Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Wilmington, OH

158 
WGUS71 KILN 011636
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1236 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

OHC073-011645-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190901T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hocking OH-
1236 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOCKING COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1245 PM EDT...

Flood waters are receding, and additional flash flooding is no 
longer expected. Please continue to heed any road closures.

Please report previous flash flooding to the National Weather Service
by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and submitting your report
via social media.

LAT...LON 3938 8263 3937 8263 3937 8274 3939 8275
      3942 8275 3956 8267 3954 8254

$$

Hatzos

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance will
allow for showers and thunderstorms across the region today.
The frontal boundary will push east of the area by Monday
evening allowing for dry conditions Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers will be possible across northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area this morning. This afternoon into
the early evening hours expect shower and thunderstorm activity
to become more widespread with a surface boundary in the area
and an upper level disturbance moving through. Increased
precipitation chances across the region due to this. Given the
combination of shear and DCAPE values, there will be the
potential for isolated strong to severe damaging wind gusts
across a large portion of the area.

There is less instability across northwestern portions of the
forecast area and therefore have less thunder chances in across
that area. Also across northwestern portions of the forecast
area temperatures will be cooler with precipitation moving into
the region quicker and the location taking longer for the
surface boundary to push northward. After collaboration went
with high temperatures across northwestern portions of the
forecast area in the middle 70s, however some locations will
likely struggle to make it out of the lower 70s. Tightened up
the gradient of temperatures across the region with high
temperatures south of the Ohio River in the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Although the upper level disturbance will be pushing eastward
during the evening hours, the surface frontal boundary will
still be in the vicinity tonight allowing for at least some
chance for showers into the overnight hours.

As this frontal boundary works through the region tonight into
Monday morning, expect extensive low clouds to develop and move
into the region. Increased cloud cover during this time. In
addition, with low level moisture in place have patchy fog in
the forecast as well.

For Monday, limited most locations to a slight chance of
precipitation and then a chance across the Scioto Valley
region. There is not a lot in the way of forcing on Monday and
the frontal boundary will be pushing out of the area. As low
clouds begin to rise Monday morning however there will be the
potential for some light shower activity. There is a little bit
of instability during the afternoon and therefore have some
thunder chances in the afternoon before tapering them off at the
end of the short term.

Guidance and forecast builder values are very similar for high
temperatures on Monday and saw no reason to make any significant
changes to temperatures on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will pass across the region Monday night into Tuesday.
A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and continue
through the rest of the region Wednesday. Forcing and moisture look
limited, so kept any precipitation chances low, primarily across
southeastern counties. Another high will build in and then remain
until Dorian makes its way up the Atlantic coast and eventually
turns northeast.

Temperatures will briefly be able to warm above normal ahead of the
frontal passage. Temperatures will be below normal for the latter
part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few isolated light showers will be possible near KCMH and
KLCK this morning.

An upper level disturbance will move through during the
afternoon and into the evening hours. This will allow for more
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Continued the shra and
vcts mention in the TAFs for now. MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon today, although most cigs will remain VFR.

As the frontal boundary moves back to the south tonight winds
will shift again. MVFR to IFR cigs will work into the region
along with the potential for some fog as well.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will be possible into
Monday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
419 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

INZ050-058-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-020830-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
419 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-020830-
Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-
Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
419 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening. Isolated
strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging wind the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.