Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

527 
WGUS73 KILX 101216
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
716 AM CDT WED APR 10 2019

ILC095-123-143-175-101224-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190410T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marshall-Stark-Knox-Peoria-
716 AM CDT WED APR 10 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL...STARK...
NORTHERN KNOX AND NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has moved off to the east of the warned area and has 
weakened. Please continue to heed any road closures.

LAT...LON 4097 8945 4079 8957 4074 8955 4101 9044
      4115 9044 4115 8987 4123 8985

$$

Goetsch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
351 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Well, we have made it a 3 for 3 morning, as another weak cold
front slid into the region overnight. Currently it is situated
west to east in south central Illinois. This has brought about a
slight shift in winds, as they are now arriving from the
northeast. Winds remain steady early this morning in the 7-13kt
range. Some light precipitation progresses throughout central
Illinois before midnight, but now a band of showers and
thunderstorms has persisted along I-74. This is bringing moderate
rainfall to locations along the I-74 corridor from Davenport to
Champaign. This area of rain will continue to slowly shift
northeast through the morning, exiting the northeast CWA boundary
around 15z.

Winds will continue to shift from the north and northeast today,
to the east. Winds will begin to increase today, and are expected
to remain elevated through much of the remainder of this work
week. Wind speeds today will climb to around 22kts in GBG this
afternoon, while LWV remains in the low teens. Gusts are expected
to top out near 30kts in GBG, while around 15kts in LWV. Models
indicate that winds will remain gusty overnight as the Low
pressure core in the Plains deepens, tightening the pressure
gradients. Limited moisture across the southern US will not aid
the system in bringing moisture from the Gulf, and with drier air
ingested into the Low, this will allow for winds to remain strong.

After another cool start to Wednesday, and the increase in winds,
temperatures will be cooler. Locations north of the frontal
boundary, north of I-72, highs will only be in the 50s and low
60. Locations south of this boundary area will climb back to the
upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Biggest things are that no collaboration was made this morning on
a Wind Advisory for Thursday, day shift might issue product as it
will be in period 2. Another program that might need re-started
this weekend is the frost/freeze, as growing season has begun
around the region, and lows are forecast to reach the low to mid
30s.

The large-scale Low pressure system currently in the western
Plains will begin to slowly shift through the Plains today, as it
deepens and strengthens. This system is expected to fall near
980mb at the lowest pressure reading. It will then begin a filling
process as it progress into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. As
it arrives closer to central Illinois, Low pressure circulation
will shift the winds from the south. As it fills, pressure
gradients will begin another tightening period Thursday. This is
expected to bring sustained winds in excess of 25-28kts, with
gusts upwards of 40-42kts to the Midwest during the afternoon. The
Low is expected to stall out along the NE-MO-IA borders Thursday
evening. The main effect this will have is that the associated
cold front will be able to swing rapidly into the region. Strong
southerly winds, along with a strong cold front will collide and
bring the region strong and severe thunderstorms. SPC upgraded the
Marginal Risk area overnight to include the entire CWA, while the
Slight Risk area was kept the same from roughly a Shelbyville to
Bloomington line and points eastward for Thursday afternoon and
evening. A line of storms is expected to develop in western
Illinois and race through the state during the afternoon and
evening, with the main threats being Damaging Winds...although
hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

As the Low finally shifts northeast into the upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes, drier weather will return to end the week.
However, the roller coaster ride of temperatures is not done, as
colder Canadian air will immediately filter into the region
Thursday night. This will drop temperatures into the 50s and low
60s for highs, while Lows will fall into the 30s and 40s.

Another system will arrive during the second half of this weekend,
bringing more rain to an already over-saturated landmass. This
system unlike Thursday's, will originate in Texas, ingesting
plenty of Gulf water to dump throughout its path. This storm will
track northeast through the Ohio River Valley, bringing upwards
of an additional 1.0-1.5 inches of rainfall to southern Illinois.

Behind Sunday's weather maker, warmer air will start to filter
back into the Midwest. Climbing back to the upper 60s and low 70s
next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

Rain is finally start to make its way down to the surface, and
there is even a cluster of thunderstorms west of KMQB as of 04Z.
Have updated KSPI for a VCTS mention for a few hours. However, the
main band of rain will be filling in near KPIA/KBMI after 06Z, and
should move north of the area toward 12Z.

North/northeast winds will quickly become east overnight and
increase. By midday Wednesday, most areas should be gusting 20-25
knots, which will last into the evening. Toward the end of the
period, a strong low level jet will set up, and will include a
LLWS mention at all sites after 03Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

ILZ027>029-036-040-041-047>050-101100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River from Havana
downstream through at least early next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A powerful storm system will bring strong winds to the region
Wednesday afternoon through Friday. A few strong thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday afternoon...with the main threat from
the storms being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ030-031-037-038-042-043-051>053-101100-
Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-Marshall-McLean-Sangamon-Tazewell-
Woodford-
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River from Havana
downstream through at least early next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A powerful storm system will bring strong winds to the region
Wednesday afternoon through Friday. A few strong thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday afternoon...with the main threat from
the storms being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061-101100-
Champaign-Coles-Douglas-Edgar-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A powerful storm system will bring strong winds to the region
Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening...with the main threat from the
storms being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-101100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Minor flooding will subside along the Wabash River downstream
from Terre Haute by late Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A powerful storm system will bring strong winds to the region
Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening...with the main threat from the
storms being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

HJS