Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Strong to severe thunderstorms will quickly move across central
and southeast Illinois this morning and early afternoon, bringing
the potential for damaging winds. As a cold front comes through
the area on Wednesday, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms, although the severe weather threat will be much
lower. This front will be slow to exit the area, so the rain will
linger into Thursday in many areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Main focus for this forecast will be with the severe weather
potential for later this morning.

2 am radar and satellite imagery showing rapid development of
thunderstorms over the northwest quarter of Iowa, the start of an
MCS which has been suggested for the last few model cycles. This
seemed to be handled best by the 00Z runs of the HRRR and NMM-B
models. Using their timing, the squall line is expected to move
into the Galesburg area toward 8-9 am, reaching I-55 around 10-11
am, and southeast Illinois shortly after midday. Latest SPC Day1
outlook maintained the enhanced risk over most of the CWA except
east of I-57, with the greatest threat of significant wind damage
from about Havana northwest. A general weakening trend is expected
as the storms get further through the middle of the state, as the
cold pool pushes further ahead of the line.

Question after the storms will be how much the air mass recovers
this afternoon. Think it will probably be mid to late afternoon
before any significant clearing takes place. Forecast highs in the
mid 80s may be a bit optimistic, and will need to watch this
closely for the late morning update.

Next MCS expected to slide out of the central Plains late tonight.
Have added some 20-30% PoP's over the southwest CWA for very late
tonight, though a later arrival in our area appears more likely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Strong upper trough associated with the low over western Quebec
will swing southward Wednesday night and Thursday. Tail end of
Wednesday's front is expected to hang up in the general vicinity
Wednesday night and Thursday, with the GFS being the most
progressive of the longer range models. Went with more of a slower
solution with the MCS, with healthy PoP's continuing near and
south of I-72 into Thursday night. However, latest models are
showing more of a southward push occurring by Friday evening.

With high pressure dominating the Great Lakes region this weekend,
the east/northeast flow is expected to keep our region dry. Think
the primary rain chances will hold off until Monday, as a cold
front swings across the northern Plains where the storm track will
be focused. Longer range models would suggest a delay until Monday
night, though this will be monitored for consistency in the next
model run.

Pleasant temperatures are expected behind Wednesday's front, with
highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80 and lows upper
50s/lower 60s into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

High cirrus will overspread the area ahead of a line of severe
wind storms approaching from Iowa. MVFR to IFR vis and ceilings
are likely during the thunderstorms. Winds will likely gust to
40 mph in a large portion of the area, with 50-60 mph winds in
a few areas. Rough timing the arrival looks to be 14z at PIA, 15z
at BMI & SPI, 16z at DEC, and 17z at CMI. VFR conditions will
return once the precip moves out of the area. Winds will switch
to southerly ahead of the storm system. Winds will veer southwest
after system goes through and then become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-211115-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-
De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Fulton-Jasper-Knox-Lawrence-Logan-
Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Richland-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
612 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will accelerate
across central and southeast Illinois this morning through mid
afternoon. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph. Hail to the size of quarters will be possible.
While the threat is low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Storm chances will continue Wednesday and Thursday, especially
south of I-74.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this morning through 3 pm.

Shimon

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
931 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

ILZ030-031-037-038-041-042-047-048-050-051-201530-
Logan-Tazewell-Marshall-Sangamon-Mason-Morgan-Woodford-Menard-McLean-
Cass-
931 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MENARD...TAZEWELL...CASS...
EASTERN PEORIA...NORTHERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN
SCOTT...LOGAN...WOODFORD...NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON...NORTHWESTERN DE
WITT...WESTERN MCLEAN AND MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 931 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Chillicothe to near Pekin to near Easton
to near Meredosia. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Peoria, Bloomington, Pekin, Jacksonville, Lincoln,
Beardstown, Eureka, Mason City, Lacon, Virginia, Normal, East Peoria,
Morton, Washington, Alexander, Creve Coeur, Sherman, Metamora and
Riverton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 155 between mile markers 0 and 31.
 Interstate 39 between mile markers 0 and 36.
 Interstate 474 between mile markers 9 and 14.
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 99 and 186.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 68 and 96.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 93 and 139.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4093 8905 4092 8893 4075 8893 4075 8870
      4052 8881 4028 8906 4028 8915 4018 8916
      3965 8979 3975 9049 3979 9048 3979 9059
      3989 9058 4027 8996 4057 8965 4080 8956
      4095 8945 4098 8954 4104 8952 4104 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 283DEG 47KT 4095 8946 4056 8957 4026 8988 3982
9059

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
937 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSHVILLE               40.12N 90.57W
08/20/2019                   SCHUYLER           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG US-24 FROM RUSHVILLE TO
            RAY

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
952 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GALESBURG               40.95N 90.38W
08/20/2019                   KNOX               IL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS GALESBURG TAKING POWER
            LINES DOWN

&&

LAUFENBERG

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