Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong weather disturbance will drive a cold front through the
Ohio Valley tonight with widespread showers and storms out in
front. Some of these may be severe. Clearing skies expected in
the wake of the front with a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday. A
weak front will drop into the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening with a threat for scattered storms as a warm and
humid airmass takes hold of the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Please reference recent SPC SWODY1 and SWOMCDs for the ILN area
for larger scale thinking of the severe weather threats. More
specifically - as of 18Z threats are just starting to
materialize as previously discussed in the morning AFD update.
Weak low level circulation over southern KY continues to slowly
develop and enhance low to mid level shear profiles to our
south. In fact, discrete cells /now tor-warned/ in central KY
area are manifestation of the enhanced SRH and deep shear
profile that is in place attendant to this migrating wave.
Expect this environment to spread into and through the ILN CWA
in the 3P-7P timeframe - primarily through the SVR Watch area.
So while the overall shear/instability profile is more toward
wind damage threats with amalgamating cold pools /like what is
currently moving through south-central Ohio as of 1845Z/,
there's enough of a push of low level flow through northeast KY
and south- central OH where any discrete cell or favorably
orthogonal line segment to the low level shear vector to rotate
and produce a brief tornado in the 3P-7P timeframe as it moves
south to north.

A good dose of convective rains expected with the deeper
convection pushing up the Scioto Valley too. There is some
concern for localized flash flooding with this activity should
it repeat over similar areas /especially considering flash-flood
prone terrain in this area and recent anomalous wet spell we've
been in/. Storm motions should be progressive however which
should limit flash flood potential in time and space. Most
concern is Hocking/Ross/Pike/Scioto/Lewis/Mason counties for
that threat.

Further west - it was noted on the collaboration call with SPC
/and we agree/ that the western fringe of severe potential is
tough to diagnose but in general feel that I-71 from Columbus to
Cincinnati is a realistic demarcation from no threat to some
marginal threat, with the better relative threat in that
corridor in the Columbus area. Across northern KY south of CVG,
just not enough destabilization plus this area will quickly get
on the backside of the low level circulation passing by to the
east. West of I-71 in Ohio/eastern Indiana - just too stable and
this area not likely even to see much thunder owing to thick
clouds and temperatures which have actually leveled off or
fallen a little this afternoon.

Things will wind down quickly early this evening. Likely a
several-hour dry period between exiting precipitation shield in
the eastern CWA to inbound frontal-forced showers later this
evening and early overnight. This will be in a weakening state
owing to veering profile in the boundary layer reducing
convergence - and entering the stability maximum from afternoon
rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley.
Before the drier atmosphere completely builds into the ILN CWA
/PWATS below 1"/ there are hints that there may be just enough
early afternoon diurnal instability to pop a shower or two in
southern Ohio before mixing of low level dewpoints toward the
later afternoon hours reduces instability. Overwhelming signal
in NWP is dry - so will keep any showers out of the forecast for
right now with the expectation that this will max out as some
taller cumulus.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak surface front will nose into the northern CWA from the Great
Lakes region as a wave of mid level energy translates east in the
mean westerly flow aloft. A shower may present itself about any time
during the day with a more robust shower or thunderstorm more likely
with peak daytime heating. The upper forcing is east of the area by
the time peak heating occurs, and the surface front is quite
diffuse, leading to a late day threat that should tail off quickly
in the evening.

High pressure at the surface will build in as heights increase
aloft, limiting any shower activity through early Friday to be very
widely scattered if they present themselves. Models are indicating
an upper level disturbance to work into the Ohio Valley from the
west-northwest on Friday and dissipate as it stretches out over the
Ohio River Saturday. This feature may combine with daytime heating
to pop a few storms but the airmass it is working into is not as
receptive to storm development. Expect isolated to widely scattered
pop-up storms to be possible in the late day through Saturday,
diminishing just as rapidly in the evening for a generally dry
overnight period everywhere. The upper forcing gets shunted
southwest as the ridge in the mid section of the country builds and
a stronger upper low in New England pulls energy into the Ohio
Valley from the north behind a surface cold front. Models show a
large swing in the chance of precipitation during this time but have
a general good agreement on the broader features. Have a low chance
of thunderstorms that are not necessarily diurnally driven from
Sunday onward.

