Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
806 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight, the weak low pressure
will persist over the area this weekend. Then, another cold front
will cross the region by Monday, followed by high pressure and drier
weather with temperatures closer to normal through Tuesday. A trough
of low pressure could increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main concern is severe thunderstorm threat through this evening
as an upper shortwave and surface cold front approach from the
west and the sea breeze moves inland in an environment favorable
for organized convection and strong downbursts given decent
mid-level dry air, instability and shear. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for our NC counties until 11 PM EDT.
The main hazards are damaging winds and large hail, although an
isolated tornado is possible, mainly near and north of
Wilmington. The front should push offshore around midnight with
improving conditions afterward. Lows should range from the mid
60s inland to near 70 at the coast, still slightly above normal
for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Deep layered troughing on the southern periphery of a
shortwave trough exiting the east CONUS could support
isolated/scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms especially across
northern/eastern sections. While MLCapes should remain limited to
the 500-1000 j/kg range, the mid level thermal trough could support
isolated hail. Otherwise, high temperatures in the middle to upper
80s most locations should feel somewhat cooler as compared with the
recent heat wave. Saturday night, expect low temperatures in the
middle to upper 60s most areas except lower 70s on the coast.

Sunday: While deep-layered troughing will persist, drier air should
maintain rain-free conditions. Ahead of another approaching cold
front, well-above normal for early June. Then, the next cold front
should cross the region late Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance
has trended drier with this front, so PoPs remain below 15 percent
with no mention of precipitation.

Monday: In the wake of dry cold fropa, high pressure will push
drier and somewhat cooler air into the region. temperatures should
only top out in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure should provide a dry day Tuesday featuring high
temperatures in the middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 60s inland
and around 70F on the coast. Then, high pressure will shift
offshore. Resulting southwest flow will push more humid and somewhat
warmer air into the region, and guidance depicts a surface trough
developing inland. Thus, conditions should become more favorable for
showers/thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will impact some/all terminals with gusty winds and
brief flight restrictions as a cold front advances into the region
by 06z. Then, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of
the 00z TAF period. Of note, patchy fog could develop overnight,
especially at terminals which received rain, and a thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon, especially at KFLO, KLBT and
KILM. However, the probability of these events remain to low to
justify any mention/associated flight restrictions within 00Z TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Low probability for brief flight restrictions in
daybreak stratus/fog at inland sites. Also, any showers or
thunderstorms could produce brief flight restrictions Saturday
afternoon/evening and then again Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southwest flow will remain elevated near Advisory
range early ahead of an approaching cold front which will move
through after midnight. A weaker pressure gradient late will
result in lighter winds and improving conditions. Also,
scattered thunderstorms could be severe this evening prior to
the frontal passage.

Saturday through Wednesday: Offshore winds in the wake of cold fropa
will quickly give way to the sea breeze Saturday afternoon, then
south/southwest winds will prevail until the next cold front passes
late Sunday night or Monday. During this time, winds should remain
capped at 15 knots, and seas should average 2-3 feet. Then, winds
will swing into the northeast as high pressure expands south Monday
through Tuesday. While we cannot rule out marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions, winds have been capped at 15-20 knots, and seas
should most likely remain no higher than 3-4 feet. Late Tuesday
through midweek, the high pressure will shift offshore, and winds
are expected to veer through east/southeast to south. By Wednesday,
south winds could average 15-20 knots, accompanied by seas of 2-4
feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-020015-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well,
mainly near and north of Wilmington.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-020015-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

AMZ250-252-020015-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

AMZ254-256-020015-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
802 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ087-099-SCZ024-033-059-010015-
Robeson-Columbus-Marion-Northern Horry-Dillon-
750 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ROBESON...WEST CENTRAL COLUMBUS...SOUTHEASTERN DILLON...NORTHWESTERN
HORRY AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 750 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Kemper to Rains, and
moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Mullins, Fair Bluff, Lake View, Galivants Ferry, Fork, Smithboro,
Kemper and Gapway.

LAT...LON 3438 7894 3405 7912 3397 7917 3408 7941
      3442 7923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 280DEG 19KT 3432 7920 3410 7935

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