Tornado Warning 50, NWS Wilmington, NC

315 
WWUS52 KILM 200723
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

NCC019-200733-
/O.CAN.KILM.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-191020T0745Z/
Brunswick NC-
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3417 7852 3415 7852 3415 7854 3412 7854
      3412 7855 3410 7855 3409 7856 3406 7856
      3405 7857 3406 7857 3404 7858 3405 7863
      3418 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 186DEG 21KT 3406 7860 

$$

NCC047-200745-
/O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-191020T0745Z/
Columbus NC-
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY...
    
At 323 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bughill, or 12 miles northwest of Sunset Beach,
moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Old Dock and Crusoe Island around 340 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3417 7852 3415 7852 3415 7854 3412 7854
      3412 7855 3410 7855 3409 7856 3406 7856
      3405 7857 3406 7857 3404 7858 3405 7863
      3418 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 186DEG 21KT 3406 7860 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

MCK

369 
WWUS52 KILM 200729
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
329 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

NCC047-200745-
/O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-191020T0745Z/
Columbus NC-
329 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBUS COUNTY...
    
At 329 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bughill, or 14 miles northwest of Shallotte, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Old Dock and Crusoe Island around 340 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3417 7852 3415 7852 3415 7854 3412 7854
      3412 7855 3410 7855 3409 7856 3410 7862
      3418 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 186DEG 21KT 3410 7860 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

MCK

134 
WWUS52 KILM 200737
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

NCC047-200746-
/O.EXP.KILM.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-191020T0745Z/
Columbus NC-
337 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 345
AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3417 7852 3415 7852 3415 7854 3412 7854
      3412 7855 3410 7855 3409 7856 3410 7862
      3418 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 186DEG 21KT 3414 7859 

$$

MCK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
252 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions will develop later today into Monday as
the remnants of Nestor race off to the northeast. A cold front
will bring a chance of showers Tuesday. Rain chances will
increase again late in the week ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strongly forced convective line at least from a wind standpoint
continues to roll through the area. Forecast challenge is the
ending of the activity and a little later the clearing line.
High resolution guidance shows most of the activity exiting
stage left by 12-13 UTC with this the far northeast corner.
Clouds will linger for some time but sunshine should break out
from southwest to northeast this afternoon although the remnants
of Nestor will lag well behind. Tonight and Monday should see
clear and relatively mild conditions with lows in the lower 50s
or so and highs Monday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The story for the short term will be the cold front moving
across Tuesday. Little change in guidance with regards to timing
and QPF amounts which are lat Tuesday afternoon and QPF less
than a quarter of an inch. Highs ahead of the front will be into
the lower to possibly even the middle 80s. A bit cooler
Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s as
opposed to mostly 60s Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended remains somewhat unsettled mainly toward the middle
and latter part of the period. Guidance continues to struggle
with the evolution of either a slow cutoff low to the west or a
somewhat deep but open trough. The best approach is to maintain
the broad brush approach to pops for several days. No changes to
the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Post-Tropical Storm Nestor now making its way across the
southeastern US traversing our area overnight into early Sunday. Sub-
VFR conditions have developed across our area and this is not
expected to change. Expect IFR conditions to develop within the next
few hours and last through mid-day Sunday. Lingering stratus with
cold air advection will keep MVFR conditions through the forecast
period. Thunderstorms will develop this evening between 02Z SW and
12Z NE with the main hazard being strong winds and a few isolated
tornadoes. As the low moves across the area, there could be a few
areas of low-level wind shear. Current models show that the surface
wind speeds remain high enough to keep them out of the TAF, but a
low-level jet around 2k feet at 50 knots will make for hazardous air
travel. The max of this LLJ will move through our area between 03Z
and 15Z tomorrow.

Extended Outlook...Chance for early morning fog/stratus Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Cold front expected to move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening with VFR conditions following.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions underway this morning with only a few more hours
to go as the strong wind fields associated with the remnants of
Nestor move across. Have maintained the warning until 8 AM. A
small craft advisory will be needed for several hours in its
wake as seas are worked up taking some time to subside. For
later tonight and Monday winds and seas drop appreciably as weak
high pressure builds in. For the midweek and late week period,
no advisory flags are anticipated. Wind directions will be
somewhat changeable as a front moves across late Tuesday with a
return flow later in the week and northeast winds in between.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MCK/SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...TRA/SHK
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...MCK/SHK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
210130-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches tonight could cause minor
flooding. There is some potential that thunderstorms could produce
isolated tornadoes tonight, mainly closer to the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-210130-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches tonight could cause minor
flooding. There is some potential that thunderstorms could produce
isolated tornadoes tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ056-210130-
Coastal Georgetown-
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches tonight could cause minor
flooding. There is some potential that thunderstorms could produce
isolated tornadoes tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

Continued elevated rip risk on Sunday and possibly again on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

AMZ250-252-254-256-210130-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.