River Flood Warning 66, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
936 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

A slow moving, compact MCV is lifting northeast out of
northeastern Missouri this morning and is expected to track along
the Illinois River Valley through the afternoon hours. While
isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms is possible
across all of central Illinois, this feature may serve as the
focus for thunderstorm development early this afternoon and have
nudged PoPs up to the high end of scattered range with this in
mind. Similar to yesterday, the weakly sheared but moderately
unstable environment will result in primarily pulse storms with
convection spreading across the area on outflow boundaries.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Another very warm and humid day will unfold across central
Illinois...with scattered thunderstorms once again developing
this afternoon/evening. With synoptic forcing remaining well
north/west of Illinois, any storms that develop will have to focus
along mesoscale outflow boundaries left behind by previous
convection. Several clusters of thunderstorms developed last
evening from the Illinois River Valley S/SE toward southwest
Indiana. Based on satellite imagery/regional obs, it appears the
primary outflow boundary from these storms has pushed into eastern
Missouri/southwest Illinois. As a result, think this will be the
first area to see convective development later this morning. Most
CAMs agree with this and show scattered storms gradually
developing and spreading further eastward across central Illinois
during the course of the afternoon. Have therefore included low
chance PoPs across the far southwest KILX CWA around Jacksonville
by late morning, then have spread 40-50 PoPs across the board this
afternoon...with the northeast around Champaign/Danville not
seeing the activity until late afternoon. Scattered storms will
continue into the evening, with the best areal coverage shifting
east of I-55 by that time. Not all locations will see rain today,
but those that do could experience heavy downpours and localized
flash flooding due to copious amounts of moisture in the
atmosphere. For those planning to attend July 4th fireworks
displays this evening, keep a close eye on the radar, as some of
the festivities may be delayed or canceled due to storms. High
temperatures today will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s, while
lows tonight drop into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Thunderstorms will become more numerous by Friday afternoon as
weak short-wave energy pushes through the region and a cold front
approaches from the northwest. As a result, have boosted PoPs to
likely and lowered high temperatures into the middle to upper 80s.

By Friday night into early Saturday, a short-wave tracking across
southern Canada will push the cold front southward into Illinois.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue along/ahead of this front
through Saturday, but will then shift largely south of the area
by Sunday as the front sags toward the Ohio River. While the GFS
continues to be way overdone with its QPF early next week, the
ECMWF/GEM depict a more logical solution featuring dry weather
Sunday/Monday and perhaps even into Tuesday as the boundary drops
well south and dissipates and upper heights build over the region.
Have therefore toned down the PoPs in the extended, with just low
chance across the southern CWA on Sunday...then mostly dry
weather Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Some patches of fog have formed over eastern Illinois early this
morning, mainly closer to the Indiana border, but KCMI recently
had a brief period of 1/2SM visibility. With the sun already up,
the trend for lower visibilities will be waning through 13Z.
Otherwise, main concern remains with the pop-up nature of showers
and storms into this evening. Can't rule out a stray storm before
18Z toward KPIA, but will focus more on the afternoon and early
evening periods with VCTS mention. With no significant feature to
focus on for development, any mention of a TEMPO period of lower
visibilities in heavy rain will hold off until the actual
development begins.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>