River Flood Warning 63, NWS Lincoln, IL

409 
WGUS83 KILX 251413
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
913 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Petersburg affecting Menard County

  Sangamon River near Chandlerville affecting Cass and Mason Counties

  Sangamon River near Oakford affecting Cass...Mason and Menard 
  Counties

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC129-260412-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190627T0600Z/
/PETI2.1.ER.190624T1535Z.190625T1800Z.190627T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River at Petersburg. 
* Until late Wednesday night.
* At  815 AM Tuesday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Extensive agricultural and lowland flooding 
  occurs.

&&

                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Petersburg        23  23.6 Tue 8 AM    23.3   22.5   21.2

&&

LAT...LON 4012 8988 4012 8978 4001 8979 3990 8972
      3990 8982 4000 8989             

$$

ILC017-125-129-260412-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-190628T0000Z/
/OKFI2.1.ER.190625T1157Z.190626T0600Z.190627T1800Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Oakford. 
* Until Thursday evening.
* At  845 AM Tuesday the stage was 471.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 471.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 471.3 feet by 
  early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 471.0 feet...Flooding begins to agricultural areas not 
  protected by levees.

&&

                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Oakford          471  471.0 Tue 9 AM   471.3  471.1  470.3

&&

LAT...LON 4016 8982 4009 8982 4009 8997 4006 9002
      4013 9007 4016 8999             

$$

ILC017-125-260412-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-190629T1600Z/
/CDLI2.1.ER.190623T0622Z.190626T0600Z.190629T1000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Chandlerville. 
* Until Saturday morning.
* At  900 AM Tuesday the stage was 458.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 456.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 458.3 feet by 
  early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 459.9 feet...Flooding begins to impact some residences 
  in Chandlerville.

&&

                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Chandlerville     457  458.0 Tue 9 AM   458.3  458.1  457.4

&&

LAT...LON 4013 9007 4006 9002 4002 9016 4003 9043
      4010 9036 4010 9017             

$$

DRH

122 
WGUS83 KILX 260105
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Petersburg affecting Menard County
  Sangamon River near Oakford affecting Cass...Mason and Menard 
  Counties
  Sangamon River near Chandlerville affecting Cass and Mason Counties

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC129-261504-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190627T0000Z/
/PETI2.1.ER.190624T1535Z.190625T1600Z.190626T1800Z.NO/
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River at Petersburg. 
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  715 PM Tuesday the stage was 23.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Extensive agricultural and lowland flooding 
  occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Petersburg        23  23.5 Tue 7 PM    23.2   22.0   20.5


&&

LAT...LON 4012 8988 4012 8978 4001 8979 3990 8972
      3990 8982 4000 8989             

$$

ILC017-125-129-261504-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-190627T2100Z/
/OKFI2.1.ER.190625T1157Z.190626T1800Z.190627T1500Z.NO/
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Oakford. 
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At  745 PM Tuesday the stage was 471.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 471.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 471.2 feet by 
  tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 471.0 feet...Flooding begins to agricultural areas not 
  protected by levees.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Oakford           471  471.0 Tue 8 PM   471.1  471.1  470.1


&&

LAT...LON 4016 8982 4009 8982 4009 8997 4006 9002
      4013 9007 4016 8999             

$$

ILC017-125-261504-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-190629T1030Z/
/CDLI2.1.ER.190623T0622Z.190626T1800Z.190629T0430Z.NO/
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Chandlerville. 
* Until late Friday night.
* At  800 PM Tuesday the stage was 458.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 456.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 458.4 feet by 
  tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 459.9 feet...Flooding begins to impact some residences 
  in Chandlerville.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Sangamon River
 Chandlerville     457  458.2 Tue 8 PM   458.3  458.3  457.5


&&

LAT...LON 4013 9007 4006 9002 4002 9016 4003 9043
      4010 9036 4010 9017             

$$

25

387 
WGUS83 KILX 261439
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
939 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River near Oakford affecting Cass...Mason and Menard 
  Counties

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are 
expected to continue falling.

Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.

