Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
749 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Thunderstorms moved across central Illinois during the morning
hours. Through the afternoon, mostly cloudy skies were the rule
with only a few widely scattered showers seen over the area.
Temperatures were around 80.

Scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop tonight,
moving southeast over the region through the morning hours. More
scattered storms will be possible on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will
be in the mid 80s

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Monitoring some explosive convection just south of the CWA and
east of St Louis this evening. Some of these storms may spread
into southeast counties of the CWA south of I-70 during the
evening hours. Corridor of mid to upper 70 dew points with
temperatures in the 80s is contributing to an axis of 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE this evening while latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates
that 30-35 kts of deep layer shear is in place across the area.
This should support strong to possible severe storms in the area,
though fairly nebulous forcing over the area should help to keep
coverage isolated to widely scattered. Will have to monitor storms
closely over the next couple hours, then anticipate coverage to
further diminish as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset.
No significant changes in thinking for storms redeveloping to the
west tonight, with storms still expected to move into the area
late tonight into early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Storms moved off to the east in the morning hours as jet max aloft
pulled to the east into southeast MI-northern OH. Airmass has
shown some signs of reloading as MUCAPES in the 2000 range over
central sections. However lack of forcing has kept only few
showers during the day.

Aloft, the main upper level short wave/trof seen in moisture
channel data now into MT to western WY and this will continue its
eastward movement tonight. Ahead of system, diflence aloft progged
to strengthen and coupled with the 850mb moisture transport seen
in SPC meso analysis already feeding northward from KS into NE.
Expect convection to fire in the advection region, and advect to
the east southeast, with the main convection moving into IL late
tonight, but further to the north than today. Problems are that
the short range convective models are different in the positioning
of the storms moving into the area, with strengthen, timing and
movement. These factors complicate the forecast and so tried to go
with a middle of the road, more generic chance of storms at this
time.

For Sunday, expect storms that develop to track over area, mainly
during the morning hours, with some minor afternoon redevelopment
possible, similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Only significant feature is the the frontal boundary that finally
tries to move through on Tuesday into Wednesday, with scattered
storms possible during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Yet another tricky forecast on tap this evening with thunderstorm
chances comprising the main forecast challenge. Unstable
conditions are in place across the region, though tempered
slightly across central Illinois with cloud cover in place. While
cannot completely rule out an isolated pop-up thunderstorm across
central Illinois this evening, it remains a low likelihood to
directly impact the terminals. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur late tonight into Sunday morning as
another thunderstorm complex is progged to form over the plains
and race east overnight. As has been the case the past couple
nights, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the precise
track of this system, and several models now hint that storms may
stay north of the terminals altogether. Given the uncertainty,
will maintain a VCTS mention during the most likely window of
storms for the area. If confidence increases in storms moving
across central Illinois as opposed to northern Illinois, a tempo
or prevailing TSRA will need to be introduced into the forecast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-181100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-
Edgar-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-
Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-
Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
334 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may contain frequent lightning and
locally heavy downpours, as well as potential for large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts. Additional thunderstorms are possible
late tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Periodic scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday through
Wednesday. Strong storms are possible on Sunday, with gusty winds
and hail possible.

Hot and humid conditions will set up over the area Tuesday, when
afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening or tonight.

ILZ066>068-071>073-181100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
334 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms through this
evening. Any storms that do form could be strong with large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday
night. Strong storms are possible on Sunday, with gusty winds and
hail possible.

Hot and humid conditions will set up over the area Tuesday, when
afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening.

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
757 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

ILZ066-071-180145-
Clay-Effingham-
757 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Edgewood to near Stephen Forbes Station.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Flora, Louisville, Dieterich, Edgewood, Bible Grove, Iola, Mason,
Oskaloosa, Elliotstown and Hord.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 145 and 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8870 3882 8870 3897 8865 3906 8837
      3866 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 240DEG 22KT 3892 8858 3876 8869

Deubelbeiss

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