Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
335 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Barry will move through the Ohio Valley tonight
and Wednesday, bringing numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
It will remain humid through the entire week with hot conditions
expected Thursday through the weekend as a large dome of heat
develops over much of the eastern half of the United States. Outside
of rain chances tonight and Wednesday, much of the rest of the
week and into the first part of the weekend will remain dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
move into the forecast area from the west this evening as the
remnants of Barry move toward the region. High pwats will bring
the threat for locally heavy rainfall, although there should be
some appreciable storm motion. Concern will be where storms
line up over the same region depending on the mean steering
flow which may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. This
is covered in the latest HWO. In addition, any severe threat
should be relegated to an isolated strong or severe wind gust
due to pcpn loading, which will be highest this afternoon and
this evening when instability will be at its greatest (allowing
cores to reach there peak height). This is also covered in the
HWO as well. The hail threat is minimal due to high freezing
level, skinny-like CAPEs, and relatively poor mid level lapse
rates. Have gone with coverage/likely PoPs for tonight as low
level moisture transport and ascent with the approaching
disturbance work in tandem. Overall thunder threat should
decrease overnight as instability diminishes, but locally heavy
rainfall will remain. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Barry will move east across the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be
ongoing during the morning. By afternoon, pcpn coverage will
begin to shift to the east as the region starts to become more
in the wake of the system. Again, high pwats (2 inches plus),
WCDs, skinny CAPEs, and high freezing levels will make
collision/coalescence favorable with warm core centroids. Event
so, overall rainfall amounts on a larger scale should be held in
check, with only isolated threats for flooding/flash flooding.
This will continued to be mentioned in the HWO. It will be
humid, but temperatures will probably be the coolest of the week
and upcoming weekend due to clouds and pcpn. Highs will warm
into the lower to mid 80s.

For Wednesday night, some weak mid level ridging will try to
build into our area. This should allow for a rapid decrease in
pcpn coverage/threat with skies becoming partly cloudy. It will
be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The majority of the moisture from what is left of Barry will be
east of the region by Thursday morning. However there is a
little lingering instability on Thursday to keep a 20 PoP in the
forecast for about the southern 2/3 of the fa. Warm and humid
conditions will affect the region with highs in the lower 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This would push the heat index over
100 degrees.

Thursday night into Friday, the H5 ridge starts to build north.
This will allow the heat and humidity to build and peak Friday
into Saturday. Highs are forecast to push into the mid 90s and
dewpoints into the mid 70s, producing heat indices around 105.
Will hold off on issuing an Excessive Heat Watch, but will keep
the mention in the HWO.

The heat and humidity will begin to lower Sunday as the H5
ridge begins to break down as a backdoor cold front drops into
the region. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast with the front
in the area.

The front should be south of the region Monday, but lingering
lift across the region could produce some scattered convection.
Highs on Monday will be down into the upper 80s due to the cloud
cover and convection.

By Tuesday, high pressure centered over the Great Plains will
be bringing less humid air into the region. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Barry over the middle Mississippi River Valley
will move east into the Ohio Valley tonight. As this occurs,
low level moisture transport/ascent will bring numerous showers
and embedded thunderstorms early on, with mainly numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms late as the overall instability
wanes. The very moist airmass will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall where MVFR/IFR conditions may occur,
with lower visibilities of LIFR possible in the heavier
downpours. Can not get too specific with these low conditions
just yet at the terminals, but have allowed for some MVFR
conditions with either showers or storms to occur late this
afternoon into this evening. For the overnight, ceilings will
lower as the airmass cools and saturates with IFR ceilings
expected toward 12Z Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the remnants of Barry will continue to move east.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will slowly move east as
well. We should see a decreasing trend in shower/storm coverage
from west to east between 15Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday as the
region eventually finds itself in the wake of this system. IFR
ceilings and MVFR visibilities will gradually improve through
the day with VFR conditions becoming predominate between 21Z
Wednesday and 00Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-170815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
409 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase later this
afternoon and moreso tonight as the remnants of Barry move through
the area. Torrential rainfall rates may cause isolated instances of
brief flooding or flash flooding. Gusty winds may also accompany some
of the stronger storms causing isolated tree or power line damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat with any showers and
storms on Wednesday, leading to possible localized flooding or flash
flooding. Heat indices above 100 are likely Thursday and Sunday,
with heat indices above 105 possible Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

OHZ051>053-061-062-070-071-162030-
Champaign OH-Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-
Miami OH-
348 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHAMPAIGN...
EASTERN BUTLER...NORTHERN WARREN...WESTERN CLARK...GREENE...
MONTGOMERY AND CENTRAL MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from West Milton to Mason, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Springfield, Kettering, Middletown, Beavercreek, Huber
Heights, Fairborn, Mason, Xenia, Troy, Trotwood, Miamisburg, Lebanon,
Springboro, Vandalia, Englewood, Monroe, Franklin, Tipp City and
Bellbrook.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 23 and 54.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 22 and 77.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4026 8381 3958 8382 3956 8386 3957 8398
      3951 8398 3932 8439 3999 8441 4019 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 227DEG 30KT 3993 8433 3937 8433

Franks

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND GST     KMGY WRIGHT BROS APT    39.59N 84.22W
07/16/2019  M49.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E ENGLEWOOD           39.87N 84.23W
07/16/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 3 TO 5 INCH TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

OHZ026-035-043-044-052-162115-
Champaign OH-Auglaize OH-Logan OH-Shelby OH-Hardin OH-
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SHELBY...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN...LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN AUGLAIZE AND HARDIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Lima to 6 miles northwest of St. Paris, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Bellefontaine, Kenton, Ada, Jackson Center, Forest, Russells Point,
De Graff, Lakeview, Dunkirk, Alger, Waynesfield, Belle Center, West
Mansfield, Chippewa Park, Northwood, Blanchard, Roundhead, Quincy,
Mount Victory and Rushsylvania.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4036 8354 4018 8402 4019 8410
      4064 8407 4065 8388 4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 225DEG 22KT 4076 8401 4017 8406

Franks

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
433 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

OHZ044-045-051>054-162115-
Champaign OH-Logan OH-Madison OH-Union OH-Clark OH-Miami OH-
433 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHAMPAIGN...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND CLARK COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...CENTRAL
MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 432 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near St. Paris to Yellow Springs, moving northeast at
30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Marysville, Urbana, London, New Carlisle, Northridge,
West Jefferson, Enon, St. Paris, West Liberty, South Charleston,
Mechanicsburg, North Lewisburg, Choctaw Lake, Brown, Harmony, Lisbon,
Brighton, Milford Center and Christiansburg.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 42 and 82.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3987 8329 3978 8374 3979 8374 3980 8383
      3982 8383 3983 8394 3984 8394 3984 8396
      3986 8405 3988 8405 3988 8407 4014 8413
      4039 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 240DEG 27KT 4017 8402 3978 8389

Franks

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