Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
407 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Very windy conditions will occur ahead of a cold front that
will sweep across the area late this afternoon and early this
evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will occur as well with
some severe storms possible. Much cooler conditions will return
Friday and persist into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A potent vertically stacked low pressure system near the middle
Mississippi River Valley will quickly move northeast to the
western Great Lakes this evening. As this occurs, a cold front
will sweep east across the terminals this evening.

Thunderstorms are expected along a prefrontal trof axis late
this afternoon into this evening. Severe storms will be
possible. Tremendous shear is in place, and it is all about the
instability. MLCAPEs of up to 500 J/kg are expected/forecast,
which is enough to warrant main severe weather threats of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In addition, a tight surface
pressure gradient and mixing of strong winds aloft will produce
synoptic gusts in excess of 40 to 50 knots. In fact, have
upgraded portion of the region, roughly along I-71 and points
east/southeast, to a High Wind Warning until 8 pm EDT where
winds may gust near or in excess of 60 mph outside of
thunderstorms. Wind Advisory will then take back over for this
region until 11 pm EDT. The remainder of the area is under a
Wind Advisory until 11 pm EDT.

For later tonight, a dry slot will follow behind cold frontal
passage, with only scattered clouds expected as showers and
thunderstorms move out of our area. Winds will remain gusty
overnight, but should show a decrease in gusts. Lows will range
from the upper 30s/lower 40s west to the mid 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a mean mid level trough will dig east into the Great
Lakes. An embedded disturbance in this trough, along with low
level convergence in the vicinity of a low level trough will
bring the best chance of showers to northern locations. It will
become cloudy. It will remain gusty from the west between 25
and 30 knots. Highs will be much colder, ranging from the lower
40s west to the mid 40s to near 50 east.

For Friday night, pcpn will decrease as axis of mid level trough
begins to move east. Before ending, there could be a little snow
mixed in across the far north. Some partial clearing is expected
to occur west late. Winds will relax overnight. Lows will range
from the upper 20s west to the lower 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow with surface high pressure building into the area
Saturday. This high will offer a temporary dry period. Expect
Saturdays temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal with highs
from the upper 30s north to the lower/mid 40s south.

Model solutions continue to differ on handling s/w and associated
surface low tracking through the Great Lakes Sunday. Do to
uncertainty and dry airmass will limit pops to slight chance/chance
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday highs to range from near 40
north to the upper 40s south.

Northwest confluent mid level flow with surface high pressure
building across the Great Lakes offering dry weather early next
week. Highs Monday to range from the upper 30s north to the upper
40s south. Temperatures to warm slightly Tuesday with highs from the
lower 40s north to near 50 south.

Model solutions differ on timing of next mid level shortwave and
associated pcpn for the middle of next week. Confidence continues to
be low so will limit pops to chance category Wednesday into
Thursday. Temperatures to continue to warm with Wednesdays highs
from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south and 50 to 55
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A potent vertically stacked low pressure system near the middle
Mississippi River Valley will quickly move northeast to the
western Great Lakes this evening. As this occurs, a cold front
will sweep east across the terminals this evening.

Thunderstorms are expected at the terminals along a prefrontal
convergent trof late this afternoon into this evening. Severe
storms will be possible. In addition, a tight surface pressure
gradient and mixing of strong winds aloft will produce synoptic
gusts in excess of 40 knots. Non-convective LLWS will also occur
given strong wind regime. MVFR ceilings and visibilities with
pockets of IFR visibilities are expected with thunderstorms.

For tonight, a dry slot will follow behind cold frontal passage,
with only scattered clouds and VFR conditions. Winds will remain
gusty overnight, but should show a decrease in gusts between 06Z
and 12Z.

On Friday, a mean mid level trough will dig east into the Great
Lakes. An embedded disturbance in this trough, along with low
level convergence in the vicinity of a low level trough will
bring the best chance of showers to locations north of the
terminals. However, ceilings will drop into the MVFR category as
moist CAA occurs (ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet). It will
remain gusty from the west between 25 and 30 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and wind gusts over 25 kt likely Friday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>045-051>053-060-061.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-
     054>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-
     054>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ074-075-
     080.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ074-
     075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hickman

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
705 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLCK RICKENBACKER APT   39.81N 82.93W
03/14/2019  E46.00 MPH       FRANKLIN           OH   ASOS

&&

HICKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
707 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             NEW RICHMOND            38.95N 84.28W
03/14/2019  E0.75 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDR

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