Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

An MCS over the northeast half of IL into western IN
has a line of strong to severe thunderstorms along and ne of a
Kewanee to Peoria to Bloomington to Robinson line, and tracking
SSE with its outflow boundary pushing sw of I-74 with northerly
wind gusts of 40-60 mph. A new severe thunderstorm watch is in
effect until 9 pm cdt for the rest of east central and southeast
CWA. Convection will likely affect areas along and east of highway
51 through sunset along with the risk of severe storms with
damaging winds, locally heavy rains and possible hail. WPC has
slight chance of excessive rainfall into this evening over ne CWA
especially over east central counties of Champaign, Vermilion,
Douglas and Edgar. Precipitable water values range from 1.3 inches
over far west central IL to 1.7-1.9 inches in east central and ne
IL.

Yet another area of convection with a 2nd developing MCS was over
the upper MS river valley into central/western WI, se MN and ne
Iowa and tracking se. This could bring more chances of convection
to areas mainly ne of I-74 later tonight into early Mon morning.
Muggy lows overnight in the lower 70s.

The best convection chances generally shift ne of CWA by late
Monday morning and Mon afternoon though can not rule out an
isolated thunderstorms from mid afternoon Mon into early Mon
evening near the IN border where CAP/CIN is weaker. Another hot
and humid day Mon with highs in the lower 90s. Heat indices to
once again peak from 97 to 105F similar to today with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s. May eventually need a heat advisory due to
duration of heat indices peaking from 100-105F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Generally have dry conditions Monday night though isolated
thunderstorms possible until dusk near the IN border. SPC day2
outlook keeps marginal risk over ne IL, ne of a LaSalle-Peru to
Dwight to Watseka line Mon afternoon and Mon evening. Think GFS
may be overdoing the qpf over portions of CWA Mon and Mon night.
The upper level ridge is weakening some on Tuesday allowing
isolated thunderstorms to develop over CWA especially Tue
afternoon into Tue evening in unstable tropical airmass. Highs
Tue of 89-93F with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100F with pockets of heat indices reaching 100-105 from
Lincoln south.

The 12Z model continue to show a flattening upper level ridge over
the Midwest during mid and late week and into the weekend,
allowing more disturbances to bring periodic chances of showers
and thunderstorms to the area as the unstable tropical airmass
lingers much of this week. Very warm and humid weather continues
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F Wed thru Fri and a bit
cooler for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sat and
low to mid 80s Sunday. Heat indices peak in the mid to upper 90s
from Wed thru Fri, and in southeast IL on Saturday and trending
downward a bit during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

One MCS with its back edge of convection was still affect DEC and
CMI early this morning and should diminish in next hour. A 2nd MCS
with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms was moving se at 45
mph into nw IL near the Quad Cities. CAMs generally show this
convection moving SSE into the IL river valley from 02-05Z and
weakening/breaking up as it moves into a worked over environment
with much lower CAPEs/instability over central IL after passage of
1st MCS now in southeast IL and sw IN. This convection and may
affect PIA and possible BMI too for a few hours later this
evening. Otherwise patchy fog may form over eastern IL from 08-14Z
with possible MVFR vsbys especially at CMI and DEC which received
rainfall today. East to SE winds of 8-15 kts and gusts of 18-24
kts se of the IL river early this evening, expected to diminish
under 10 kts in next few hours. SW to WSW winds 5-10 kts expected
on Monday, while any additional convection should stay northeast
of central IL airports where better forcing and weaker CAP will be.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

ILZ028>031-037-038-043>046-011100-
Champaign-De Witt-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Piatt-Stark-Tazewell-
Vermilion-Woodford-
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening, as an area of storms moves in from the north.
Damaging winds and locally heavy rains are the primary concern.

The heat index is expected to reach around 100 degrees today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Heat and humidity will continue much of the week. Heat index
values will reach 95 to 100 degrees during the afternoons, with
the highest heat index on Monday.

While isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, the better
chances of storms will be from Wednesday through Saturday.

Minor flooding along the Illinois River near Peoria should subside
late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening until 6 pm.

ILZ027-036-040>042-047>052-011100-
Cass-Christian-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-
Schuyler-Scott-
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening, as an area of storms moves in from the north.
Damaging winds and locally heavy rains are the primary concern.

The heat index is expected to reach around 100 degrees today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Heat and humidity will continue much of the week. Heat index
values will reach 95 to 100 degrees during the afternoons, with
the highest heat index on Monday.

While isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, the better
chances of storms will be from Wednesday through Saturday.

Minor flooding along the Illinois River near Peoria should subside
late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening until 7 pm.

ILZ053>057-061>063-011100-
Clark-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Moultrie-Shelby-
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening, as an area of storms moves in from the north.
Damaging winds and locally heavy rains are the primary concern.

The heat index is expected to reach around 100 degrees today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Heat and humidity will continue much of the week. Heat index
values will reach 95 to 100 degrees during the afternoons, with
the highest heat index on Monday.

While isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, the better
chances of storms will be from Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required until 8 pm.

ILZ066>068-071>073-011100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
412 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening, as an area of storms moves in from
the north. Damaging winds and locally heavy rains are the primary
concern.

The heat index is expected to reach around 100 degrees today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Heat and humidity will continue much of the week. Heat index
values will reach 95 to 100 degrees during the afternoons, with
the highest heat index on Monday.

While isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, the better
chances of storms will be from Wednesday through Saturday.

Minor flooding will continue along the Little Wabash River at
Clay City through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required late this afternoon into the
evening. The most likely time frame is from 5 pm to 9 pm.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
746 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     XENIA                   38.64N 88.64W
06/30/2019                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE.

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
750 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW FITHIAN           40.19N 87.90W
06/30/2019                   VERMILION          IL   911 CALL CENTER

            ROUTE 49 HAS WATER NEAR ROADWAY, PASSABLE.

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENRY                   41.11N 89.36W
06/30/2019                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN. ESTIMATED 60+ MPH. FROM SPOTTER.

&&

GOETSCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
824 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND GST     E METAMORA              40.79N 89.36W
06/30/2019  E50 MPH          WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SBAKER