Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
142 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region today as a
front drops south into the area. The front will lift back north
on Memorial Day keeping scattered storms in the forecast. Warm
and humid conditions will be the rule into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning thunderstorm complex associated with an MCV has
cleared ILN/s eastern counties.

Airmass is expected to recover with moderate instability
developing this aftn. Shortwave moving thru the region in the
westerly flow around the north side of the ridge will help
focus convection this aftn into this evening.

Bulk shear of 40 kts will support the potential for organized
storms and isold supercells. Damaging winds and large hail are
the primary threats with generally weak low level hodographs.
The main time frame looks to be between 2 PM and 9 PM with the
most favorable location over ILN/s southern half - where best
instability is expected to exist. Have updated the HWO
highlighting this potential severe weather threat.

Today will be another warm and humid day. Dewpoints will remain
in the mid 60s, while highs will ranging from the upper 70s in
West Central Ohio to the mid to upper 80s in Northern KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front will drop south of the region before stalling near the
Ohio River. Pcpn should diminish with the loss of heating.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on the north side of the
front, as lows will range in the lower 60s in the north to the
mid 60s south.

The front will lift north across the region on Monday. Expect
some scattered storms to pop around the front throughout the
day. Highs will one again range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Mid level ridge builds Monday night and Tuesday, pushing the
front into the Great Lakes. Storms will be sliding east through
the Lakes and the southern edge could brush northern areas
Monday night. Tuesday is forecast to be dry with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trof will keep
moist and unstable air advecting into the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the day. As the upper level
trof slides east Wednesday night and Thursday, showers and
thunderstorms will remain a possibility. Finally by Thursday
night, a cold front will push through the region, bringing an
end to the active weather.

Friday should be dry as high pressure ridge slides across the
area, but scattered thunderstorms will be possible again by
Saturday as another upper level trof slides through the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage in the moderately
unstable airmass over the Ohio Valley ahead of a shortwave
located over Southern Illinois. Bulk shear will support
organized storms with damaging winds and large hail possible
this aftn into early evening. Have a tempo group in TAFs for
time when the best threat for storms is forecast. Have MVFR
ceilings and IFR vsbys in the storms but brief IFR ceilings
are possible.

With the passage of this s/w - thunderstorms will diminish
early this evening with the front slipping south of the Ohio
River and stalling out overnight. Fog and low clouds are
expected to develop north of the front. The best chance for IFR
conditions will occur across the southern TAF sites.

Vsbys will improve and expect ceilings to lift to VFR by late
morning. The front to lift back north as a warm front Monday
with additional thunderstorms expected.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into Monday
night, then again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
955 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271400-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
955 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region today. Damaging
winds and large hail will be a possibility with these storms. Heavy
rainfall will be a concern, resulting in potential flooding issues.
The main timeframe for severe weather will be between 2 PM to 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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