Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east through the remainder of
the region overnight. Much cooler conditions will return Friday
and persist into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will continue to move east across the region
overnight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the front
will persist across our eastern/southern zones through early
morning before ending. An isolated strong to severe storm may
still be possible before these storms move out. Damaging winds
will be the primary severe weather threat with locally heavy
rain and small hail. Once the front passes, skies will become
clear. Post-frontal CAA stratocumulus is lagging behind the
front, but should push into our western zones late. Winds will
remain gusty, but should remain below wind advisory criteria,
so the Wind Advisory was cancelled early. Lows will range from
the upper 30s/lower 40s west to the mid 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a mean mid level trough will dig east into the Great
Lakes. An embedded disturbance in this trough, along with low
level convergence in the vicinity of a low level trough will
bring the best chance of showers to northern locations. It will
become cloudy. It will remain gusty from the west between 25
and 30 knots. Highs will be much colder, ranging from the lower
40s west to the mid 40s to near 50 east.

For Friday night, pcpn will decrease as axis of mid level trough
begins to move east. Before ending, there could be a little snow
mixed in across the far north. Some partial clearing is expected
to occur west late. Winds will relax overnight. Lows will range
from the upper 20s west to the lower 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow with surface high pressure building into the area
Saturday. This high will offer a temporary dry period. Expect
Saturdays temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal with highs
from the upper 30s north to the lower/mid 40s south.

Model solutions continue to differ on handling s/w and associated
surface low tracking through the Great Lakes Sunday. Do to
uncertainty and dry airmass will limit pops to slight chance/chance
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday highs to range from near 40
north to the upper 40s south.

Northwest confluent mid level flow with surface high pressure
building across the Great Lakes offering dry weather early next
week. Highs Monday to range from the upper 30s north to the upper
40s south. Temperatures to warm slightly Tuesday with highs from the
lower 40s north to near 50 south.

Model solutions differ on timing of next mid level shortwave and
associated pcpn for the middle of next week. Confidence continues to
be low so will limit pops to chance category Wednesday into
Thursday. Temperatures to continue to warm with Wednesdays highs
from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south and 50 to 55
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Severe thunderstorms are moving east of TAF sites. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity for the next few
hours, until instability decreases with loss of daytime heating
and with drier air working in behind a cold front. Strong winds
over 30 knots and wind shear around 50 knots will persist for
several more hours in the tight pressure gradient around deep
low pressure crossing the Great Lakes. After a period of VFR
later tonight, models show a batch of low level moisture on
Friday that may result in MVFR ceilings at all sites, with
showers possible. Winds will remain rather strong through the
end of the forecast, with gusts over 20 knots expected Friday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and wind gusts over 25 kt likely Friday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

KYZ096>100-OHZ056-064-065-073-074-078>082-088-151200-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1011 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move out of the region by
early morning. An isolated strong or severe storm may be possible
with damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>055-060>063-070>072-077-151200-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Hardin-
Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
1011 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
923 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

OHZ054-055-063-064-072-150200-
Fayette OH-Madison OH-Clinton OH-Franklin OH-Pickaway OH-
923 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN
PICKAWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 923 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Bloomingburg to Sabina, moving northeast at 65
mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Grove City, Washington Court House, Sabina, Mount Sterling,
Jeffersonville, Bloomingburg, Harrisburg, Orient, Milledgeville,
Octa, Deer Creek Lake, Chenoweth, Interstate 71 at State Route 38,
Derby, Jasper Mills, Madison Mills, Interstate 71 at US Route 35 and
Pancoastburg.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 64 and 96.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3986 8309 3962 8316 3946 8367 3964 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 235DEG 57KT 3965 8346 3951 8362

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
932 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

KYZ093-095>097-OHZ078-079-150200-
Pendleton KY-Campbell KY-Bracken KY-Grant KY-Clermont OH-Brown OH-
932 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BRACKEN...SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...PENDLETON...SOUTH CENTRAL CLERMONT
AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 932 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Williamstown, moving northeast at 65 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Falmouth, Dry Ridge, Augusta, Felicity, Brooksville,
Butler, Morgan, Corinth, Mentor, Moscow, Neville, Chilo, Mount
Auburn, Stewartsville, Willow Grove, Bradford, Saltair, Powersville
and Peach Grove.

This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 145 and 158.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3863 8468 3896 8414 3871 8395 3856 8440
      3856 8441 3855 8442 3854 8447 3853 8448
      3849 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 235DEG 57KT 3862 8456

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             1 NW MILFORD            39.18N 84.29W
03/14/2019  M1.00 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

&&

KK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

OHZ055-056-065-150230-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-Franklin OH-
957 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD AND CENTRAL LICKING COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
EDT...

At 957 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Reynoldsburg, moving northeast at 70 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Newark, Reynoldsburg, Gahanna, Pickerington, Bexley, Heath,
Granville, Pataskala, Canal Winchester, Groveport, Hebron, Granville
South, Marne, Beechwood Trails, Summit Station, Whitehall, Etna, New
Albany and Obetz.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 103 and 125.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3983 8291 3994 8297 4024 8253 4004 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 234DEG 62KT 3994 8281

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1000 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

OHZ073-080-082-150230-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Ross OH-
1000 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Marshall,
moving northeast at 65 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Bainbridge, Pike Lake, Kincaid Springs, Belfast, Rocky Fork
Point, Cynthiana, Highland Holiday, Sinking Spring, Rocky Fork Lake,
Bourneville, Rainsboro, Paint Creek State Park, Berrysville and
Highland County Airport.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3903 8366 3918 8357 3937 8310 3911 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 235DEG 57KT 3912 8352

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1018 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

OHZ065-074-150245-
Fairfield OH-Hocking OH-
1018 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFIELD AND
HOCKING COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 1017 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles west of
Logan, moving east at 65 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Logan, Nelsonville, Bremen, Hocking Hills State Park, Hide-A-Way
Hills, Starr, Murray City, Sugar Grove, Gibisonville, Ilesboro,
Hideaway Hills, Haydenville, Lake Logan State Park, South
Bloomingville, North Berne, Enterprise, Union Furnace, Rockbridge,
Oreville and Carbon Hill.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3939 8229 3938 8233
      3939 8251 3937 8252 3937 8263 3936 8264
      3937 8275 3972 8252 3975 8240 3974 8240
      3974 8237 3960 8238 3959 8226 3956 8226
      3955 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 249DEG 56KT 3955 8254

KC