Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

983 
WWUS53 KILX 240051
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
651 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

ILC175-240101-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190224T0100Z/
Stark-
651 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL STARK COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4123 8972 4112 8986 4115 8991 4115 8987
      4123 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 212DEG 48KT 4132 8977 

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
606 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Surface low pressure system off to the west over eastern Kansas
this afternoon is making rapid progress towards the region. Rain
showers continued through the morning, with some ponding already
reported in several areas with rainfall totals less than an inch,
due to snow melt and frozen ground still in place. Warmer air
moving into the area also bringing moisture resulted in some
patchy fog, with a few reports of visibilities less than a
quarter of a mile. The fog will continue intermittently as the
night progresses, with more showers likely until midnight. At that
point, the dry slot should dominate most of Central IL as the low
passes to the north.

The major concern for the forecast tonight is the winds. The upper
low associated with this storm system is negatively tilted
consistently in model depictions as it cross the Mississippi
River Valley. This negative tilt is indicative of a rapidly
developing surface system with a quick tightening pressure
gradient. From 06-09Z the winds strengthen and gusts develop with
momentum transfer maintaining through the overnight hours with the
strong +50kt llvl jet keeping enough turbulence in the boundary
layer. With the sustained winds in excess of 30 mph at times, will
easily hit wind advisory criteria, much less with the gusts up to
50 mph. However, areas NW of a line from roughly Havana to Paris
may end up seeing gusts in excess of 58mph at times, hitting High
Wind Warning criteria. HRRR actually has the gusts at the surface
at the start of the day maxing out in that area. Between the HRRR,
a couple of previous runs of the models, and the tendency of late
for various models to underestimate the winds in Central IL by a
good 5 to 10 mph, have opted to go ahead and replace the High Wind
Watch with a High Wind Warning. Tomorrow will be very windy, with
winds diminishing, but not gone as evening approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

A quick drop in the temperatures for Sunday night through Monday
night will drop Mondays high temperatures to under the freezing
mark for the northern half of the state. After the storm system
passes, much of the country is dominated by zonal flow. The
pattern shift does result in some variations as to the handling of
several quick shortwaves. The GFS brings through a stronger shot
at precip midweek than the ECMWF that keeps it farther to the
north. Some minor pockets of small pops show up in the forecast
with variations in the blended solution. However, a stronger wave
dives into the west coast of the country late Thursday night and
models agree on dropping it into the Rockies and a quick surface
system moving into the Midwest for the weekend. Too early for
details, but it looks like the trend of weekend systems may
continue for Central IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Widespread fog and dense at times into mid evening over central
IL airports with visibilities ranging from 1/4 to 1 mile (BMI has
vsby of 1/8 mile) and ceilings 200 to 300 ft this evening. The fog
should start lifting during mid/late evening as ESE winds 10-15
kts and gusts to 20 kts early this evening shift SSW and increase
to 14-19 kts and gust 20-30 kts. Carried VCSH through mid evening
across central IL. Strong 997 mb low pressure near KC early this
evening, will strengthen to 989 mb as it tracks toward Madison in
south central WI by 06Z/midnight tonight and sweeps a strong cold
front east over central IL. Surface low deepens to 971 mb by 6 pm
Sunday as it tracks toward the Ontario/Quebec province line. Have
LLWS this evening and early overnight with 2k ft sw winds of 45-50
kts. Winds switch sw behind cold front overnight and WNW by dawn
Sunday and increase to 25-35 kts by sunrise with gusts of 40-50
kts late tonight and Sunday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for
ILZ040-047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073.

High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-053>057.

&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053>057-241200-
Champaign-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-
Marshall-Mason-McLean-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Stark-Tazewell-
Vermilion-Woodford-
306 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening.
Rainfall amounts over one half inch may produce areas of minor
flooding due to frozen and saturated soils.

West winds 30 to 40 mph gusting over 55 mph will develop late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

West winds 30 to 40 mph gusting over 55 mph will continue through
Sunday morning before diminishing slowly Sunday afternoon.

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River downstream of
Peoria through the upcoming week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ040-047>052-061-241200-
Cass-Christian-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-
306 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening.
Rainfall amounts over one half inch may produce areas of minor
flooding due to frozen and saturated soils.

West winds 30 to 35 mph gusting over 45 mph will develop late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

West to northwest winds 30 to 35 mph gusting over 45 mph will
continue through Sunday morning before diminishing slowly Sunday
afternoon.

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River through the
upcoming week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-241200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
306 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening.

West winds 30 to 35 mph gusting over 45 mph will develop late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

West to northwest winds 30 to 35 mph gusting over 45 mph will
continue through Sunday morning before diminishing slowly Sunday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
107 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-232015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville,
and Springfield
107 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Patchy dense fog has developed over portions of central Illinois
this afternoon, affecting the I-55 corridor and likely to spread
into areas northwest. Visibility may vary over short distances
and could fall below one quarter mile at times. Fog is expected to
dissipate this evening.

Be prepared for sudden drops in visibility. Leave plenty of room
between your car and the car in front of you, reduce speed, and
use low beam headlights.

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
443 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AI 40.67N 89.68W
02/23/2019  M1.08 INCH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

            RAIN TOTAL SINCE 6 AM

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-240400-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown,
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville,
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris,
and Shelbyville
554 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Areas of dense fog will continue across central IL north of I-70
through mid evening, due to milder moist air over a cold frozen
ground. Visibilities will be restricted to a quarter mile or less
at times especially along and north of I-72. The fog should start
lifting during mid to late evening, as east to southeast winds
early this evening, shift to the south southwest during mid to
late evening and become more gusty. Use your low beam headlights
and reduce your speed if traveling into mid evening due to the
dense fog.

07