Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

768 
WGUS73 KILX 301944
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

ILC095-302315-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190430T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Knox-
244 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 242 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported flooding in 
drainage ditches, yards, and basements. Up to two inches of rain has 
already fallen. Flash flooding is possible in some locations.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Galesburg, Wataga, Oneida, Altona, Victoria, Rio, East Galesburg,
Henderson, Snake Den Hollow and Galesburg Airport.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch are possible in the warned 
area through the afternoon.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 34 and 47.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8998 4101 8999 4094 9044 4115 9044

$$

SB

817 
WGUS73 KILX 302140
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
440 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

ILC095-302149-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190430T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Knox-
440 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4115 8998 4101 8999 4094 9044 4115 9044

$$

SB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1053 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

15z/10am surface analysis shows a 1013mb low over southeast
Kansas...with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending
eastward into the Ohio River Valley. While very little precip is
currently occurring along the front itself, quite a bit of
convection has developed north of the low along a surface trough
axis stretching into Iowa. This activity will gradually shift
northeastward into the Illinois River Valley toward midday...then
to the I-55 corridor by early to mid-afternoon. Based on radar
timing tools and the latest HRRR, have trimmed PoPs to just slight
chance across nearly the entire KILX CWA for the remainder of the
morning, then have increased PoPs to categorical from west to east
this afternoon. With precipitable water values hovering around
1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be a threat. SPC continues to
highlight a good portion of the CWA north of I-70 for a slight
risk for severe weather as well: however, this threat remains
conditional due to extensive cloud cover potentially limiting
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are a reflection of one of a
series of short waves moving up into the region through the
forecast. A stalled front draped across the Ohio River Valley this
morning will shift north throughout the day as a warm front ahead
of another storm system moving into IL later tonight. The
collision of these two mechanisms sets up a few complicating
factors in the region for the short term. Precip currently mainly
confined to the northwest, saturating the ground and dropping the
FF guidance, resulting potentially in the first watch. Warm front
lifting through the region today providing another focus for
showers and thunderstorms, with limited instability, but rich
precipitable water values. Models are inconsistent with
development of showers in the short/mid range, but the relative
cold pool/outflow boundaries laid down by the current precip may
end up having an influence on the northern progress of the front.
At any rate, Central IL is in the Day One Outlook from SPC...a
marginal/slight moving into central IL from the SW.

The FF watch was another concern with the forecast runs this
morning. The axis of higher QPF has shifted slightly southward.
The rich pwats within the warm sector also lining up with a
disturbance in both the GFS and the ECMWF, later in the NAM,
impacting the southeast with a swath of higher QPF. This same area
is also under a max in the llvl jet from 06z-12z and a little
later in the NAM. A secondary max of QPF is starting to show up in
addition to a shift to the south. Have left the current FFA in
place, but expanded further into Central IL for overnight tonight
and into tomorrow. Flash flood guidance is in the 2-2.5" range for
6 hours, and the rain will likely be over a much longer time
frame...but thunderstorms setting up over areas with already
saturated ground could be an issue. May end up seeing a further
expansion today if that same trend continues, as the NAM comes in
with a similar look at 06z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Again, a rainy pattern through the middle of the work week for
Central IL and much of the Midwest. Southwesterly flow and a
series of short waves bringing showers and thunderstorms
intermittently through the week. The surface boundary will waver
across the region, producing small differences in the models with
regards to the areas that will see the highest qpf, as well as
some timing concerns. Wednesday will see the first low cross the
northern portion of the state...with a front behind it, but not
passing in the traditional sense as the next low is linked back
behind it and expected for Thursday along a similar route. Majority
of the QPF in days 1-3, with the axis shifting south this run,
still in the 2-3" range in total. ECMWF continues to be a little
slower with clearing out on Friday, persisting more rainfall over
the southern tier of the state. Either way, GFS and ECMWF having
issues working out the remainder of the weekend with a pattern
shift as the flow aloft shifts into more of a quasi-zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Showers and storms will remain possible for a couple of hours at
BMI and PIA, while SPI/DEC/CMI will just have VCSH through the
morning. PIA and BMI will also see VCSH late morning as well and
into the afternoon hours. As the warm front lifts north through
the period, SPI/DEC/CMI will see the front first...around the late
afternoon. This is also when have added VCTS for all three sites.
This will continue into the evening hours. PIA and BMI will see
the front late afternoon with VCTS being added for late afternoon
through the night. Cigs will also drop through the day, becoming
MVFR at PIA and BMI later this morning. SPI/DEC/CMI will start as
MVFR and then drop to IFR. PIA and BMI will also drop to IFR today
as well. IFR cigs will continue through rest of TAF period. Winds
will start as easterly and then become southerly once front moves
through the sites.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
evening for ILZ031-037-038-041>045-047>056-061-062-066-067-071.

Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ027>030-036-
040.

&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ILZ027>030-036-040-011100-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Schuyler-Stark-
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois, generally west of the Illinois
River.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and could produced flash flooding. In
addition, some storms this afternoon and evening could be strong,
with hail and strong winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Rises on area creeks and streams is
expected and flash flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

There is a marginal risk that some of the storms could become
strong to severe Wednesday.

Significant rises are expected along the Illinois River. The river
may reach major flood stage at Havana early next week. Flooding is
also likely to develop around Henry and Peoria by Wednesday night,
reaching moderate flood stage early next week. In addition, minor
flooding is likely along the Spoon River by Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon and evening.

ILZ031-037-038-011100-
McLean-Tazewell-Woodford-
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and could produced flash flooding. In
addition, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms south of
I-74, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Rises on area creeks and streams is
expected and flash flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

There is a marginal risk that some of the storms could become
strong to severe Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon and evening,
beginning around 3 pm.

ILZ041>044-047>054-061-011100-
Cass-Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-
Piatt-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and could produced flash flooding. In
addition, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with
large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Rises on area creeks and streams is
expected and flash flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

There is a marginal risk that some of the storms could become
strong to severe Wednesday.

River levels along the Illinois River will significantly rise the
next few days, with moderate flooding likely at Beardstown by
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon and evening, mainly
between 2 pm and 10 pm.

ILZ045-055-056-062-066-067-071-011100-
Champaign-Clay-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Effingham-Jasper-
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois, generally along the I-57
corridor.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and could produced flash flooding. In
addition, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Rises on area creeks and streams is
expected and flash flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

There is a marginal risk that some of the storms could become
strong to severe Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon and evening, mainly
between 4 pm and midnight.

ILZ046-057-063-068-072-073-011100-
Clark-Crawford-Edgar-Lawrence-Richland-Vermilion-
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible and could produced flash flooding. In
addition, some storms this afternoon and evening could be strong
to severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Rises on area creeks and streams is
expected and flash flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

There is a marginal risk that some of the storms could become
strong to severe Wednesday and Thursday.

Renewed rises are expected along the Wabash River, and the river
will remain in flood into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon and evening.

Geelhart

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
815 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW PEORIA            40.77N 89.62W
04/30/2019  E1.20 INCH       PEORIA             IL   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR...RELAYED BY WMBD-TV

0745 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TREMONT                 40.53N 89.49W
04/30/2019  E1.10 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR...RLAYED BY WMBD-TV

&&

EJL