Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
508 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A boundary running wnw to ese through the area will be a focus
for thunderstorm activity this evening. This boundary will lift
northward overnight as ridging aloft builds in, providing dry
conditions on Saturday. A low pressure system on Sunday will
bring gusty winds and another round of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #174 is now in effect for our southern
CWFA until 11 pm EDT. Previous discussion follows. --->

A boundary laying out wnw to ese will lift north tonight as
upper level ridging builds in. Storms firing along it will feed
off of unstable air with ample heating to the south, interacting
with a southward advancing cold front in northern Ohio. Between
these two features, an MCV tracking east out of Indiana will
also help initiate convection and give added spin to storms that
are present. This turning will help storms to deepen, increasing
the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy
rainfall.

Areas worked over from last night will have a quicker response
to any storms moving over them with regards to flooding
potential. Attm, this area is not experiencing any upstream
development but will continue to be monitored closely.

Overnight lows will range from the low 60s in most locations,
possibly upper 50s north of I-70 as the cold front noses in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Storms will have lifted northward overnight and should not be in
the picture on Saturday as the upper ridge builds in and the
earlier cold front from tonight lifts northeast as a warm front.
Southerly flow will result and temperatures will rise nicely
into the mid 80s, possibly upper 80s in the south.

Overnight, the warm influx of air will see lows bottom out
around 65 in most locations. Being in the warm sector, minimal
cloud cover is expected unless the system to the west tracks in
a little quicker than expected early Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Sunday into Sunday night, a mid level trough with embedded
short wave energy will pivot northeast from the central/southern
Plains to the western Great Lakes. This system continues to
show a decent surface low and fairly strong wind field. The mid
level ridge will move east on Sunday while the mid level
trough/embedded energy pushes a cold front east. A decent
surface pressure gradient, strong low level jet moving in ahead
of the cold front, and diurnal mixing, will result in a windy
day over much of the region. In fact, the 00Z ECMWF ensembles
and 12Z GFS momentum transfer from its soundings suggest that
locations across the western two-thirds CWFA may flirt with 40
knot gusts. Have allowed for wind gusts up to 45 mph at this
time, but we may eventually need a wind advisory if confidence
increases for 45 to 50 mph gusts. In terms of convective
coverage, this may come in two waves. We may see a weakening
area of showers/storms from late morning into early afternoon
pushing in from the west. The cold front itself is not expected
to move into the western CWFA until the evening. Thus, the best
chance for strong to severe storms will be across the west from
late afternoon into the evening along and just ahead of the cold
front. The threat for severe will diminish through the evening
as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens. The main
severe weather threat would be damaging winds given the strong
wind field. Will mention both threats in the HWO. Highs will
range from the upper 70s west to the mid 80s east. Lows by
Monday morning will range from the mid 50s northwest to the
lower 60s east.

As the mid level trough pushes northeast across the remainder
of the Great Lakes on Monday, the cold front will push east as
well. Any lingering shower activity should move out of our
eastern locations during the morning with skies becoming partly
cloudy. In a CAA pattern, temperatures will vary. Highs will
range from the mid 60s northwest to near 80 southeast.

High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to move into
the region Monday night, then move east on Tuesday. This should
provide a window of dry weather. After cooler lows in the mid
40s north to the lower 50s south, highs on Tuesday will range
from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s south.

The extended forecast continues to be muddled with uncertainty
(in terms of timing) as we head into mid to late week next week.
A warm front will likely move into the region on Wednesday
followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The
front may stall out across the region on Thursday. Have kept a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast during this
period. Highs will mostly be in the 80s.

By Friday, models indicate that mid level ridging may try to
assert itself as it builds northward into the Ohio Valley,
sending old frontal boundary north as a warm front. Have gone
with a dry forecast along with increasing humidity and warm
temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with west-
northwest winds gusting to 15-20 mph this afternoon. Some fog is
possible over KLUK in the Miami/Ohio river valley confluence,
but most of the region and TAF sites will remain VFR with the
exception of any convective activity that sparks this afternoon.

This potential activity remains in very high question as to
when or where it begins. Storms that develop will have a high
potential for very heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Given the
uncertainty, removed thunderstorms from earlier forecast in
favor of a later timing of showers and will be quick to amend if
storms initiate upstream of any of the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
344 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>064-070>072-080-
181945-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Highland-
344 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorm activity will develop and continue into the
overnight hours. These storms have a potential to produce very heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and even large hail.

Flooding in areas that have already been hit from storms yesterday
remains a concern with the  presence of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong winds on Sunday may see gusts exceed 40 mph. Storms are
expected to develop along or just ahead of an eastward-moving cold
front. These storms may contain damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ077>079-181945-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
344 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorm activity will develop and continue into the
overnight hours. These storms have a potential to produce very heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and even large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong winds on Sunday may see gusts exceed 40 mph. Storms are
expected to develop along or just ahead of an eastward-moving cold
front. These storms may contain damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

OHZ065-073-074-082-181945-
Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Pike-
344 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorm activity will develop and continue into the
overnight hours. These storms have a potential to produce very heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and even large hail.

Flooding in areas that have already been hit from storms yesterday
remains a concern with the presence of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong winds on Sunday may see gusts 35 to 40 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

KYZ100-OHZ081-088-181945-
Lewis-Adams-Scioto-
344 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorm activity will develop and continue into the
overnight hours. These storms have a potential to produce very heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and even large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong winds on Sunday may see gusts 35 to 40 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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