Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
812 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure
will allow for mostly dry conditions tonight through the day on
Saturday. A strong storm system will move through Saturday
night through Sunday night bringing the potential for severe
weather on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will work through the area today. Showers and
thunderstorms will move through this morning. Severe storms will
be possible this morning. Gusty winds will continue through the
day. Cloud cover will decrease as the precipitation comes to an
end.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 60s to the
middle 70s with the warmest readings across the Scioto Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will work into the region tonight allowing for
decreasing clouds and winds. Went close to the blend for
temperatures tonight with lows in the 40s.

Cloud cover will be on the increase on Saturday. A few showers
will be possible near and south of the Ohio River on Saturday as
a system begins to work into the area. High temperatures will
generally be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed low in the southern Plains at the beginning of the period will
open up and lift through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
through Sunday night. Precipitation will spread across the region
Saturday night ahead of a warm front that will approach the Ohio
River by early Sunday morning.

The warm front will lift north as a surface low moves northeast out
of the lower Ohio Valley and across the forecast area. There will be
destabilization in the warm sector although there is some
uncertainty how much will occur. Wind fields will be very strong
providing plentiful shear. So if updrafts can become robust enough,
then there will be the potential for severe storms with damaging
winds and possibly tornadoes. There could be some pretty good rain
rates, so localized flood issues cannot be ruled out.

As the low and associated trailing cold front move east of the area
Sunday evening precipitation will diminish. However, some wrap
around showers will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Temperatures will become considerably cooler with Monday only rising
into the lower to mid 50s.

Ridging will work across the area on Tuesday and continue to
influence the region into Wednesday. This will result in a dry
period with readings rebounding to above normal. Showers will return
Wednesday night into Thursday as the next system moves into the
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LLWS will be present at the start of the TAF period.  Shower
activity and some thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites
this morning as a cold front moves through. Brief MVFR vsbys and
cigs will be likely. Gusty winds will continue through the day
today before decreasing this evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms are possible on
Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-131115-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
704 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Wind gusts around 40 mph will be possible today. Isolated severe
storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible this
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe weather will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds will be the primarily threat, however isolated large
hail, flash flooding, and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required on Sunday.

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