet moving over the area later today may
allow for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
I-70. If this were to occur, ample shear in the environment still
supports at least a conditional severe threat with strong winds
and large hail the primary concerns. If any heavy thunderstorms
were to occur, couldn't rule out isolated flash flooding as well,
especially northwest of the Illinois River valley where 1-hr flash
flood guidance is between 0.75 and 1.0 inches. Confidence in this
occurring based on the aforementioned limiting factors is too low
to go with a flash flood watch at this time, but conditions will
need to be monitored closely this evening.

On Thursday, the main upper low to our west is progged to open and
swing east across the midwest resulting in yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Lapse rates above 700mb don't look
overly impressive Thursday afternoon, so deep convection may
struggle limiting the overall severe threat. The wave does come
over at a favorable diurnal time, so the threat for some
lightning and possibly gusty, albeit sub-severe, winds remain.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday, topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Finally have a day without showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast on Friday in the wake of the upper wave that is progged
to shift east to the upper Ohio Valley Friday while a weak upper
ridge builds across the local area. Temperatures should respond
accordingly with highs back into the 80s across central Illinois
under mostly sunny skies and modest winds.

Break in the precipitation will be short-lived, however, as a
potent shortwave trough digs across the Great Lakes region over
the weekend. Modest 500mb height falls begin to overspread
Illinois on Saturday while the main cold front associated with
this system pushes across the area Saturday evening and overnight.
This front will be accompanied by another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, though the system does appear to remain
progressive.

High pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Midwest late in
the weekend an into the early part of next week. This should
provide yet another break from precipitation after any lingering
showers end early on Sunday and lasting into at least Monday.
Cooler temperatures are expected under the cooler north flow.
Highs are expected to be only in the low to mid 70s Sunday and
Monday. Confidence in the forecast details diminishes later in the
week as model discrepancies grow, but precip chances do return by
either Tuesday or Wednesday as the high settles off the east
coast with southwest flow bringing gulf moisture and warmer
temperatures back into the Midwest in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

A weak frontal boundary has settled near the I-74 corridor with
accompanying MVFR ceilings and a wind shift to the northeast for
areas north of the front. Ceilings are expected to scatter out of
the next hour or two which should result in primarily VFR
conditions the rest of today until thunderstorms arrive this
evening. While and isolated thunderstorm or two is possible mid
afternoon, the best chance will be associated with an area of
storms currently over SW MO that are expected to spread NE into
Illinois late this evening. A broken line of thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeast across the terminals resulting in MVFR
or IFR conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible Thursday afternoon just beyond the current TAF valid
period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050-301200-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible tonight.
Damaging wind is the primary concern, though large hail may also
occur.

Moderate to Major flooding will continue along the Illinois
River and La Moine Rivers

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

Moderate to Major flooding will continue along the Illinois
River and La Moine River, with steady rises through the first
part of the weekend. Moderate flooding is also expected on the
Spoon River the next few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. The most likely
time frame is between 6 pm and 11 pm.

ILZ063-068-071>073-301200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Lawrence-Richland-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds are the primary concern, as well as some large
hail.

Minor flooding continues on the Wabash and Little Wabash Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

While minor flooding on the Little Wabash River is expected to
subside late this week, it should continue on the Wabash River
through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 6 pm and 11 pm.

ILZ042>046-048-051>057-061-062-066-067-301200-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Logan-Macon-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-
Shelby-Vermilion-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening. Damaging winds are
the primary concern, as well as some large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 6 pm and 11 pm.

Barker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ063-068-292115-
Clark-Crawford-
333 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Annapolis, or 12 miles southwest of Marshall, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hutsonville, Annapolis, West Union, York, Darwin, Orange, Merom, West
York and Trimble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8755 3934 8758 3931 8762 3930 8760
      3926 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757 3922 8757
      3914 8766 3912 8763 3911 8765 3910 8762
      3909 8762 3906 8757 3901 8757 3917 8794
      3930 8778 3937 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 287DEG 12KT 3924 8779

Barker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
420 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ062-063-067-068-292145-
Jasper-Clark-Crawford-Cumberland-
420 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...NORTHEASTERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN CLARK AND EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Union, or 12 miles south of Marshall, moving east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hutsonville, Annapolis, West Union, Eaton, York, Darwin, Orange, West
York, Trimble and Bellair.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8762 3930 8760 3926 8761 3925 8759
      3925 8757 3922 8757 3914 8766 3912 8763
      3911 8765 3910 8762 3909 8762 3905 8757
      3907 8800 3926 8801 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 263DEG 11KT 3922 8761

Deubelbeiss

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
446 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW STONINGTON        39.69N 89.22W
05/29/2019                   CHRISTIAN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO IN OPEN FIELD

0435 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE STONINGTON        39.69N 89.16W
05/29/2019                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO IN OPEN FIELD

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
507 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ061-062-066-067-292230-
Jasper-Effingham-Shelby-Cumberland-
507 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...CUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from near Beecher City to Teutopolis moving east at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Effingham, Toledo, Teutopolis, Greenup, Stewardson, Jewett, Shumway,
Montrose, Hidalgo, Woodbury, Moccasin, Sigel, Rose Hill, Mode, Lake
Sara and Gila.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 157 and 175.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 88 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 8875 3926 8879 3936 8814 3910 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 262DEG 23KT 3921 8847

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
511 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ053-054-061-292245-
Macon-Moultrie-Shelby-
511 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MOULTRIE...NORTH
CENTRAL SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moweaqua, or 14 miles south of Decatur, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethany, Findlay and Dalton City.

LAT...LON 3962 8900 3973 8893 3970 8861 3947 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 289DEG 25KT 3964 8890

Deubelbeiss