Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Lincoln, IL

088 
WGUS73 KILX 300425
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1125 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILC023-033-300432-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190530T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford-Clark-
1125 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN
CLARK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended, however flooding continues. A flood 
warning remains in effect in this area.

LAT...LON 3919 8762 3917 8762 3915 8765 3914 8766
      3912 8764 3907 8795 3924 8795 3931 8762
      3930 8761 3926 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757
      3922 8757

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
713 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Focus in the near term is on the thunderstorm potential through
the remainder of today and tonight. Regional radar this afternoon
shows extensive convection from northeastern TX into SW MO with
additional scattered activity along the Ohio valley to our south.
Convection is expected to spread northeast through the rest of
today and do anticipate the greatest coverage of storms to stay
within the corridor described above, largely along or south of the
I-70 in Illinois late this evening and overnight. Meanwhile,
farther north, stable conditions have persisted over most of
central Illinois through the day associated with remnant outflow
from earlier convection. Stable waves have been noted on visible
satellite imagery through the day, and 18Z KILX raob indicated
just over 100 J/kg MLCIN. Given the time of day and thickening
cirrus blowoff from upstream convection, does seem that stability
may be a limiting factor for convection this evening. Still,
ascent associated with a low amplitude shortwave ahead of the main
upper low over the mid Missouri Valley and the right entrance
region to the upper jet moving over the area later today may
allow for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
I-70. If this were to occur, ample shear in the environment still
supports at least a conditional severe threat with strong winds
and large hail the primary concerns. If any heavy thunderstorms
were to occur, couldn't rule out isolated flash flooding as well,
especially northwest of the Illinois River valley where 1-hr flash
flood guidance is between 0.75 and 1.0 inches. Confidence in this
occurring based on the aforementioned limiting factors is too low
to go with a flash flood watch at this time, but conditions will
need to be monitored closely this evening.

On Thursday, the main upper low to our west is progged to open and
swing east across the midwest resulting in yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Lapse rates above 700mb don't look
overly impressive Thursday afternoon, so deep convection may
struggle limiting the overall severe threat. The wave does come
over at a favorable diurnal time, so the threat for some
lightning and possibly gusty, albeit sub-severe, winds remain.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday, topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Finally have a day without showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast on Friday in the wake of the upper wave that is progged
to shift east to the upper Ohio Valley Friday while a weak upper
ridge builds across the local area. Temperatures should respond
accordingly with highs back into the 80s across central Illinois
under mostly sunny skies and modest winds.

Break in the precipitation will be short-lived, however, as a
potent shortwave trough digs across the Great Lakes region over
the weekend. Modest 500mb height falls begin to overspread
Illinois on Saturday while the main cold front associated with
this system pushes across the area Saturday evening and overnight.
This front will be accompanied by another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, though the system does appear to remain
progressive.

High pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Midwest late in
the weekend an into the early part of next week. This should
provide yet another break from precipitation after any lingering
showers end early on Sunday and lasting into at least Monday.
Cooler temperatures are expected under the cooler north flow.
Highs are expected to be only in the low to mid 70s Sunday and
Monday. Confidence in the forecast details diminishes later in the
week as model discrepancies grow, but precip chances do return by
either Tuesday or Wednesday as the high settles off the east
coast with southwest flow bringing gulf moisture and warmer
temperatures back into the Midwest in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

A shortwave to eject northeastward across central IL this evening
will spread showers and thunderstorms into the area. Thunderstorm
activity likely into KSPI by 1Z, and the remainder of the central
IL terminals by 2-3Z. Primarily VFR cigs except locally lower in
thunderstorms until widespread MVFR develops gradually overnight
and continues until around 18Z. Winds generally light, although
predominantly ENE, becoming WSW after 12Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047-049-050-301200-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible tonight.
Damaging wind is the primary concern, though large hail may also
occur.

Moderate to Major flooding will continue along the Illinois
River and La Moine Rivers

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

Moderate to Major flooding will continue along the Illinois
River and La Moine River, with steady rises through the first
part of the weekend. Moderate flooding is also expected on the
Spoon River the next few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. The most likely
time frame is between 6 pm and 11 pm.

ILZ063-068-071>073-301200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Lawrence-Richland-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds are the primary concern, as well as some large
hail.

Minor flooding continues on the Wabash and Little Wabash Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

While minor flooding on the Little Wabash River is expected to
subside late this week, it should continue on the Wabash River
through much of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 6 pm and 11 pm.

ILZ042>046-048-051>057-061-062-066-067-301200-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Logan-Macon-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-
Shelby-Vermilion-
326 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening. Damaging winds are
the primary concern, as well as some large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Saturday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Severe weather is currently not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 6 pm and 11 pm.

Barker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S EFFINGHAM           39.11N 88.55W
05/29/2019  M2.42 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   MESONET

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
846 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTHERN VIEW           39.76N 89.65W
05/29/2019                   SANGAMON           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ042>045-051-053>056-300230-
Logan-Douglas-Sangamon-Coles-Macon-Piatt-De Witt-Moultrie-Champaign-
856 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLES...SOUTHEASTERN
LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON...NORTHERN MOULTRIE...PIATT...
SOUTHWESTERN DE WITT...SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN...DOUGLAS AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Warrensburg to near Cooks Mill. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Clinton, Monticello, Tuscola, Mount Zion, Forsyth, Arcola,
Villa Grove, Arthur, Maroa, Bement, Cerro Gordo, Harristown, Long
Creek, Atwood, Warrensburg, Lovington, Argenta, Oreana and Niantic.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 196 and 220.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 132 and 165.

LAT...LON 4022 8899 3980 8803 3953 8837 3989 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 220DEG 35KT 3990 8910 3962 8840

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ILZ042-300230-
Logan-
900 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lincoln, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Atlanta, Hartsburg, Lawndale and Broadwell.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 155 between mile markers 0 and 5.
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 118 and 141.

LAT...LON 4028 8926 4028 8915 4020 8915 4000 8932
      4009 8953 4032 8942 4032 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 206DEG 22KT 4012 8938

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
923 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCHESTER               39.75N 89.54W
05/29/2019                   SANGAMON           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE LIMB DOWN ON A POWER LINE. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
926 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S ALTAMONT            39.04N 88.75W
05/29/2019  E5.50 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAND-TV

&&

25