Wind Advisory 8, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH

051 
WWUS71 KILN 141402
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ044>046-051>056-061>065-070>074-
077>082-088-142300-
/O.CON.KILN.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190415T0100Z/
Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Logan-Union OH-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
Including the cities of Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, 
Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, 
Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, 
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, 
Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, 
Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...This morning into this evening.

* IMPACTS...Scattered tree and power line damage is possible 
  along with some minor property damage in the highest gusts. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Secure loose outdoor objects. Drivers of high-profile vehicles or
trailers should exercise caution. The wind and wind gusts will
make difficult driving conditions.

&&

$$

546 
WWUS71 KILN 142112
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
512 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019


INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ044-051-061-070-071-077-142215-
/O.CAN.KILN.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190415T0100Z/
Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Logan-Miami-Montgomery-Butler-Warren-
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, 
Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, 
Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, 
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, 
Bellefontaine, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Dayton, Kettering, 
Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, 
Springboro, and Cincinnati
512 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Although winds will remain gusty between 25 and 35 mph tonight,
these values will be below Wind Advisory thresholds. Therefore,
the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-062>065-072>074-078>082-088-150100-
/O.CON.KILN.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190415T0100Z/
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, 
Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Marysville, Delaware, Urbana, 
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, 
Newark, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, 
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Wilmington, Blanchester, 
Chillicothe, Logan, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
512 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...This this evening.

* IMPACTS...Scattered tree and power line damage is possible 
  along with some minor property damage in the highest gusts. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Secure loose outdoor objects. Drivers of high-profile vehicles or
trailers should exercise caution. The wind and wind gusts will
make difficult driving conditions.

&&

$$

176 
WWUS71 KILN 142156
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
556 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-062>065-072>074-078>082-088-142300-
/O.CAN.KILN.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190415T0100Z/
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, 
Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Marysville, Delaware, Urbana, 
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, 
Newark, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, 
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Wilmington, Blanchester, 
Chillicothe, Logan, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
556 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Although winds will remain gusty between 25 and 35 mph tonight,
these values will be below Wind Advisory thresholds. Therefore,
the Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
224 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move from the lower Mississippi River
Valley to northwest Ohio tonight into Sunday. As this occurs, a
warm front will lift north into the region followed by a cold
front late in the day Sunday. The low will continue to track
northeast toward New England Sunday night while the trailing
cold front moves through the remainder of the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur tonight into Sunday, with the potential
for severe storms Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening.
Drier and cooler conditions will return to the area on Monday as
high pressure slowly builds back into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Latest radar loop is showing area of showers lifting up through
central KY and srn IN. This is a little quicker and farther east
than earlier models runs were showing. Adjusted the PoPs to
brings these showers up through the Cincy Tri-State over the
next few hours. Later tonight additional showers with embedded
thunderstorms will work into the region. Still expecting some
moderate heavy rain.

Adjusted lows, especially in the northwest tonight. Lows will be
mid 40s in the northwest and the mid to upper 50s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Models are coming into better agreement for severe weather
potential on Sunday.

Strong low pressure will move northeast from the lower Ohio
Valley to northwest Ohio by late Sunday afternoon. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing during the
morning hours as a strong, moist LLJ pivots east. As this
occurs, a warm front will being to lift north into the region,
and then move as far northwest as our far northwest CWFA where
the low will eventually track toward. The airmass is expected to
destabilize fairly quickly in the warm sector behind the initial
large band of showers and embedded thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon. This is indicated nicely on the 12Z NAM model
sounding forecast at 20Z for KILN. Deep layer shear will be in
place, 70-90 knots between 0-6 km, and even 50-60 knots between
0-3 km. Hodographs indicate nice clockwise turning of winds with
height in part to the proximity of the nearby surface low.
MLCAPEs of ~ 1000 J/kg is also forecast. These parameters will
set the stage for showers and thunderstorms as they develop
along and ahead of a trailing cold front as it moves from west
to east through our region Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
evening. High resolution models indicate convective
lines/bowing segments, and perhaps some discrete supercells.
This will result in damaging winds being the main severe
weather threat. However, a few tornadoes may occur given the
setup (discrete supercells), especially along and southeast of
I-71 where SRH values are the highest. In addition, isolated
large hail may occur, given rotating updrafts, and locally heavy
rain/localized flash flooding may result after the morning
widespread rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches (making for moist soils).
These threats have been placed in the latest HWO. Highs on
Sunday will range from the mid 50s far northwest, to perhaps the
lower to mid 70s across the southeast. It will also become
breezy to locally windy on the synoptic scale with wind gusts
between 25 and 35 mph in the warm sector.

For Sunday night, as the low continues on its track northeast
toward New England, the cold front will move east of our area
during the early evening, bring the end to the severe weather
threat. CAA and a few/scattered showers will be possible during
the evening, with pcpn tapering off from west to east
overnight. Post-frontal stratocumulus will remain. Winds will be
gusty between 25 and 35 mph. Temperatures will cool off with
lows bottoming out from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shower activity early Monday will be before daybreak as the
upper trough is east of the CWA and the surface low well into
New England. High pressure will be building in with a clearing
sky, but the coldest highs of the forecast will occur on this
day, only reaching the low to mid 50s.

Temperatures will rebound overnight and work back to above
normal, particularly on nighttime lows as south winds prevail
and pump in a moist feed to the Ohio Valley.

Long range models diverge significantly in the broad pattern
for the latter part of the week, but increased chances of
showers and likely some thunderstorms seems the most likely
scenario, increasing Wednesday night and becoming likely by
Thursday. The evolution of the surface low and placement of the
upper low pressure centers really begin to diverge at this point
and forecast just includes chance pops with above normal
temperatures. Readings will cool again on Friday after the rain,
but the uncertainty of the models is difficult to say whether
or not it will be a sharp dropoff or not. Attm, feel that the
forecast may be too cool for the late week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will overspread the TAF sites overnight. Some embedded
thunder will be possible late in the overnight hours and into
the early daytime morning hours. There will then be a lull or
decrease in precipitation before thunderstorms develop and move
through the TAF sites during the afternoon hours. Shower
activity will linger into the evening and overnight hours
Sunday night.

Winds will continue to increase and become gusty. Off and on
wind gusts are expected through the TAF period with the
strongest gusts during the daytime hours.

Cigs will gradually lower into the MVFR category and vsbys will
be reduced with heavier shower and thunderstorm activity.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings expected to linger into Sunday night and
Monday morning. MVFR conditions are also possible Wednesday
night and Thursday. Thunderstorms possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
318 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-141100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
318 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe weather will be possible Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
evening. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat.
However, isolated large hail, a few tornadoes, and localized flash
flooding will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed on Sunday.

OHZ034-035-141100-
Mercer-Auglaize-
318 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Several rounds of rain may lead to some localized flooding issues on
Sunday. In addition, there is an isolated risk for a strong or
severe storm Sunday afternoon. Damaging winds would be the main
severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.