ILC017-125-129-261509-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-190627T2100Z/
/OKFI2.1.ER.190625T1157Z.190625T2115Z.190626T0815Z.NO/
939 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sangamon River near Oakford.
* At  845 AM Wednesday the stage was 470.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 471.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  315 AM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 470.6 feet by 
  tomorrow morning.

&&

EJL
                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Thu    Fri    Sat

Sangamon River
 Oakford           471  470.9 Wed 9 AM   470.6  469.6  467.7


&&

LAT...LON 4016 8982 4009 8982 4009 8997 4006 9002
      4013 9007 4016 8999             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Latest surface map shows the cold front is near the Illinois/Iowa
border southwest into central Missouri. Earlier cloud deck is well
to our east, and we're more in a diurnal type pattern. Scattered
thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the front, where
CAPE's are 1500-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear remains quite minimal,
though, so any stronger storms are likely to be more of the
pulse-type. Bulk of the rain should be east of the forecast area
by early evening, though with the front near I-57 by 7 pm, some
lower PoP's will be kept in that area until near sunset.

Next focus is on Tuesday afternoon and evening, involving the
shortwave currently moving into western North Dakota. Made some
significant changes to the PoP's late afternoon into the evening,
going with 60% PoP's across the far northwest by evening. Latest
SPC Day2 outlook greatly expanded the slight risk, which is now
over the northwest 2/3 of the CWA. Latest NAM and GFS bring
CAPE's over 3000 J/kg west of the Illinois River by late
afternoon. A number of the high-res models focus more on a line of
storms forming in southern Iowa and dropping through western
Illinois, with a separate segment closer to Lake Michigan. With
shear again nothing to write home about, not expecting a large
outbreak, but potential for stronger wind gusts and hail is there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Longer range continues to show a very warm and humid pattern into
next weekend, as upper level ridging amplifies over the Plains.
850 mb temperatures rise to around 19C by Friday, and rise a
little more through the weekend. High temperatures will gradually
creep upward and will be near 90 by the weekend, with peak heat
index values in the mid 90s.

This sort of a pattern will keep rain chances lower. The main
concern is with a shortwave riding over top of the ridge Thursday
night and Friday. GFS is quite generous with the rain amounts all
the way down to the Ohio Valley, while the European and Canadian
models keep the activity to our north. Think the drier solution is
more reasonable. A stray storm can't be ruled out, but will only
mention silent 20 PoP's across the northern CWA for now. Other
thunderstorm activity across the region will be more in the form
of ridge-riding MCS complexes, with the Great Lakes region more
likely to be the recipients.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A cold front has already progressed past all of the TAF sites, as
evidenced by their gusty west winds at 14G24KT. Drier air will
filter into the area, helping to diminish most of the remaining
clouds. There will be a rapid decrease in winds as sunset
approaches, and decoupling takes place in the boundary layer.
Advancing high pressure will provide VFR conditions for a majority
of the day on Tuesday. However, gusty southwest winds will develop
by mid-day. The late afternoon storms that are expected to roll
out of Iowa into our NW counties could affect PIA very late in
this TAF period. MVFR conditions would be likely at PIA if that
occurs. Better chances of storms will come early Tue evening for
the TAF sites.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-251100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-Scott-
Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through early this
evening.  Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Illinois River
Valley Tuesday afternoon...then will spread eastward toward the
I-57 corridor by early evening. Some of the storms could become
severe. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash
flooding will be the primary risks: however, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River downstream
from Henry through Sunday...while moderate flooding persists from
Havana downstream.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday afternoon and
evening...particularly from 2pm to 10pm.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>055-061-251100-
Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Douglas-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-
Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through early this
evening.  Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Illinois River
Valley Tuesday afternoon...then will spread eastward toward the
I-57 corridor by early evening. Some of the storms could become
severe. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash
flooding will be the primary risks: however, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Minor flooding will continue along the Sangamon River from
Petersburg downstream for the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday evening...particularly
from 5pm to 10pm.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-251100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through early this
evening.  Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night and again
Wednesday afternoon and evening: however, severe weather is not
expected.

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers for the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Barnes