Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves south through
the region. The cold front will then stall near the Ohio River
by Friday morning. This front will slowly dissipate which will
result in the return of early summer like weather for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Much of the region has been temporarily worked over by a now
weakened MCS now south and east of the area. A cluster of
showers/storms will move across the Ohio River Valley through
early afternoon. Thereafter, we should recover with MLCAPES
pushing around 1500 J/kg ahead of a cold front moving into the
region from the northwest. Latest CAMs suggest that scatter
shower/thunderstorms development will be greatest across the
southern half of the CWFA, particularly near the Ohio River.
With moderate instability and moderate shear, a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into this
evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary
severe weather threats.

Winds will strengthen and gust up to 30 mph this afternoon.
Temperatures should recover to the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Storms may continue into the evening near the Ohio River.
Additional activity may develop along a cold front pushing south
into the forecast area. This will bring a brief chance of storms
to central Ohio before instability diminishes. The front will
continue south through the night and stall in the far southern
part of the forecast area. The western end of the boundary will
extend northwest connecting up to a low in the midwest. Showers
and thunderstorms may develop along the front on Friday. Given
the frontal position, the greatest chance is in the Tri-State.
With the boundary in the area, there will be a reasonable
gradient in temperatures. Lows will range from the mid 50s to
mid 60s with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm and mostly dry Friday night will be in place with low
temperatures only dropping down into the 60s.  Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the day on Saturday with a greater chance
for thunderstorm development near and north of Interstate 70.  There
is the potential that some of these storms across this area will
produce damaging winds and large hail.

With a frontal boundary in the vicinity on Sunday expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to move across the region.  This
precipitation has the potential to be a little more widespread and
therefore high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to middle
80s across the region.

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Monday as a disturbance
moves across the area.  Storm chances will be a little more isolated
for Tuesday before a more pronounced system on Wednesday brings
gusty winds and additional thunderstorm chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast into our region this afternoon
and evening. An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow aloft
will combine with the advancing front and diurnal instability to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity is expected
to wane this evening. VCTS/CB has been placed at all sites for a
period except KDAY. Brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities can
be expected with storms.

For the overnight period, although the front will eventually lay
out west to east along the Ohio River, weak return flow aloft
will occur up and over the boundary late. This will bring a low
chance of a shower/storm west of KCVG/KLUK late.

On Friday, a mid level ridge will slowly build northward into
the Ohio Valley. Old frontal boundary will slowly pivot
northeast as a warm front during the day. There could be a low
chance of a shower/storm across the western forecast area
through early afternoon near the advancing boundary. Thereafter,
mixing may reduce the weak ascent, allowing convection to wane,
despite peak heating.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1247 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

INZ066-OHZ055-056-063>065-070>072-074-241100-
Franklin IN-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hocking-
1247 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Central
Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activiation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-241100-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1247 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060>062-241100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-
1247 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW HUBER HEIGHTS      39.92N 84.18W
05/23/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   NEWSPAPER

            ONE TREE DOWNED NEAR OLD SPRINGFIELD ROAD AND FROST ROAD.

0714 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW DOWNTOWN DAYTON   39.83N 84.22W
05/23/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   NEWSPAPER

            ONE TREE DOWNED ON BRANTFORD ROAD.

0718 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DOWNTOWN DAYTON   39.77N 84.20W
05/23/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   NEWSPAPER

            ONE TREE DOWNED ON A HOUSE ON FIVE OAKS AVENUE.

&&

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
310 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

INZ080-KYZ089-090-231945-
Switzerland IN-Carroll KY-Gallatin KY-
310 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SWITZERLAND...CARROLL AND
WESTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Carrollton,
moving east at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Warsaw, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Glencoe,
Ghent, Sparta, Prestonville, Brooksburg, Center Square, Braytown,
Langstaff, Locust, Markland, Moorefield, Quercus Grove and Mount
Sterling.

This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 44 and 62.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3873 8524 3870 8522 3869 8520
      3885 8520 3889 8488 3874 8482 3863 8502
      3864 8525 3873 8533 3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 265DEG 31KT 3876 8523

Hatzos