Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1113 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue through the end of the
week with a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible
each day. A front will drop into the area on Sunday bringing a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expect mid to high clouds to be joined by some cu this afternoon
as the atmosphere warms up, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across the CWA. A few showers and thunderstorms are also
expected to pop up, mainly after 2 pm. Convection will likely be
diurnally-driven, and based on latest high resolution/CAM
guidance, the highest coverage may set up along a weak
convergent axis aligned from west to east across western and
central Ohio (roughly toward the I-70 corridor). Have
chance PoPs/scattered coverage across this area for several
hours during the afternoon/early evening, but with daytime
heating can't rule out a pop up just about anywhere so slight
chance PoPs/isolated coverage reside across the remainder of
the CWA. Despite decent CAPE, larger scale forcing and shear are
both weak, so severe weather is not expected although a
localized strong storm is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Remaining convection will diminish early in the period. Shear
axis is forecast to weaken. Thus, it looks like there will be
less forcing heading into Friday. Still cannot rule out some
isolated storms during the heat of the day. Lows will be in the
upper 60s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High temperatures through the long term will generally be in the 80s
with a few 90 degree readings possible on Saturday.  Low
temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s with a
few mid 60s readings possible Sunday night.  Made only minor changes
to the temperatures from the blend for the long term.

A few pop up afternoon thunderstorms will be possible across
northern portions of the region on Saturday.  On Sunday a frontal
boundary will move into the area allowing for a little higher
precipitation chances especially across central Ohio.  Working into
next week there will be thunderstorm chances each day with a
northwest flow aloft pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few to scattered cumulus will occur underneath a high deck
through much of the day. There will be isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms after 20Z. At this time there appears
to be a bit better chance of them occurring from KDAY to
KCMH/KLCK, so included a brief VCTS there. Precipitation chances
will end shortly after 00Z and clouds will diminish. Not out of
the question to see some visibility restrictions at KLUK late in
the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-281615-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening will be capable
of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TSTM WND GST     KI66 CLINTON CTY APT    39.50N 83.86W
06/27/2019  M48 MPH          CLINTON            OH   AWOS

&&

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1246 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

OHZ053-054-062-063-271715-
Fayette OH-Madison OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-
1246 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Cedarville, moving east at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cedarville, Jamestown, South Charleston, South Solon, Gladstone, Bell
Center, Shady Grove and Selma.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3966 8378 3979 8381 3986 8356 3967 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 248DEG 11KT 3974 8370

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

OHZ053-271715-
Clark OH-
1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLARK COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM EDT...

At 1247 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Harmony, Lisbon, Brighton, South Vienna, Catawba, Buck
Creek State Park, Pitchin, New Moorefield and Plattsburg.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 54 and 69.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4001 8358 3992 8354 3990 8355 3986 8356
      3980 8379 3995 8385 4002 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 254DEG 20KT 3991 8372

JDR

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