Models have increased temperatures slightly through the period and
are generally looking for lows in the upper 60s to near 70 and highs
approaching 90. Dropped readings on Sunday by a few degrees and only
have highs in the low to mid 80s on Monday following the cold front.
Overnight lows will be from 65-70 through the period and be fairly
uniform across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread showers will cross the TAF sites this afternoon into
early evening. While a thunderstorms and associated brief
restrictions to IFR are possible just about at all the TAF
sites, the better relative likelihood will be at LCK/LUK/CMH
and perhaps ILN. Have included prevailing showers with MVFR
restrictions at all sites, and hit visibilities the hardest in
TEMPO at LCK/CMH/LUK where the best chance of some heavier
activity will occur. This precipitation will exit by 00Z in
central Ohio - a little earlier at DAY/CVG/ILN/LUK. Winds will
mostly be from the southwest, but some local variation to the
west/northwest will occur in the wake of a weak low pressure
which ripples northeast into central Ohio this evening. Thus,
wind forecasts later this afternoon and evening are of lower
confidence in both speed and direction. Secondary band of
showers on the cold front itself will spread into the area later
this evening and early in the overnight. Don't expect coverage
will be high enough to mention beyond a VCSH at CVG/DAY. Expect
these to be rapidly weakening. Should be some clearing
overnight outside the band of showers. Some light gusts of
westerly wind under a mix of clouds and sun on Tuesday with no
flight restrictions expected.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Binau

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>054-060>062-070>072-077-078-251800-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-
156 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ097>100-OHZ055-056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-251800-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
156 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early this evening.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado,
large hail, and flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon into early
this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KYZ097-099-OHZ079>081-242130-
Mason KY-Bracken KY-Highland OH-Adams OH-Brown OH-
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MASON...
NORTHEASTERN BRACKEN...BROWN...NORTHWESTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHWESTERN
HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from Williamsburg to Brooksville, moving northeast at 45
mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Hillsboro, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Ripley, Augusta,
Winchester, Sardinia, Seaman, Brooksville, New Market, Emerald,
Decatur, Russellville, Hamersville, Mowrystown, Dover, Higginsport,
Cherry Fork and Danville in Highland County.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3877 8407 3877 8405 3908 8400 3925 8365
      3900 8357 3872 8367 3866 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 246DEG 38KT 3904 8402 3869 8409

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
544 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

OHZ080>082-088-242215-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Scioto OH-Adams OH-
544 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN
PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Belfast to near Washington, moving northeast at
55 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
West Union, Manchester, Peebles, Winchester, Seaman, Pike Lake,
Kincaid Springs, Emerald, Blue Creek, Rarden, Cherry Fork, Sinking
Spring, Poplar Grove, Dunkinsville, Bradysville, State Route 348 at
State Route 125, May Hill, Wamsley, Serpent Mound and Locust Grove.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3869 8371 3869 8370 3902 8366 3914 8317
      3874 8324 3870 8351 3870 8354 3869 8357
      3868 8362 3867 8363 3865 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 238DEG 48KT 3906 8351 3860 8386

ch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
554 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

OHZ073-082-242230-
Pike OH-Ross OH-
554 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Greenfield to 6 miles southwest of Kincaid
Springs, moving east at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Greenfield, Bainbridge, Pike Lake, Kincaid Springs,
Cynthiana, North Folk Village, Frankfort, South Salem, Bourneville,
Andersonville, Lattaville, Austin, Buchanan, Paint Creek State Park,
Summithill, Knockemstiff, Massieville and Scioto Trail State Park.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3918 8292 3906 8337 3912 8337 3923 8334
      3923 8335 3925 8335 3924 8336 3925 8338
      3936 8338 3942 8334 3950 8298 3949 8298
      3948 8300 3948 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 260DEG 33KT 3938 8335 3906 8337

ch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S HILLSBORO             39.20N 83.61W
06/24/2019                   HIGHLAND           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF THE SENIOR CENTER IN HILLSBORO.
            OTHER LARGE BRANCHES WERE KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

JOHNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
607 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE MINERVA           38.67N 83.91W
06/24/2019                   MASON              KY   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS WERE KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

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