Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Central Illinois remains near a weak frontal boundary draped from
Lake Erie, through northern Illinois, into the northern Plains.
This front is forecast to push north as ridging aloft amplifies
over the Plains over the upcoming day. Thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon along what appears to be an outflow
boundary from earlier convection in the mid Missouri Valley
region, roughly along the Illinois River. Outflows from these
cells should spread outward through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening, promoting additional thunderstorms. Storms should
generally be slow moving, but could be strong with hail and gusty
downburst winds due to strong instability over the region. SPC has
indicated a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from around I-72
southward, with a marginal risk to the north.

Overnight, storms should diminish steadily through the evening
with weak forcing and shear. Lows should reach the upper 60s. As
the ridge continues to amplify Thursday, expect high temperatures
increasing slightly, reaching around 90 degrees with heat index
in the mid 90s. Thunderstorm chances should be minimal, and
confined to areas north of I-74 closer to the frontal zone across
northern IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

As the ridge builds Friday through the weekend, any lifting
mechanisms should track generally north of the central IL forecast
area, for a mainly dry forecast until Tuesday. Temperatures
should maintain above normal values in the lower 90s, with daily
afternoon heat index values generally in the upper 90s. Similarly,
warm lows in the lower 70s can be expected.

Models hint at the potential for a few stronger upper level waves
propagating through the northern U.S. next work week to suppress
the central U.S. ridge, and potentially bring precipitation back
to central IL. Coincident with this feature, temperatures would
cool slightly as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Primarily VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, although
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon though evening. This could result in isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys and strong gusty and variable winds. However, timing
and location of potential thunderstorms remains uncertain and
doesn't warrant more than VCTS mention at this time. Thunderstorms
should clear out by midnight. Winds SW under 12 kts this
afternoon and early evening, diminishing to around 5 kts by 03Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-271100-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening.
Severe weather is not expected: however, a few cells could produce
gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon;
however, severe weather is not expected.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River downstream
from Henry through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ040-041-047-049-050-271100-
Cass-Mason-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. A few of the storms could become severe...with damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River downstream
from Havana through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

ILZ042>046-048-051>057-061-271100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening. A few of the storms could become severe...with damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon;
however, severe weather is not expected.

Minor flooding will continue to subside along the Sangamon River
over the next few days...with all points expected to be below
flood stage by Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-271100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening. A few of the storms could become severe...with damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon;
however, severe weather is not expected.

Minor flooding will subside along the Wabash and Little Wabash
rivers by Friday...but will continue along portions of the
Embarras River into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
457 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

ILZ066-071-262245-
Clay-Effingham-
457 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY AND EFFINGHAM COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
moving into Effingham and Clay Counties Movement was northeast at 10
mph.

Isolated nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Effingham, Flora, Altamont, Teutopolis, Louisville, Clay City,
Watson, Dieterich, Edgewood, Xenia, Bible Grove, Iola, Sailor
Springs, Ingraham, Mason, Oskaloosa, Heartville, Wendelin, Effingham
County Airport and Elliotstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 143 and 159.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 78 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 8869 3891 8870 3891 8881 3906 8881
      3908 8879 3915 8839 3907 8836 3886 8836
      3885 8828 3878 8825 3873 8826 3873 8829
      3866 8827 3863 8830 3860 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 250DEG 10KT 3905 8876 3877 8903

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
525 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

ILZ071>073-262300-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
525 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN
JASPER...RICHLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Clay City to 7 miles northwest of Albion.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Olney, Flora, Clay City, Noble, Parkersburg, Calhoun, Sailor Springs,
Schnell, Wakefield, Wendelin, Berryville and Olney Noble Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8816 3860 8841 3866 8847 3885 8829
      3885 8815 3857 8791 3857 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 224DEG 15KT 3870 8832 3846 8814

37