Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1052 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple disturbances will allow for several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through Thursday night. High pressure and dry
conditions will move into the region Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
over our southern zones through early morning. Ample instability
interacting with a digging vort max/short wave to our west will
combine with low level focus/forcing for this to occur. Elsewhere,
low chances for showers/storms will exist as a weak cold front
slowly settles into the region from the northwest.

Models still want to develop at least some pockets of low
stratus and/or patchy fog late. The patchy fog should be
focused more across the north where skies will be mostly clear
to start. However, hard to tell at this point whether clouds
from convection in the south may clear out late to allow fog to
form there. Will have to monitor trends overnight.

Went close to guidance for the temperatures overnight with low
temperatures in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another disturbance is expected to move through during the day
on Wednesday allowing for additional shower and thunderstorm
activity. The greatest coverage is expected to be across
southeastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon
hours. Precipitation will decrease in coverage Wednesday night.
Given DCAPE values, cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe
storm especially across southeastern portions of the region.

Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the low to
middle 80s with lows Wednesday night dropping down into the low
to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will push southeast across the area Thursday and
Thursday night, reaching our far southern border by daybreak
Friday. Ahead of the front, the airmass will destabilize through
Thursday afternoon as we warm into the mid to perhaps upper 80s.
With decent instability and some lower level forcing along/ahead of
the front, expect to see at least some scattered thunderstorm
development across northern portions of our area Thursday afternoon,
sagging into southern portions of our fa heading into Thursday
evening. 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear values are forecast to trend
slightly upward as we progress through Thursday afternoon/evening.
This will result in the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms,
particularly across our southern areas through late afternoon/early
evening. Thunderstorms coverage should slowly decrease overnight as
we lose some of the diurnal heating and the front continues to push
south.

By Friday the front should be south of our area, but will go
ahead and linger a very low end pop across our far south for a
period Friday afternoon in the vicinity of the front. With a slightly
cooler and drier airmass working in behind the front, expect highs
on Friday mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Surface high pressure will build east into the region Friday night
into Saturday, before shifting off to the east on Sunday. This will
keep our fa dry through the weekend with a gradual moderation in
temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the lower 80s,
warming to the mid 80s for highs on Sunday.

Short wave energy dropping down from the northwest will bring a
chance of showers later Monday and into the day on Tuesday. Highs
both days will be mainly in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered convection will be ongoing early this evening.
Thereafter, the focus should shift more toward the southern
terminals as a digging disturbance in the northwest flow aloft
moves southeast. This feature will be associated with some low
level convergence, so will continue with the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms at KCVG/KLUK/KILN.

For later in the overnight period, precipitation will shift to
the east and should taper off at the southern terminals. A weak
cold front will be entering our forecast area late. Models
continue to hint at the development of MVFR ceilings in the
1000 to 1500 foot range, with pockets of IFR possible. Am not
ready to bite on the IFR ceilings just yet, but if confidence
increases, they may have to be added with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Some local MVFR visibilities may develop as well late.

On Wednesday, the weak front will move east across our region.
MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR with diurnal heating. Some
scattered convection will be possible during peaking heating,
mainly for our eastern terminals of KCMH/KLCK. Have a VCSH at
these sites for now.

For tomorrow night, we should be in the wake of the cold front
with skies becoming mostly clear. A few showers/storms may move
into the southern Great Lakes toward morning ahead of the next
cold front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times during the day
Wednesday then Thursday afternoon and night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Novak
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
930 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-071100-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
930 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A cold front will cross south through the region late Thursday. As
the front crosses, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe
weather threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-071100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
930 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A cold front will cross south through the region late Thursday. As
the front crosses, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe
weather threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
916 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE GROVE CITY         39.88N 83.07W
08/06/2019  M1.20 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN LAST TWENTY FIVE MINUTES.

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

KYZ097>099-070215-
Robertson KY-Mason KY-Bracken KY-
942 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MASON...ROBERTSON
AND SOUTHEASTERN BRACKEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 941 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 11 miles
northeast of Cynthiana, moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Mount Olivet, Sardis, US Route 62 at State Route 875, Blue Licks
Battlefield, Abigail, Burika, Alhambra, Stonewall, Mitchells Mill,
Santa Fe, Lowell, Kentontown, Piqua, US Route 62 at State Route 616,
Hittville, US Route 62 at State Route 19 and Blue Licks Springs.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3843 8400 3844 8402 3846 8410 3848 8413
      3848 8415 3849 8415 3849 8417 3850 8416
      3850 8418 3852 8418 3856 8416 3855 8421
      3856 8422 3864 8395 3847 8389 3849 8393
      3842 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 257DEG 20KT 3851 8416

ch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

KYZ093-OHZ077-078-070215-
Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-
1007 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN CLERMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 1007 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Terrace
Park, moving east at 45 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Norwood, Fort Thomas, Newport, Madeira, Highland Heights,
Milford, Bellevue, Dayton, Southgate, Forestville, Amelia, Mariemont,
Wilder, Terrace Park, Batavia, Silver Grove, Melbourne, Salem Heights
and Camp Dennison.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 6 and 11.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3905 8447 3919 8447 3921 8412 3900 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 272DEG 37KT 3911 8431

Hickman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT     39.10N 84.42W
08/06/2019  M47 MPH          HAMILTON           OH   ASOS

&&

HICKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1011 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N MOUNT STERLING        39.72N 83.27W
08/06/2019                   MADISON            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1131 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

KYZ092-093-OHZ077-078-070400-
Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-
1131 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KENTON...CAMPBELL...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN CLERMONT COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1130 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Taylor
Mill, moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Independence, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Edgewood,
Alexandria, Fort Mitchell, Highland Heights, Taylor Mill, Fort
Wright, Southgate, Crestview Hills, Lakeside Park, Claryville,
Forestville, Amelia, Wilder, New Richmond and Batavia.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3902 8460 3914 8422 3888 8410 3888 8416
      3887 8423 3887 8425 3885 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 261DEG 20KT 3897 8446

Franks